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Devon in 2038 and how should it affect our strategic planning now?

Devon in 2038 and how should it affect our strategic planning now? Report of the work of Devon Futures Group. Devon Futures. Who are we? Met Office Rob Varley EDF Mike Davy Devon & Cornwall Business Council Tim Jones Devon Wildlife Trust Paul Gompertz

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Devon in 2038 and how should it affect our strategic planning now?

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  1. Devon in 2038 and how should it affect our strategic planning now? Report of the work of Devon Futures Group

  2. Devon Futures • Who are we? • Met Office Rob Varley • EDF Mike Davy • Devon & Cornwall Business Council Tim Jones • Devon Wildlife Trust Paul Gompertz • Environment Agency Paul Sadler • Dartington Hall Trust Vaughan Lindsay • Devon Community Council of Devon Jay Talbot • DCC strategic intelligence Pip Tucker • DCC Community Strategy Ian Hobbs • DCC Environment, Economy & Culture Edward Chorlton • Devon and Cornwall Housing Association Theresa Butchers • DSP Caroline Rae • Facilitator Nicola Channon

  3. What we tried to do • We were asked to think about, and try to understand, what Devon might be like in the future. • We heard evidence from experts in climate, energy, housing, transport, agriculture, and the environment • We tried to think about what impact all this might have on our lives and what we should be doing now to respond

  4. Work in progress

  5. 1979

  6. What made us sit up and take notice?

  7. Natural or human induced?

  8. 1,800 40 1,700 35 1,600 30 1,500 C o 1,400 25 no. of deaths 1,300 temperature 20 1,200 1,100 15 Average daily deaths 1998-2002 ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003 1,000 Maximum temperature (London) 10 900 800 5 01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug UK impactsHeatwaves: Summer 2003

  9. 2060s 2040s 2003 Devon impactsHeatwaves: The future observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C

  10. Axminster

  11. Axminster

  12. So what? • ‘Perfect storm’ of increasing demand for food, energy & water at same time as adapting to and mitigating climate change • Implications for size/shape of sector – less oil more labour? • Implications for how land is used and managed –reduced soil disturbance • Implications for protected areas • Implications for research and intelligence

  13. In the past energy demand has mainly been driven by GDP and demographic growth • GDP and population growth are the two main factors that have increase energy demand • If this continued UK energy demand would increase slightly until 2030 • Electricity and solid fuel consumption should grow the fastest + 8.5% Source: Global Insight 2008 European Energy and Environment Outlook (last actual year 2007).

  14. But fighting Climate Change will have a high impact on energy demand UK CO2 emissions (million tonnes) • Tackling climate change requires a step change in energy consumption.Government’s target is to cut Greenhouse Gases emissions by 80% in 2050 (compared to 1990 level) • Decarbonising electricity is a key step towards the target.The Climate Change Committee believes the electricity sector can reduce its emissions by 90% by 2030 by using wind and nuclear generation. • Low CO2 electricity will then make a major contribution to decarbonising other sectors by substituting fossil fuels Other (with non CO2 GHG) 124 Total 80% reduction from 1990 Industry 108 Heat (Residential and Commercial) 103 Electricity Reduction by 2030 Transport (with Aviation & shipping) 176 Electricity 184 159 2006 emissions 2050 Target Source: Climate Change Committee, EDF Energy Analysis

  15. Other points • 8-10 year time lag between knowing what is true and then acting upon it • Period over the next 30 years – not just about 2039 but also about how we get there. • Fortune favours the prepared mind.

  16. So what? • This is not just about climate change or reducing carbon, although they are important, it is about what we should be doing now to prepare for an uncertain future.

  17. So what might Devon be like?

  18. Getting to workwell done for creating work hubsstill too much congestion

  19. Health and wellbeing • noticeably more elderly people • not enough carers • booming senior citizens social scene

  20. Adapting to climate change - people more resilient to flooding; self-help worked - difficult development choices not made

  21. Energy security - local community combined heat and power embraced - periodic blackouts for some, not for others

  22. DSP ConferenceDecember 2039 Devon 2069 – are we ready?

  23. Your job – in groups • What can DSP do to plan for the scenarios in the future? • Each group identify 3 items to feed back to the conference

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