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Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 9, 2010

Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 9, 2010. The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Long Term Strategy Review The View from 90,000 feet Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader March 9, 2011 www.madhedgefundtrader.com.

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Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 9, 2010

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  1. Please Stand ByJohn Thomas for Macro MillionaireWednesday, March 9, 2010 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST

  2. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Long Term Strategy ReviewThe View from 90,000 feetDiary of a Mad Hedge Fund TraderMarch 9, 2011www.madhedgefundtrader.com

  3. The Global Long/Short Portfolio StocksBondsForeign CurrenciesCommoditiesPrecious MetalsReal estate*Across sectors, markets, instruments, and borders.*Long underpriced , fast growing assets.*Short Overpriced, no growth assets.*Emphasis on absolute returns on all market conditions*Aggressive risk control through dynamic hedging.

  4. Instruments EquitiesOptionFutures ContractsConvertible BondsExchange Traded Funds (ETF’s)Foreign CurrenciesBonds-Government, Corporate, Sovereign

  5. Tools *Fundamental Research*Technical analysis*Quantitative analysis*Flow of funds analysis*A 40 year network of global contacts

  6. Major Long Term Trends *The growth of the global population*The rise of the emerging market middle class*The scarcity of essential natural resources*The shift from paper to hard assets*Demographic Investing*The rise of technology*Deflation and then inflationthe mixing and matching of multiple trends

  7. The Procreation Trade *A trend you can absolutely rely on*It’s a million year trend*Has entered its exponential growth phase*Is unstoppable

  8. The Reverend Thomas Malthus1766-1834 *The father of demography*Linear growth of food supplies*Exponential growth of populations*Utopia is unattainable because resource shortages bring famine,disease, and wars.*His Solution: Virtuous behavior*My solution: Buy Hard Assets

  9. Population Changes 2010-2050 *2 billion new people*More than half of the increase will be in Islamic countries.Islamic population growth from 1 to 2 billion The war against terrorism will not end in 4 years*Population levels off in Latin America, Africa, ChinaChina’s one child policy has cut growth by 400 million*Population shrinks in Japan and levels off in Europe*US population levels off at 400 million in 2050from the current 300 million The immigration advantage: Add 1%/year of GDP growth *175,000 new customers a daysource: CIA Fact Book

  10. Trading DemographicsIndia is a buy Rising populations create ever more consumers and little need for social services mean strong GDP growth, small budget deficits and a strong currency.Source: US Census Bureau

  11. India ETF (PIN)

  12. If Demographics is Destiny, then America’s Future is Scary. Source: US Census Bureau Aging population and falling birth rate brings a slower growing GDP, a growing demand for social services, rising budget deficits, and a weak currency. Source: US Census Bureau

  13. At Least the US is Not Japan (Yet) By 2030 Japan will have only two workers for every retiree, bringing no GDP growth, huge demands for social services, enormous budget deficits, and a collapsing currency.Conclusion: Short the yen (YCS) and the Japanese government bond and stock markets.Source: Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare

  14. Japan’s Nikkei Average 1970-2011

  15. The Rise of the Emerging Market Middle Class • 1980 Global Middle Class580 million2010 Global Middle Class 900 million (add China)2050 Global Middle Class2 billion (add India, more China, Latin America, and other emerging markets)1980 35% US exports to emerging markets2010 54% source: World Bank

  16. Rising Purchasing Power of the Global Middle Class • 1975-2010*China’s per capita income rosefrom $100 to $3,000/year,versus $46,000 for the US*South Korean wages rose from 5%of US wages to 65%*The US job drain overseas ispeaking now, as emerging marketsprice themselves out of the marketsource: CIA Fact Book

  17. Should We Invest in Paper Assets or Hard Assets? or

  18. Paper Assets • Stocks, bonds, derivatives,loans, promissory notes1)potential supply is infinite2)just turn on a printing press3) Several countries are competing toprint as much as possible in a race to the bottom4) Risk of Inflation is great5) Both political parties inflate as much as they can to assure reelection.

  19. The Demise of the DollarUS Dollar Purchasing Power Parity 1776-2010 Key dates: 1835- Andrew Jackson Closed the Bank of the United States1860-Civil War begins massive government borrowing.1933- Franklin D. Roosevelt devalues dollar, bans gold ownership1939-WWII begins, 1961-Vietnam War Begins1971-Richard Nixon ends the gold standard

  20. TechnologyThe Exception to the rule • *One of few areas where earnings growth is so high that it outweighs the other negatives of paper assets.*Companies that still make stuff people want to buy.*Are in effect foreign companies, with 60%-80% of sales outside US.*The perfect way to surf the technology wave.

  21. Apple (AAPL) +21% since Macro Millionaire started

  22. Hard Assets • Commodity Bottlenecks1) 5 years to bring to market2) Enormous capital markets3) Equipment shortages4) Shortage of specialist engineers5) Financial crisis created two yearbubble in the pipeline6) Environmental approvals7) Infrastructure requirements (road, pipelines, water, electric power)8) 25 years of under investment 1980-2005Bottom Line: Linear growth cannot meet exponential demand

  23. Malthusian Economics Applied to Commodities

  24. What Happens to Hard Asset Prices?Exponential Growth overwhelms linear supply

  25. Hard Asset Classes • Precious metals gold, silver, platinumCommodity producing currencies Australian, Canadian dollarsEnergy oil, gas, coal, natural gas, uraniumRaw Materials Copper, Iron ore, rare earths, titanium, zinc, nickelFood corn, wheat, soybeans, fertilizer, seedsReal Estate agricultural land, emerging market commercial real estateCommodity Producing ETF’s Russia, Australia, Canada

  26. Gold • *Peak Gold is upon us*Return of high inflation*Cost of production rising(power shortages in South Africa)*Exploitable mines are shrinking (ABA) at 15,000 feet in the Andes*End of EC central bank selling*Emerging Market Central Bank bidding war*Rise of the Emerging market middle class limited history of paper money*Limited supply and a small market

  27. Gold +9% since Macro Millionaire started

  28. Other Precious Metals • Silver-rising industrial demand cultural preferences-Latin AmericaPlatinum-Only 4 producing mines (South Africa 80%, Russia 10%) Revival of the car industry 9 million to 15 million units/year to 2015. Cultural preference-JapanPalladium- Catalytic converters spill over collector demand

  29. Silver+44% since Macro Millionaire started

  30. Energy OilPeak oil is 5 years offMiddle East Instability emerging market demand is the main driver rising monetary demand for oil 150 year head start in infrastructureCoal 50% US energy supply cap & trade won’t happen in our lifetime huge exports to emerging marketsUranium rebirth of the nuclear industry China is building 100 nuclear power plants by 2020Natural Gas Forget it. Discovery of a 100 year US supply

  31. Oil+27% since Macro Millionaire started

  32. Raw Materials • Iron OreCopperRare EarthsAluminiumLumberZincNickel

  33. Food *Global Food stockpiles at 20 year lows*We need another green revolution*40% of wheat producing world is in draught *Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Fertilizer*Rising quality of food demanded byemerging populations. One pound of beef requires 16 pounds of grain.

  34. Corn+20% since Macro Millionaire started

  35. Commodity Producing CurrenciesAustralian (FXA) and Canadian Dollars (FXC)+5% Since Macro Millionaire started

  36. Commodity Producing Stock MarketsAustralia (EWA), Canada (EWC), Russia (RSX)+8% since Macro Millionaire started

  37. Real Estate *Dead Money for 10 years*Massive supply meets limited financing*The end of federal subsidized financing (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac)*Replay of zero return 1929-1955*Who is Kathleen Casey-Kirschling? Hint: birthday January 1, 1946

  38. The Silver Tsunami *80 million boomers born between 1946 and 1954*10,000 a day are now retiring*Social Security turns cash flow negative by 2017*Social Security runs out of money in 2041*Boomers will be followed by only 65 million gen-Xer’s*don’t count on selling your house to your kids, especially if they are still living in the basement

  39. Where Do Retirees Live? 3.6 million retiring baby boomers per year are creating enormous downward pressure on real estate prices as they downsize from 2,500 square foot homes to 1,000 sq ft condos, to 100 sq ft rooms at assisted living facilities.Dumps 4.3 billion sq ft. of housing on the market every year for 22 years=430 World Trade Centers

  40. US Homes For Sale • 1 million new homes4 million used homes1 million bank seized20 million-sell on any uptick (Zillow.com survey)26 million total versus 4.9 million actual= 5years of inventoryOne out of 5 American Homesis for sale or is about to hitthe marketHow many homes do boomers own?

  41. Conspicuous Non-Buyers • 35 million unemployed, including those whose benefits have expired and discouraged workers.35 million existing homeowners with negative home equity.70 million total missing buyers out of a US home market of 140 million.Best case: long grind in prices sidewaysWorst case: down another 20% triggering a second bank crisis.

  42. How Low Can They Go?Case-Shiller Real Estate Price Index

  43. Trading With The Mad Hedge Fund Trader • Buy and Hold is Dead!Long term model portfolio*Constant updates with a full report explaining every change.Short Term Trading Portfolio*A real time trading book updated with email alerts.Continuing Education*A comprehensive daily newsletter explaining the long term trends affecting global markets.*Continuous video updates with an extensive Question and Answer period.*Live Interviews with major hedge fund industry figures.Strategy LuncheonsNew York, London, Paris, Phoenix, San Francisco, Chicago, Geneva, Milan

  44. To Access my Research Data Base Please Go towww.madhedgefundtrader.com

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