1 / 0

Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 2, 2010

Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 2, 2010. The Webinar will Start at 12:00 EST. Macro Millionaire John Thomas The Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Position Update Flight of the Black Swans-Special Armageddon Issue.

colman
Download Presentation

Please Stand By John Thomas for Macro Millionaire Wednesday, March 2, 2010

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Please Stand ByJohn Thomas for Macro MillionaireWednesday, March 2, 2010 The Webinar will Start at 12:00 EST
  2. Macro MillionaireJohn ThomasThe Mad Hedge Fund Trader Position UpdateFlight of the Black Swans-Special Armageddon Issue
  3. Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com March 31, 2011 New York City, 12:00 noonApril 28, 2011 Phoenix, Arizona
  4. Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com April 4, 2011 London, England 12:00 noonApril 8, 2011 Paris, France 12:00 noon
  5. Performance February -3.97% (final) March first day +2.18%First 12 weeks of Trading+ 18.81% Versus 11.1% for the S&P500
  6. Decent OutperformanceS&P 500 +11.1%
  7. Portfolio ReviewMaintainingModest shorts For details please log into the “Macro Millionaire” website members page
  8. Here Come the Black Swans *The crash risk is rising*Prepare now for the coming flood*Learn the hedge fund techniques for protecting your assets
  9. The Coming Real Estate Disaster *A further 30% fall in home prices is in the cards*All stimulus has failedhuge state and federal tax subsidies ($18,000 in CA) 30 year mortgage rates at 50 year lows (4.4%)*A ten year supply overhangs the market 5 years in existing and shadow inventory 5 years of pressure from retiring baby boomers*Banks will only lend to borrowers who don’t need the money*Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are about to disappear- no help from congressadd 200 bp for a privatized market*What happens when interest rates rise?
  10. A Secondary Banking Crisis *Banks still carrying huge unrealized loan losses on the books-the Fed knows this, I know this, and now you know it.*Counting on economic growth to bail them out over the long term-not going to get it-downshifting from a 3.9% to 2% world*Falling home prices will magnify these losses before the old losses are recapitalized*No more TARP’s-last bail out was hugely unpopular, current balance in Washington won’t permit it.*Bottom line-we lose a few more big banks
  11. Beware the “New Normal” *Lower long term economic growth rates can’t support higher PE multiplesdownshifting from a 3.9% to 2% world Check out he PIMCO website-Bill Gross & Mohamed El Erian*30 year multiple range of 10-22*New Multiple range of 10-16* Stocks are no bargain here at a 15 multiple*This is what lost decades are made of
  12. Coming Collapse of the Dollar *The trade deficit overwhelms our services surplus*A weak dollar assures imported inflation*A falling dollar forces rising interest rates*Oil is throwing the fat on the fireArabs are recycling their reserves among a broader range of currencies*Not a new trend
  13. The Continuing Collapse of the Treasury Market *The fat lady has already sung*The government’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) says the national debt will rise from $14 trillion to $20 trillion by 2020*By 2020, debt service rises from 4% of the budget to 20%*The high interest rates this demands will send the US economy into a death spiral*The US will never recover from the 2000-2010 debt binge*Permanently higher unemployment andlower American standards of living arethe out come*Where did the consumer go?*Consumer spending still70% of the economy
  14. Treasury Bond PricesTen year yields from 2.3% to 4.7% in six months
  15. The Printing Press Will Only Bring Tears *The Fed is committed to buying $600 billion worth of Treasury bonds in six months.*It has already bought $1 trillion*This new cash is stoking runaway commodity price inflation*CPI showing 2.5% inflation is bogus, conceals true picture*Cotton-highest prices since the Civil War – up 215% from 2010 lows*Oil – up 54%*Corn + 84%*Copper +71%*Silver +134%*A gridlocked Washington is more interested in scoring debating points than finding a viable solution
  16. According to the Fed, This is not inflation+215%
  17. Nor is This+134%
  18. The Powder Keg in the Middle East *Risks to our energy supply are vastly understated in the market*Of 20 million barrels/day of US consumption, 10 million comes from abroad*2 million barrels/day comes from the middle East*US forces now primarily protecting China’s oil supply *Saudi Arabia produces 12 million barrels/day*Libya produces 1.5 million barrels/day*Since oil is a globally traded commodity,takes out one source of supply and we all pay*Bring back the 1970’s gas lines
  19. Protect Your Wealth *“Buy and Hold” is dead*Trade or perish*Think like a hedge fund manager*Learn the hedging techniques of the big hedge funds*Only enter limited risk high return positions*Learn the instruments to execute these strategies*Adopt a global “macro” long/short view*Identify the moving sectors buy the winners and short the losers*Rent, don’t buy
  20. The Worst Case Scenario All of the above happens at the same time!2011?2012?2013?Whenever it comes, you must prepare now
  21. Trade Sheet *Stocks-The correction has started, sell rallies short, emerging markets getting trashed*Wait for the big dip*Commodities- Selling off, buy the coming lows*Currencies-sell the yen and euro, *Precious Metals- overbought once again*Volatility-Run your longs, still rising*Real estate-the next down leg has begun
  22. Macro Millionairewith John Thomaswww.macromillionaire.com
More Related