Presentation Transcript

1. Please Stand ByJohn Thomas for Macro MillionaireWednesday, September 7, 2011 The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST
2. The Mad Hedge Fund TraderStill Searching for a Bottom Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund TraderSeptember 7, 2011www.macromillionaire.com
3. Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com Friday, September 16 Seattle Friday, Sept. 23, 2011 Las Vegas
4. Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com Auckland, New Zealand Sydney, Australia October 10, 2011 October 11, 2011
5. Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com Brisbane, AustraliaOctober 17, 2011 SingaporeOctober 18, 2011
6. Macro Millionaire PerformanceMonday Figures *September 12.34% MTD*First 38 weeks of Trading+ 34.93%*Versus -1.6% for the S&P500since November, 2010 31 out of 36 closed trades profitable1 out of 4 open trade profitable80% success rate
7. Portfolio ReviewTrade or Die *
8. The Economy *The August Nonfarm bombshell*Will the other shoe fall?*Obama’s jobs proposal*Are we finishing a severe correction?*Or seeing the first phase of a prolonged bear market*Dealing with confidence shattered by the Tea PartyDefault threat that led up to S&P Treasury downgrade
9. Bonds *Discounting the Fed’s next policy: Twist*Going for the ultimate yield curve flattening*A twist policy will kill the (TBT)*Will twist at last put in the top?*A shortage of government borrowing*Interest rates at 60 year lows*Negative real yields are huge.*I still see a multigenerational topping process unfolding
10. (TLT)
11. (TBT)
12. StocksSearching for a bottom *Expect volatility to continue*A traders Dream come true*The meek don’t inherit the earth*When in doubt, pull the trigger*Use a hedged approachbalanced “RISK ON/RISK OFF” portfoliowhile market trendless*When a trend reasserts, dump the losing leg
13. (SPY)
14. Bank of America (BAC)
15. (VIX)
16. The Dollar *Swiss franc short was the trade of the year*Central banks always win in the end*Reinforcing the legend of Jackson Hole*German supreme court decision approvingGreek bail out gives Euro respite*Euro is next on the chopping blocka new $1.36-$1.40 range?*Get ready to jump into Australian dollaras a big “RISK ON” trade
17. Swiss franc (FXF)
18. (UUP)
19. (FXE)
20. Australian Dollar (FXA)
21. (YCS)
22. Energy *Watch oil for your tip off for “RISK ON”/”RISK OFF”*Notice that the crude chart is identical tothe (SPX) chart*Caught in a $80-$90 trading range*Huge oversupply in the US versus shortage in Europe*Over supply killing natural gas*Marcellus shale reserves 2 trillion BTU’s to 80 trillion
23. OIL
24. Oil ETF (USO)
25. Natural Gas
26. Gotta Love that Matterhorn!
27. Precious Metals *Gold is trying to put in an intermediate term top*Is the double top in place at $1,910-$1920?*or are we trading a $1,700-$1,900 rangeprior to an upside break out?*Volatility is extreme*My long term target is still $2,300*Industrial metals, platinum and palladium, arepredicting a recovery in the economy
28. Gold
29. Silver
30. (Platinum)
31. Palladium
32. The Ags *(CORN) is taking the lead*Huge Chinese buying continues*Terrible heat in Texas shrinkingcrop estimates*“RISK OFF” keeps beating up a long termfundamental bull trend*Try to get into ag suppliers, fertilizer, and equipment stocks
33. (CORN)
34. (JJG)
35. Real EstateMay
36. Trade SheetThe bottom line: Trade or die *Stocks-Buy the big dips, sell the big rallies*Bonds- go short, sell rallies*Commodities- buy the dips*Currencies-sell Euro rallies, buy Aussie dips*Precious Metals- go short through out of the money puts*Volatility-stand aside, too high*The ags – wait for a bigger dip*Real estate-bouncing along a bottomNext Webinar is on Wednesday, September 21
37. To access my research data base or buy strategy luncheon tickets Please Go towww.madhedgefundtrader.com