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System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning

System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning. Janice Peterson. System and Data Requirements Session Overview. Emissions Estimation (Janice Peterson) Fire Emissions Inventories (Sam Sandberg) Fire Activity Tracking (Mike Hilbruner) Monitoring (Jim Russell)

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System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning

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  1. System and Data Requirementsfor Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson

  2. System and Data Requirements Session Overview • Emissions Estimation (Janice Peterson) • Fire Emissions Inventories (Sam Sandberg) • Fire Activity Tracking (Mike Hilbruner) • Monitoring (Jim Russell) • F-CAMMS Modeling Consortia's (Doug Fox) • BlueSky (Sue Ferguson) • Technology Transfer Session

  3. Wildfire PM2.5 Compared to Other US Sources

  4. Wildfire can emit as muchPM2.5 in a day as the largest point orhighest area source (county total) does in a year

  5. Estimating Emissions • Basic Data Requirements • Area Burned • Fuel Load • Fuel Consumption • Emission Factor

  6. Estimating Emissions • Basic Data Requirements • Area Burned • Fuel Load • Fuel Consumption • Emission Factor

  7. Estimating Emissions • Basic Data Requirements • Area Burned • Fuel Load • Fuel Consumption • Emission Factor

  8. Estimating Emissions • Basic Data Requirements • Area Burned • Fuel Load • Fuel Consumption • Emission Factor

  9. Data Complexity Can Add Accuracy

  10. Biscuit Fire Example - Acres • Biscuit Fire • 499,965 acres • PM2.5 Emissions • 115,492 tons

  11. Acres Burned – Acres Black • Biscuit Fire • 499,965 acres • 99,993 unburned or very low severity • PM2.5 Emissions • 92,394 tons

  12. Biscuit Fire Severity • 499,965 acres • 99,993 unburned or very low • 204,986 low • 114,992 moderate • 79,994 high

  13. Burn Characteristics Affect Emissions

  14. Data Needs for Emissions Estimation – Wildfire and Rx Fire • Acres (*systematic overestimation?) • Acres black (reported or modeled) • Acres by severity • Fuel Type Maps • Reported fuel loading • Fuel loading by size class • Fuel moisture mapping • Reported fuel moisture • Reported fuel consumption

  15. Emissions vs. ….

  16. Emissions vs. ….Impacts

  17. Dispersion Modeling: Promises vs. Realities

  18. Dispersion Modeling Accuracy • Model sophistication (EPA certification) • Meteorology • Ignition Duration • Fuel Moisture • Flaming vs. Smoldering Consumption • Fuel Loading • ??

  19. Monitoring • Accurate for impacts. • Expensive, time consuming, difficult. • What is our responsibility? • Wildfire • Rx Fire • Compliance • Reality vs. perception • Nuisance smoke

  20. System and Data Requirements Session Overview • Emissions Estimation (Janice Peterson) • Fire Emissions Inventories (Sam Sandberg) • Fire Activity Tracking (Mike Hilbruner) • Monitoring (Jim Russell) • F-CAMMS Modeling Consortia's (Doug Fox) • BlueSky (Sue Ferguson) • Technology Transfer Session

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