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Climate, Fire and Air Quality. Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006. Research Team. USDA Forest Service Don McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim Larkin WSU Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Jack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe Vaughan University of Washington

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climate fire and air quality

Climate, Fire andAir Quality

Climate Impacts Group

June 1, 2006

research team
Research Team
  • USDA Forest Service
    • Don McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim Larkin
  • WSU Laboratory for Atmospheric Research
    • Jack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe Vaughan
  • University of Washington
    • Eric Salathe, Cliff Mass, Jeremy Littell, Robert Norheim
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research
    • Alex Guenther, Christine Wiedinmyer
goals and funding support
Goals and Funding Support
  • USDA Forest Service HAZE Project
    • Analyze impacts of Fire Emissions on Regional Haze at Class I Wilderness Areas in terms of a Changing Climate.
  • EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Project (Grant # RD83096201)
    • Impact of Global Change on US and Northwest Air Quality, with particular emphasis on the role of fire, biogenic emissions, and Asian emissions.
visibility degradation
Visibility Degradation
  • Fort Collins, CO
  • Bext = 70/Mm
  • Occurred twice since 2000
  • WinHaze v2.9.6
modeling domains

Left: PCM and MOZART2 global model domain at 2.8o by 2.8o resolution with 18 layers.

Right: CMAQ domains at 36 and nested 12 km resolutions with 17 layers

Modeling Domains
modeling approach
Modeling Approach

Climate/Meteorology

Emissions

  • Air Quality Model
  • Visibility
  • Particulate Matter
  • Ozone Formation
  • Wet & Dry Deposition
modeling approach1
Modeling Approach

Climate/Meteorology

Emissions

Global

(IPCC A2)

PCM

MOZART2

FSB (Fire)

MEGAN (Biogenics)

NEI/EDGAR

(Anthropogenic)

Regional

MM5

Preprocess

for IC/BC

MCIP

SMOKE

CMAQ

Air Quality

modeling approach global scale
Modeling ApproachGlobal Scale
  • Parallel Climate Model (PCM)
    • Simulations provided by NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Division
  • Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) v2 with Aerosols
    • Simulations provided by Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Division)
    • Provide IC/BC
      • Asian transport impacts
modeling approach global scale1
Modeling ApproachGlobal Scale
  • IPCC SRES A2 Scenario – Business as Usual
    • worst projected emissions
    • heterogeneous world
    • regional self-reliance
    • large global population
modeling approach2
Modeling Approach

Climate/Meteorology

Emissions

Global

(IPCC A2)

PCM

MOZART2

FSB (Fire)

MEGAN (Biogenics)

NEI/EDGAR

(Anthropogenic)

Regional

MM5

Preprocess

for IC/BC

CMAQ

MCIP

SMOKE

Air Quality

modeling approach regional scale
Modeling ApproachRegional Scale
  • Meteorology – MM5
  • Emissions
    • Anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR (future) and 1999 NEI (current)
    • Fire Emissions from historical db and Fire Scenario Builder (FSB).
    • Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN)
      • Biogenic emissions, 1-km resolution, multi-scale
      • Canopy scale model (vs. leaf level)
      • Accounts for: light, leaf area index, solar angle, temperature, RH, wind speed, soil moisture.
fire emissions modeling
Fire Emissions Modeling

MM5

  • Use heat released from the fire to calculate plume rise to allocate emissions vertically in the atmosphere.
  • A portion of the fire emissions are treated as smoldering emissions and allocated to the lowest model layer.
  • CAPE
  • NFDRS
  • Fuel Moistures

Fire Scenario Builder

  • BlueSky-EM
  • FCCS
  • EPM

SMOKE

pm2 5 emissions from fire
PM2.5 Emissions from Fire

2045 - 2055

1990 - 1999

megan biogenic emissions
MEGAN: Biogenic Emissions
  • Terpenes – Particulate Matter Formation
  • Isoprene – Ozone Chemistry
modeling approach regional scale1
Modeling ApproachRegional Scale
  • MCIP
  • SMOKE
  • Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system
    • Ozone
    • Primary emission and secondary formation of Aerosols
    • Visibility
    • Gridded eulerian model
    • Wet and Dry Deposition
project status details
Project Status & Details
  • Simulations
    • Current Climate 1990 – 1999
    • Future Climate 2045 – 2054
  • Computing Requirements
    • Two 20 node LINUX clusters available (WSU, FS)
    • MM5: 2 TB per decade, 36 km domain
    • CMAQ: 1 TB per decade, 36 km domain
  • Status
    • 36 km current climate done (MM5 and CMAQ)
    • 36 km future climate – MM5 done, July only for CMAQ
    • Incorporating FSB Fire Emission Inventory in to future climate case.
    • Starting MM5 12 km domain simulation (current and future)
preliminary results surface level ozone
Preliminary Results:Surface Level Ozone

8-hr Average of 10 July Months

Current Climate Future Climate

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