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The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center

The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center. 8 December, 2008. Chris Landsea. National Hurricane Center, Miami. The Joint Hurricane Testbed. JHT – Why is it needed? Transition process What has been accomplished

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The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center

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  1. The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center 8 December, 2008 Chris Landsea National Hurricane Center, Miami

  2. The Joint Hurricane Testbed

  3. JHT – Why is it needed? Transition process What has been accomplished What projects are being tested currently What is in process for FY09 (and beyond) Who is involved with the JHT… Joint Hurricane Testbed

  4. The Forecasters (us): The Researchers (them): How to bridge the “valley of death”?

  5. JHT Mission Statement The mission of the Joint Hurricane Test Bed is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the United States Weather Research, its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.

  6. JHT Process • Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA • A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals • Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction with NHC/ Environmental Modeling Center points of contact • At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff • Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC staff/PIs

  7. What Have We Accomplished - 2001-2008 • Projects supported (rounds 1-4) – 50 • Projects ongoing (round 4) - 10 • Projects completed (rounds 1-3) – 40 • Completed projects not accepted – 5 • Completed projects pending further evaluation – 5 • Projects accepted for implementation – 30 • Projects accepted, not fully implemented – 3.5 • Projects implemented (NHC/EMC/NCO) – 26.5 Dedicated NHC, EMC & JHT staff, and close collaborations between the PIs, points-of-contact and support staff is the key.

  8. 2008 Major Activities • Completion of the third round projects • Principal Investigators provide final report - Aug 2007 • Final evaluation (NHC/EMC POCs & JHT) – Sep-Dec 2007 • Decision on acceptance for implementation (NHC and EMC Directors) – Jan 2008 • 4 criteria for acceptance • 12 projects accepted • 3 projects deferred pending further evaluation • Implementaton – Jan-Jul 2008 • 11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC

  9. Factors Considered in NHC Decisionson Operational Implementation • Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy • Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs • Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. • Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support

  10. Implementation (NHC) • Some relative easy • Some very complicated • NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE on implementation • JHT IT facilitator assists in the process • NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed Operational Centers are not funded for this task

  11. Highlights of 3rd Round Implemented Projects Topographic Wind Effects - Miller VORTRAC – Lee/Bell/Harasti GFDL – Bender HWRF – Tuleya, Powell OLD GFDL (2) NEW GFDL (4) OLD GFS (1) NEW GFS (3)

  12. Highlights of 3rd Round Implemented Projects Inclusion of Dropsonde Moisture into GFS – Aberson/Dunion Revised SHIPS intensity forecast scheme – DeMaria/Knaff Wind Radii Decay Model - Kaplan Corrected Consensus Track Forecasts - Goerss

  13. Highlights of 3rd Round Implemented Projects Improvements to ATCF operating system - Sampson Enhancements to Wind Probability Products – Knaff/DeMaria Wind Radii Decay Model - Kaplan SFMR - Carswell/Black

  14. Sea state under Hurricane Isabel Breaking waves Wind-blown streaks

  15. Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer • Measures nadir brightness temperature at 6 C-band frequencies. • Geophysical model function relates emissivity to wind speed. Emissivity depends on surface foam coverage and rain rate. • Calibrated with GPS dropsonde data. • First data from C-130s in 2007.

  16. NOAA SFMR 29 Aug 0930 UTC Air Force 29 Aug 0930 UTC

  17. C130s Now Equipped with SFMR Thanks to: HRD, AOC, RSS, NESDIS, ProSensing, CARCAH, AF 53rd Reconn. Squad. Air Force 29 Aug 0930 UTC

  18. Cont. 2008 Major Activities • Second year funding renewal for 4th round projects – Mar 2008 • Testing of 4th round projects – Jun-Nov 2008 • Collaboration with PI • Programming • Establishing data flow • Generating output for forecaster use/evaluation

  19. 4th Round Project Focus Areas

  20. JHT Fourth Round (FY07-08) Projects Intensity, structure, and track projects

  21. JHT Fourth Round (FY07-08) Projects Intensity, structure, and track projects

  22. 4th Round (FY08) Funding DistributionTotal $1.03M State/Private Universities 32% NOAA 19% Navy (NPS, NRL) 15% NASA 11% Private Companies 23%

  23. Cont. 2008 Major Activities • Preparing for 5th round projects • Draft Federal Funding Opportunity - Mar 2008 • Centers priorities • Evaluation criteria • Publishing FFO (Jul 2008) • Review of Pre-applications (Sep 2008) • PIs submitting full proposals (Oct 2008) • Review of full proposals (ongoing)

  24. Challenges for FY09 • Fifth round funding processes • Steering committee review proposals • Rank and select proposals for funding • Work with Grants Office to fund selected projects • Find Point of contacts among NHC forecasters and support staff • Work with PIs to setup timelines for their projects • Test and evaluation • Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 4th and 5th round projects • Manage 4th & 5th round projects • Progress reports • Final reports for 4th round projects • POC feedback • JHT final review/reports • Implementation of newly accepted 4th projects (NHC) (FY10)

  25. What does it take to support the JHT? JHT Staff: • Jiann-Gwo Jiing (JHT Director) • Jose Salazar (JHT IT specialist) • Shirley Murillo (JHT Admin. Asst.) • Chris Landsea (JHT Admin. Asst.) JHT Steering Committee: • Ed Rappaport (NHC – Co-chair) • John Gamache (Hurricane Research Division – Co-chari) • Jeff Hawkins (Naval Research Laboratory) • Naomi Surgi (Environmental Modeling Center) • Ed Fukada (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) • Hugh Willoughby (Florida International U) • Liz Ritchie (U Arizona) JHT principal investigators and other funded participants John Gaynor (US Weather Research Program) NHC and EMC forecasters and technical points of contacts NHC/Technical Support Branch IT staff

  26. The Visiting Scientist Program

  27. NHC Visiting Scientist Program • 2007 Hurricane Research Division “Shadowing” • Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program & NCEP’s Strategic Plan • NHC Visiting Scientist Guidelines • 2008 VSP Participants • 2008 VSP Presentations • Visiting Scientist Feedback • Hurricane Specialists Feedback • Possible Changes for 2009

  28. 2007 HRD Shadowing Program • In 2007, seven HRD researchers “shadowed” the Hurricane Specialists during swing shifts • Goals were to: 1) facilitate better understanding by HRD researchers of the NHC hurricane forecasting process including the tools and techniques used by the Hurricane Specialists; 2) open additional dialog between NHC-HRD that could lead to improvements in NHC’s analysis and prediction methodologies • HRD participants unanimously thought the program to be extremely beneficial • NHC Hurricane Specialists feedback was primarily favorable with several comments for improvements

  29. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project & NCEP Strategic Plan • Spring of 2008, HFIP plan developed which included: “to support research and technology development and training activities for external community at NOAA operational facilities (e.g., visiting scientists, Post-Docs, graduate students, professors) • Also Spring of 2008, NCEP Strategic Plan included: “expand the visiting scientist program at NCEP to leverage from the external community”

  30. Goals for the NHC Visiting Scientist Program • To facilitate better understanding by researchers/outside forecasters of the NHC hurricane forecasting process including the tools and techniques utilized by the Hurricane Specialists; • To open additional dialog between NHC and the research/outside forecast community that could lead to improvements in our analysis predictions methodologies

  31. 2008 Guidelines for Visiting Scientist Program • Program restricted to scientists that have interest/expertise in day-to-day hurricane forecasting operations • VS shadows the Hurricane Specialists during the swing shift • 7-7:30pm: Digest new model guidance • 7:30-8pm: Prepare Tropical Weather Outlooks (and graphics) • 8-9pm: Analyze the tropical cyclone (position, intensity, size, structure) • 8:30pm: Receive Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch and Satellite Analysis Branch Dvorak analyses • 9pm: Initialize guidance • 9-10pm: Generate track, intensity, size, and structure forecasts • 10pm: Conference call (for Atlantic tropical cyclones) • 10-11pm: Refine analyses and forecasts; write Public Advisory and Discussion • 11pm: Release Advisory package and produce graphics

  32. 2008 Guidelines for Visiting Scientist Program • Program restricted to scientists that have interest/expertise in day-to-day hurricane forecasting operations • VS shadows the Hurricane Specialists during the swing shift from 7-11pm • 11 VS participated with representatives from WFOs, government labs, academia, and other forecasting centers • Each VS would participate for one to five days • Scheduled developed for participants from July to October peak of the season • If a major hurricane threatened the US, the shadowing would be postponed/canceled • If there were no active tropical cyclones, the shadowing could be postponed • VS would not be performing any operational duties

  33. 2008 Guidelines for Visiting Scientist Program • VS encouraged to bring laptop to connect to wireless internet connection in event of significant down time • VS offered to spend time with our Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch • VS given opportunity to give a seminar on topic of their choosing • No funding was available to assist scientists for their visit

  34. 2008 Participants • 30 researchers/outside forecasters asked to participate • Jamie Rhome (then Hurricane Specialist), Robbie Berg (then TAFB Forecaster), and I selected the 11 participants to maximize the variety of groups represented: • Hurricane Research Division (Shirley Murillo, SimAberson) • Naval Research Laboratory (Jim Hansen) • University professor (Bob Houze – U Washington) • University grad student (Kevin Talgo – NCSU, Jon Moskaitis – MIT) • Weather Forecast Offices (Andy Devanas – Key West, Robert Bright – Charleston, Erik Pytlak – Tucson) • Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Andrea Schumacher) • Canadian Hurricane Center (Chris Fogarty)

  35. 2008 Presentations • Bob Houze - "Convective Contribution to the Genesis of Hurricane Ophelia (2005)" • Jim Hansen - "Advances in tropical cyclone track uncertainty guidance: Understanding why uncertainty looks the way it does" • Jon Moskaitis - "Verification of deterministic TC intensity forecasts: Beyond summary accuracy measures" • Andrea Schumacher – "Hurricane research in the Rockies:  An overview of recent research to operations activities at CIRA" • Erik Pytlak - "Northeast Pacific Tropical Cyclones in the Southwest US - Climatology, Impacts and Forecasting” • Chris Fogarty - "Canadian Hurricane Centre - Ongoing Operational and Development Activities"

  36. Visiting Scientist Comments • “The NHC Visiting Scientist Program was a fantastic experience.  In my view there is no way a research scientist can understand the operational problem unless he/she spends time in an operational environment observing and asking questions.  The NHC employees were all very generous with their time and insights and lessons learned during the trip have already modified my research agenda.” • “As a graduate student in the field of tropical meteorology, it was an excellent learning experience for myself and also of great benefit to the NC State meteorology department…It was fascinating to witness first-hand the challenges and pressure encountered by forecasters when a tropical cyclone is bearing down on the U.S. coast. “ • “I learned a lot more about NHC and TAFB products and services, the research NHC and universities are conducting on ET transitions, and the delicate workload balance NHC forecasters have to juggle when systems are affecting both the Atlantic and East Pacific.”

  37. Hurricane Specialists Comments • “I'd say the NHC Visiting Scientist Program has been hugely successful. I have enjoyed interacting with each of the guests,and I have found them to be very attentive and enthusiastic aboutNHC operations and programs. Any exchange of information is good,especially when it comes to our users acquiring a better understanding of our operations and products.” • “Overall, the interactions were positive and I believe that the individuals gained knowledge of the forecast process during the visit…I think we should try to focus much of this program on WFO personnel as this would certainly improve coordinate between NHC and WFOs and could assist in the development and implementation of the proposed collaborative NWS TC watches and warnings.”

  38. Possible Changes for 2009 • More formal interaction designed specifically with TAFB • Make available opportunity to visit WFO Miami/ HRD/UMiami/FIU in situations with no tropical cyclone activity • Provide funding from NCEP SOO pot-o-money for WFO participation • Include participation from other national centers and River Forecast Centers • Provide more NHC background information for VS participants • Guarantee that there will be an active tropical cyclone during the VS stay…

  39. Visiting Scientist ProgramScenes from NHC, TAFB, Miami WFO and AOML/HRD

  40. The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center 8 December, 2008 Chris Landsea National Hurricane Center, Miami

  41. NHC Contributions to JHT Logistics • Dedicated physical space in operations, offices Personnel • NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people • 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant • NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including TPC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staff • Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) • Programming, system administration, and network support • Administrative support Computing Resources • Network connectivity • Operational data flow

  42. JHT Infrastructure Personnel • Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) • 7-member Steering Committee • Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community • TPC member serves as co-Chair • Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) • One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) Computing Resources • Server and workstations • Software

  43. JHT 2nd Round Implemented Projects Track Uncertainty Estimates (Goerss) GFDL/URI Hurricane Model upgrades (Bender; Ginis) Inner Core SSTs (Cione) Rain-CLIPER & rainfall verification (Rogers) Genesis forecasting assessments (Harr) SHIPS & Wind Probabilities (DeMaria/Knaff) Doppler Winds (Gamache)

  44. JHT 2nd Round Projects - Implemented Spiral Analysis Hurricane Isabel 16 Sept 2003 00:15UTC Ring Analysis Combo Analysis Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (Kossin/Velden) Hurricane-Weather Research Forecasting Model (Tuleya) Rapid Intensification Index (Kaplan) Targeted Observations (Majumdar/Aberson) Ocean Modeling (Jacob) 5 day Climatology-Persistence Model (Aberson) HYCOM Ocean Model

  45. HWRF Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model Naomi Surgi HWRF Program Leader NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN

  46. HWRF TEAM Qingfu Liu, Veejay T, Y. Kwon, R. Tuleya, B. O’Connor (EMC), I. Ginis, Biju (URI), M. Powell (NOAA/HRD), C. Liou (NRL), J. Bao, C. Fairall, S. Michelson (NOAA/ESRL)

  47. THE HWRF SYSTEM 2007 Movable, 2- way nested grid (9km; 27km/42L; ~75X75) Advanced Physics (atm/ocean BL; tested in GFDL – the “benchmark”) Advanced vortex initialization - uses GSI 3D var (advancement over GFDL bogus) – assimilation of doppler radar data to run in development parallel POM ocean (w/loop current init – same as GFDL) WAVEWATCH III – static multi-grid nesting

  48. ATL Track Error ‘04, ‘05, ‘06 Avg. Some degradation at 120hr - mostly from ’04

  49. HWRF GFDL KATRINA (2005) TRACKS

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