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Gridded Marine Forecasts Status as of Oct 2009. Eric Christensen National Hurricane Center. What are gridded marine forecasts? … and how will they be used?.

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Gridded Marine Forecasts

Status as of Oct 2009

Eric Christensen

National Hurricane Center


What are gridded marine forecasts and how will they be used
What are gridded marine forecasts? … and how will they be used?

  • Geospatial database of integrated marine weather elements on a high resolution through space and time (12.5 km spatial resolution, 6 hour temporal resolution out five days)

  • Can be coupled with private sector software/communications systems. Useful for ship routing, oil rigs, commercial fishing, cruise ships, etc.

  • Can result in more efficient forecast operation with more consistent, higher quality products.


A reminder why gridded forecasts matter
A reminder why gridded forecasts matter…

The rest of the article is about how to use grids from direct model output…OUCH!!

The following was written by Chris Parker for the mariner magazine “Ocean Voyager” in 2008:

“Any good forecast offers sufficient temporal and spatial resolution (frequent and closely spaced forecast points), and detail and specificity so you can make good tactical decisions. In my opinion, weather-fax type charts and forecasts prepared for consumption by the general public lack many of these attributes.”


Current setup
Current Setup

Satellite, data, models, etc.

Offshore Forecast Text

Text and graphics only

- no gridded database

High Seas Forecasts Text

Wind Wave Graphics

Surface Prog Graphics

Wave Period Graphics

High Wind Graphic

  • No built-in consistency between forecast elements

  • No built-in consistency between forecast products

  • No built-in method to incorporate the NHC tropical cyclone forecast

  • No easy way to coordinate details with OPC and WFOs

  • Often labor intensive

  • No gridded database


Proposed TAFB Setup

Wavewatch Model

1) Value-added Wind Grids into Wavewatch

Model Data

Satellite, data, models, etc.

2) Value-added Wave Grids back into GFE Database

Offshore Forecast Text

(via GFE text formatter)

GFE Gridded Database

Marine Verifcation (via GFE formatter)

NAVTEX (via GFE formatter)

  • Built-in consistency between forecast elements

  • - Coupled winds and seas = higher quality forecast

  • Built-in consistency between forecast products

  • Built-in method to incorporate the NHC tropical cyclone forecast

  • Inter-Site Coordination: easy to coordinate with OPC and WFOs

  • More efficient – trims a couple of hours off workload per shift

Wind Wave, Surface Prog and Wave Period Graphics (via N-AWIPS)

Polygon-based High Seas Forecast

(via N-AWIPS or IC4D)

High Wind Graphic

…and it includes a gridded database


2009 accomplishments special thanks to ariel cohen
2009 Accomplishments (special thanks to Ariel Cohen)

  • NetCDF to GEMPAK - allows us to populate in NMAP with our own grids developed in GFE (tool developed by Chris Lauer)

  • MSLP Grids

  • Cohen Wind Tool (derives wind from MSLP), Gap Wind Tool

  • Hazard Grid Product

  • GFS 35, GFS 55, ECMWF, UKMET, WNA, ENP

  • Inter-Site Coordination Tool

  • TCM Tool

  • English Text Formatter (started on Spanish and French)

  • NAVTEX Formatter

  • Staff Training

  • Polygon-based High Seas Formatter (in progress)


Proposed TAFB Setup

1) Value-added Wind Grids into Wavewatch

Wavewatch Model

Model Data

Satellite, data, models, etc.

DONE

2) Value-added Wave Grids back into GFE Database

???

Offshore Forecast Text

(via GFE text formatter)

DONE

GFE Gridded Database

DONE

Marine Verifcation (via GFE formatter)

NAVTEX (via GFE formatter)

DONE

Wind Wave, Surface Prog and Wave Period Graphics (via N-AWIPS)

  • Built-in consistency between forecast elements

  • - Coupled winds and seas = higher quality forecast

  • Built-in consistency between forecast products

  • Built-in method to incorporate the NHC tropical cyclone forecast

  • Inter-Site Coordination: easy to coordinate with OPC and WFOs

  • More efficient – trims a couple of hours off workload per shift

ALMOSTDONE

Polygon-based High Seas Forecast

(via N-AWIPS or IC4D)

High Wind Graphic

…and it includes a gridded database


  • Next major evolutions:

  • Short Term

  • “VOBRA” Formatter (if needed) for USCG Broadcast

  • Approval to change Offshore Zone Configurations (Oct 2010)

  • GFE Synergy with other offices (including ISC)

  • Outreach

  • Longer Term

  • Formal Adoption of Polygon-Based High Seas Product

  • Operational Integration of Wind Grids into Wavewatch

  • Unveil the Gridded Database – as part of NDFD?

  • International Partnerships?

  • AWIPS 2 challenges/opportunities


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