Steven McNulty USDA Forest Service Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

1. The role of ecological science and tools in regulating disasters and supporting climate change adaptation Steven McNulty USDA Forest Service Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

2. Question 1. What scientific evidence exists for quantifying the role that ecosystems play in regulating disasters and other risks associated with climate change? Preserving/Preventing • Destroying/ Creating Modify/?

3. Many examples for the destruction of ecosystems creating or contributing to disasters • Recent History • Mass soil erosion in Allegheny mountains 1900s • - Ohio River fire 1960s • - Acid Rain in the 1980s • - fish kills, nitrate leaching, forest mortality • Deforestation leading to rapid surface flow and sedimentation • and flooding in China • Deforestation leading to shifting weather patterns in Amazon • Current and Future Climate Change • Acidification of ocean and loss of coral • Exaggerated drought • Exaggerated flooding

4. Also negative Impacts from seemingly good management • Importation of kudzu into the USA • - US Army Corps of Engineers • - developing levee system along Mississippi • - Channeling of the Everglades in southern Florida • Reduction in soil fertility following construction of Aswan Dam • Increase in catastrophic wildfires following 60 years of fire suppression by the US Forest Service. • - Reduced ground water tables in semiarid areas of China where groundwater in an attempt of reforestation following Cultural Revolution cutting in the 1960-70s.

5. Examples for preservation of ecosystems preventing negative Impacts Very difficult to assess the non-impact of something that did not happen! Therefore, most assessments focus on “impacts” not on “preventions” despite the fact that ecosystem reestablishment is much more costly than ecosystem maintenance Take home point #1. High cost to restore and high impact from loss is the worst case scenario, but also the norm. Unfortunate.

6. Question 2. What are the major information gaps in our understanding of how ecosystems and land-use planning can contribute to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation? Three Broadly Define Forms of Knowledge Gaps - gaps historic understanding (Minor issue) - gaps in response to future change (Moderate issue) - gaps in understanding synergies (Major issue)

7. “Unknown Unknowns” “As we know, There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know. There are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” Donald Rumsfeld Feb. 12, 2002 Department of Defense news briefing

8. Question 2 Take Home Point The uncertainties that will have the greatest impacts are those for which we are not even considering the impacts Three brief examples of unknown unknowns - Mega-fire top torching - Extreme drought in bottomlands - Bugs and spruce

9. Question 3. How much uncertainty is associated with understanding how ecosystems contribute to these risks? • Generally, the uncertainty is inversely proportional to the level of understanding For example in the context of the 3 forms of knowledge gaps 1) historically, if a steep hillslope is logged, the risk of landslide increases relative to unlogged (little uncertainty) 2) how will that condition change with climate (moderate uncertainty) 3) What other factors could come into play such species change, changes in forest morphology (major uncertainty)

10. Question 4. How much uncertainty is acceptable in the context of planning and practice? Benefit Cost

11. Question 5. How much uncertainty is acceptable in the context of planning and practice? Unacceptable consequences and therefore near zero uncertainty generally associated with priceless historical treasures (e.g., Mona Lisa painting, Crown Jewels, US Constitution) Uncertainty about ecosystem impacts have not been considered because ecosystem impacts have not been considered (see Question 1). Take home point for Questions 3-5. Ecosystem impacts are often not addressed, let alone uncertainty around those impacts.

12. Question 6. What role does diversity play in supporting resilience to disturbances? At the ecosystem level, increased diversity generally stabilizes resilience. For example, mixed species ecosystems compared to simple ecosystems. The loss of a single species can have verydifferent impacts. Ironically, the opposite is also true in that a highly competitive single (often invasive) species can disrupt a complex existing ecological balance (e.g. kudzu and purple loose strife in US).

13. Question 7. Do we know enough about the relationships between diversity and resilience to integrate these principles into practical conservation action and planning? Yes, unless the rules change (see question 1). However, given the acceptance of uncertainty in ecosystem management , even the potential for fundamental shifts in ecosystem response to disturbance should not hinder conservation action and planning because 1) Unknown unknowns can not (by definition) be planned for; and 2) not all unknown unknowns are necessarily bad.

14. Question 8. What have been the major challenges and opportunities of integrating ecosystem based management and land-use planning into climate change adaptation planning? There are three great challenges. The first is a need to start using our knowledge proactively, not reactively despite uncertainty. Second, we need to better communicate that knowledge to land managers. The third major challenge is the increasing risk of unknown Unknowns, where preexisting knowledge no longer helps understand or react to the developing disaster. Fortunately, web-based tools are being developed to address the major challenges for proactive ecosystem planning and improved communication between scientists and land managers. For example, TACCIMO

16. Summary Take Home Points Historically, most ecosystem planning has been reactive not proactive. This is the most cost, least effective approach to ecosystem sustainability Scientific knowledge exists to support most proactive ecosystem planning, but expect “unknown unknowns” The new unknowns have the potential to be much more problematic than the uncertainties associated with known problems New web-based tools are coming online that will greatly assist scientists in conveying important ecosystem management information to the land manager regarding disturbance and climate change impacts and adaptation.

17. For a copy of this presentation or to learn more about TACCIMO, you can contact me at Steve McNulty, USDA Forest Service 919 515-9489 steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu