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EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for t he U.S. and the South. This analysis was conduced for Georgia Tech’s “Future of Electric Power in the South” (FEPS) initiative. By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, Alex Smith, and Xiaojing Sun Georgia Institute of Technology July 11, 2014.

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EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for t he U.S. and the South

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Eia s electricity forecasting for t he u s and the south

EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for

the U.S. and the South

This analysis was conduced for Georgia Tech’s “Future of Electric Power in the South” (FEPS) initiative.

By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, Alex Smith, and Xiaojing Sun

Georgia Institute of Technology

July 11, 2014


Progress since our may 6 th feps workshop

Progress Since our May 6th FEPS Workshop

  • FEPS website created: http://cepl.gatech.edu/drupal/node/75

  • Workshop notes were distributed and posted

  • A 55-page white paper on “The State of Electric Power in the South” was drafted, reviewed, revised, and posted

  • Georgia Tech’s National Energy Modeling System (GT-NEMS 2014) became fully operational in July

  • Examined options for modeling “disruptions”


Energy consumption in the south will grow more rapidly than the us average

Energy Consumption in the South Will Grow more Rapidly than the US Average

Total Energy Consumption in the South, 2005-2040 (quadrillion Btu)

History

Projections

2012

Projection for the South

The average annual growth rate of total energy consumption from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.4% for the US, and 0.54% for the South


The south continues to lag the nation in its reliance on renewable electricity

The South Continues to Lag the Nation in its Reliance on Renewable Electricity

Electricity generation by fuel in the South, 2005-2040 (trillion kilowatthours)

Projections

History

2012

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

Petroleum liquids and other


Residential electricity demand will grow more rapidly than the us average

Residential Electricity Demand Will Grow more Rapidly than the US Average

Residential Electricity Consumption in the South, 2005-2040 (billion kWh)

Projections

History

2012

Projection for the South

The average annual growth rate of residential electricity consumption from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.67% for the US, 0.99% for the South


Bau tech progress expected to have little impact on southern electricity load drivers

BAU Tech Progress Expected to Have Little Impact on Southern Electricity Load Drivers

  • Of US demand for space cooling services, the South is projected to consume 63%.

  • Space cooling loads are expected to increase over time, requiring more peak generation.


Technology advancement has potential to accelerate commercial sector efficiency

Technology Advancement has Potential to Accelerate Commercial Sector Efficiency

  • South continues to lag US in adoption of more stringent commercial building codes

  • Forthcoming cost advantages in categories such as lighting may help reduce commercial sector demand (e.g., SSL)


Despite rising energy consumption electricity prices in the south remain low

Despite Rising Energy Consumption, Electricity Prices in the South Remain Low

Average Electricity Prices in the South, 2005-2040 (2012 cents per kilowatthour)

History

Projections

2012

Projection for the South

The average annual growth rate of retail electricity prices from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.51% for the US, 0.47% for the South


Boilers and chp meet proportionally more thermal demand in the south

Boilers and CHP Meet Proportionally More Thermal Demand in the South


Industrial chp is more important in the south but not commercial chp

IndustrialCHP is More Important in the South, but Not Commercial CHP


Chp system prices decline over time

CHPSystem Prices Decline Over Time

Prices are flat after 2035


The south relies more on biomass and less on other renewable resources than the u s

The South Relies More on Biomass and Less on Other Renewable Resources Than the U.S.

Total generation from wind, solar and other renewables in the South (Billion kWh)

Solar

Wind

Biomass

MSW/LFG


Biomass and wind will replace hydro as the largest renewable electricity sources

Biomass and Wind Will Replace Hydro as the Largest Renewable Electricity Sources

Renewable electricity generation in 2012, 2020, 2030 and 2040

Biomass and waste

Solar

Wind

Hydro

power

Solar Will Increase Significantly Post 2030


Distributed solar pv in the commercial sector will experience declining cost and better efficiency

Distributed Solar PV in the Commercial Sector Will Experience Declining Cost and Better Efficiency

SunShot Initiative Goal:

1.25$/W in 2020


Eia s electricity forecasting for t he u s and the south

Distributed Solar PV in Residential Sector Will Face Slightly Higher Costs Than in the Commercial Sector

SunShot Initiative Goal:

1.5 $/W in 2020


Power sector solar pv cost will decline following a three stage learning curve

Power Sector Solar PV Cost Will Decline, Following a Three-Stage Learning Curve

SunShot Initiative Goal: 1 $/W in 2020

In 2013, Utility scale PV cost was ~2 $/W

Source: DOE SunShot Initiative

http://www.energy.gov/articles/us-utility-scale-solar-60-percent-towards-cost-competition-goal


The serc region will significantly increase electricity generation from utility scale solar pv

Distributed Solar PV Generation

The SERC RegionWill Significantly Increase Electricity Generation from Utility Scale Solar PV

Utility Scale Solar PV Generation

The South would account for 12% of the utility PV generation in 2020, 34% in 2040.

The South would account for 20% of the nation’s distributed PV generation in 2020, 29% in 2040.


Next steps for feps

Next Steps for FEPS

  • Examine EIA’s “side cases”:

    • Extended policies

    • High demand technologies

    • Low electricity demand

    • High nuclear

    • $25/t-CO2 tax

  • Begin designing our own scenarios

  • Second webinar in August


For more information

For More Information

Professor Marilyn A. Brown

School of Public Policy

Georgia Institute of Technology

Atlanta, GA 30332-0345

[email protected]

Climate and Energy Policy Lab:

http://www.cepl.gatech.edu

ResearchAssistants:

Alexander Smith (Overview)

[email protected]

Matt Cox (CHP)

[email protected]

Xiaojing Sun (Solar PV)

[email protected]


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