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Evaluating HWRF Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure in the North Atlantic Basin

Evaluating HWRF Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure in the North Atlantic Basin. Dany Tran 11/2/2011. Focus. Expand our understanding of the effects high resolution models and forecasts can have on tropical cyclone operations Improve depiction of structure and intensity

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Evaluating HWRF Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure in the North Atlantic Basin

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  1. Evaluating HWRF Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure in the North AtlanticBasin Dany Tran 11/2/2011

  2. Focus • Expand our understanding of the effects high resolution models and forecasts can have on tropical cyclone operations • Improve depiction of structure and intensity • Improve quality of 48-72hr forecasts relative to the featured locations

  3. Objectives • Evaluate wind field and rain band structures of cyclones before/after rapid intensification • Evaluate accuracy of HWRF predicted feature locations and magnitude of landfalling Tropical cyclones • Pin-point onset of threshold winds for impact areas especially for landfalling TC

  4. Hurricane WRF (HWRF)….What is it • The Weather Research and Forecast Modeling System for Hurricanes (HWRF) became operational in the year 2007. • Constantly improved to increase the forecast skill for track, intensity and structure. • Utilizes the WRF infrastructure. • http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

  5. Approach • Hurricane Earl (2010) will be investigated. • http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/archive_model_data.asp?product=hwrfprec&storm_identifier=al072010 • At least two cases from 2011 hurricane season.

  6. Science • How well cyclone circulation is represented in the 27, 9 and 3km domains • How does the magnitude of low level inflow affect intensity changes in HWRF • Effect of storm-size correction approach used in HWRF vortex initialization • Can alternate model configurations improve forecasts of intensity • Ocean coupling effect

  7. Examples of post-landfall effects • Hurricane Katrina (2005) – Significant damage as a post-landfall cyclone (slow-changing) • Hurricane Fay (2008) – triggered extreme flooding (rapidly-changing)

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