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Supporting High-Stakes CMS Decision Making. By Bruce Landon, Ph.D. Psychology Department Douglas College http://www.c2t2.ca/landonline. Memory Span Limits. The number of “things” that you can hold in your head at once while working on an problem

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Supporting high stakes cms decision making l.jpg

Supporting High-Stakes CMS Decision Making

By Bruce Landon, Ph.D.

Psychology Department

Douglas College

http://www.c2t2.ca/landonline


Memory span limits l.jpg
Memory Span Limits

  • The number of “things” that you can hold in your head at once while working on an problem

  • This limited “working memory” is a profound handicap for a rational decision maker

  • When you work with ideas in your head you are moving them around sort of like a juggler










About making difficult decisions l.jpg
About Making Difficult Decisions:

  • Multi-Attribute Utility Theory,

  • Idealized Decision Process,

  • Cognitive Illusions,

  • Clues from Decision Making Research,

  • The Comparative Analysis Approach,


Multi attribute utility theory l.jpg
Multi-Attribute Utility Theory:

  • Breaking a decision into independent dimensions

  • Determining the relative weights of each dimension

  • Listing of all of the alternatives

  • Ranking the alternatives along all dimensions (rating can work as well as ranking)

  • Multiplying the ranking by the weighting to determine the value

  • Selecting the alternative with the highest value


Idealized decision process l.jpg
Idealized Decision Process:

  • Select relevant features and assign importance weighting to features

  • Evaluate each application on relevant features and assign a suitability score

  • Score Applications by first multiplying each score by the corresponding feature weight

  • Select the application with the highest weighted average score - The Rational Choice


Cognitive illusions l.jpg
Cognitive Illusions:

  • Availability Heuristic

  • Representativeness Heuristic

  • Hindsight Bias

  • Gambler's Fallacy

  • Effect of more options – delaying


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The Framing Effect

  • Refers to the frame of reference

  • People tend to avoid risks that are described in terms of benefits

  • But people tend to take risks described in terms of loss

  • Reminiscent of Win-stay, Lose-shift strategy



The crowning fallibility is overconfidence l.jpg
The Crowning fallibility is middleOverconfidence

  • The tendency to be more confident than is warranted by the evidence

  • To overestimate the accuracy of one's beliefs and judgments (availability heuristic again)

  • For example, the confidence of by the eye witness in their testimony is unrelated to the accuracy of that testimony

  • This overestimation of confidence enhances personal self-esteem and contributes to the resistance to being persuaded otherwise


Comparative analysis approach l.jpg
Comparative Analysis Approach: middle

  • Use review panel to provide consensus on feature/tool importance weighting

  • Limit Focus to what is required

  • Consider only a very few things at a time when making ratings/rankings of suitability

  • Make the computer keep track of the data and do the arithmetic calculations for the familiar weighted grading model for scores

  • Provide for sensitivity analysis (tweaking and recalculating)


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Small Example Decision model: middle

  • 1 Set weights,

  • 2 Evaluate parts,

  • 3 Select best score,

  • select best student

  • select best application

  • Link to www.c2t2.ca/landonline


Making a decision policy with decision weights l.jpg
Making a Decision Policy with Decision Weights: middle

  • Simple strategies - ones and zeros

  • Complex hierarchical strategies - by user group then by function

  • Stakeholder involvement in setting importance weights

  • Peer Review Committee - with a distributed Delphi process

  • Opportunity to align the decision process with institutional values


Review of main points l.jpg
Review of Main Points: middle

  • Importance of the application selection decision

  • The cognitive illusions of the decision makers

  • Strategy to break down complex decision into:

    • smaller, simpler decisions

  • The Comparative Analysis Approach to Decisions

  • - Structure the decision with importance weights of important application features that accommodate your institutional context

  • - Rate suitability of single features/tools one at a time

  • - Use the Multi-Attribute Utility to select most suitable application for your institutional situation (highest weighted average among the candidates)


Progress in redesigning landonline l.jpg
Progress in redesigning landonline middle

  • Refocus on Higher Education products

  • New Advisory Board and WCET sponsor

  • Revised list of product features & glossary

  • Research Assistants for faster updates

  • Rewriting middleware as open source

  • Revised User Interface to Decisions

  • Companion sites to landonline.edutools.info

  • Rollout of sites in the summer 2002


Thank you for your attention l.jpg
Thank you for Your Attention middle

  • [email protected]


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