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Resource Diplomacy Under Hegemony: The “triangular” nature of Sino-American global competition. Chair Professor David Zweig Director, Center on China’s Transnational Relations Chair Professor, Division of Social Science Hong Kong University of Science and Technology www.cctr.ust.hk

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Resource diplomacy under hegemony the triangular nature of sino american global competition l.jpg

Resource DiplomacyUnder Hegemony:The “triangular” nature of Sino-American global competition

Chair Professor David Zweig

Director, Center on China’s Transnational Relations

Chair Professor, Division of Social Science

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

www.cctr.ust.hk

Presentation to the

National Committee on U.S.- China

New York, 7 April 2010


Energy and china s rise l.jpg

Energy and China’s Rise

  • Economic growth is the lifeline of CCP legitimacy;

  • Increased energy consumption due to autos, air conditioners, new housing construction key to its new alliance with middle classes;

  • CCP must maintain the inflow of resources;

  • Increased dependency on global sources, makes China vulnerable to hegemon seeking to slow its rise.

  • Energy, becomes a chokepoint should the US seek to limit China’s rise.

    Nodes of local building blocks of global competitionconflict


Map of malacca straits l.jpg

Map of Malacca Straits


Table 1 chinese college student views on ways chinese government should improve energy security l.jpg

Table 1. Chinese College Student Views on Ways Chinese government should improve energy security


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Figure 1. China’s biggest rival for energy

57%

30%

5%

5%

5%


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Resource Diplomacy Breeds Insecurity not Security

  • Report in March 2003, by 73 officials--active and ex-diplomats, experts, scholars, China’s 3 oil companies—emphasized that:

    1.China’s energy security faced unfavorable shift.

    2. West, particularly U.S., could contain China’s efforts to exploit overseas oil and gas resources

    3. Violent fluctuations of oil prices and energy supply could affect China’s energy security.


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Chinese resource “insecurity”

  • “When a country the size of China imports more than 50 million tons of oil, fluctuations in the international oil market have considerable impact on the national economic operations of that country. China’s oil imports began to exceed 50 million tons as early as 2000. And since then, China has been exposed to potential risks of oil supply disruptions.”

    Liu Xuecheng, Senior Fellow, China Institute of International Studies, MOFA, Beijing

  • Hu Jintao worries about the “Malacca Dilemma.”

    • “Certain powers have all along encroached on and tried to control the navigation through the Straits.”


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PLAN wants Blue Water Navy

Journal of the National Defense University (2002) proposed a shift from coastal defense to oceanic defense by building powerful navy capable of defending China’s “maritime rights and interests and ensuring the nation’s sea lane security.”

General Xiong Guangkai, when he was deputy chief of staff :

“contest for energy sources and secure supply channels among major powers and powerful nations has become fiercer.”

  • He said that the nation’s energy problem “needs to be seriously taken into account and dealt with strategically.”

  • China now publicly admits that is building an aircraft carrier and US military predicts an aircraft carrier by 20102.


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Does US manifest a strategy of a threatened hegemon?

Chinese expressions of support for Blue Water Navy lead U.S. to call for “hedging” strategy.

U.S. Department of Defense sees Chinese “string of pearls”

1. Pakistani port of Gwadar built with Chinese aid;

2. Upgrading military airstrip in South China Sea;

3. Close ties to Burma;

4. Expanding naval access in Bangladesh.

Now includes Hambantota in Sri Lanka (why not Trincomalee?)


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Two countries focus on different regions of the world. Big overlap in Middle-East and Africa………

China’s Oil Dependency (2005),

Middle East = 47%

Saudi Arabia= 17.5%

Iran = 11.3% (to rise greatly)

----------------------------------------

Africa = 30.2%

  • Angola 13.8%

  • Sudan 5.2%

  • ----------------------------------

  • Russia 10.8%

    ----------------------------------

  • Venezuela 1.5% (and rising)

US Oil dependency

  • Middle East 18%

    ----------------------------------

  • West and North Africa 20%

    ----------------------------------

  • North Sea and Russia < 10%

    -------------------------------------

  • Latin America and North

    America (Mexico and

    Canada) > 50%


Under hegemony china s bilateral ties become trilateral menage a trois l.jpg

Sudan

Target of U.S. human rights concerns

Target of U.S anti-proliferation efforts

Iran

Sino-US

Sino-US

Sino-US

Sino-US

Sino-US

Australia

“Deputy sheriff” of East Asia

Canada

that’s our oil” - Cheney

U.S. #4 oil supplier

Venezuela

Rising China

Under Hegemony, China’s Bilateral ties become TrilateralMenage a` Trois

AndMore!!


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Chinese Student Views on Likelihood of Energy Conflict


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How to deal with US and Japan(Japan in Red, US in Blue)


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China's Share of Australia's Total Exports, 2003-2007 ($A mil.)

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Table 3. China’s share of Australian mineral and energy exports (%)

Source: ABARE 2008, Australian Mineral Statistics.

Note: (c) Excludes Hong Kong; (p) Preliminary


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