ORIGINS OF THE GREAT WAR (1870-1914)

1. ORIGINS OF THE GREAT WAR (1870-1914) “Some Damned Foolish Thing in the Balkans”

2. Why did a world war begin in 1914?

3. Significance of the First World War • “Thirty Years War” – Europeans wage “war of all against all” (1914-45) • End of European global hegemony • Collapse of empires – revolution • Communism & Fascism emerge • Economic consequences of the peace • Industrialized total war – end of progress • Restructuring of society

4. The Major Players: 1914-17 Allied Powers: Central Powers: Nicholas II [Rus] Wilhelm II [Ger] George V [Br] Victor Emmanuel II [It] Enver Pasha[Turkey] Pres. Poincare [Fr] Franz Josef [A-H]

5. Causes • Nationalism (pan-Slavism) • Alliance system • Imperial rivalries • Militarism & “arms race” • An analysis of these causes suggests war was inevitable and out of the hands of human actors.

6. Aggressive Nationalism

7. The problem of nationalism • pan-Slavic nationalism • Serbia desired to unite the Slavic peoples in a “greater Slavia” (Yugoslavia) • A series of crises and small wars rocked the Balkans in 1908, 1912 and 1913 – in each case, Russia backed down from supporting the Serbians. • Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia in 1908 to prevent nationalist uprisings on its borders.

9. The Balkans in 1914: A “powder keg”? “Europe today is a powder keg and the leaders are like men smoking in an arsenal…A single spark will set off an explosion that will consume us all…I cannot tell you when that explosion will occur, but I can tell you where…Some damned foolish thing in the Balkans will set it off.” • Otto von Bismarck, 1890s “The Balkan crisis of 1914 proved fatal because two others had gone before it, leaving feelings of exasperation in Austria, desperation in Serbia, and humiliation in Russia.” • - Palmer, Colton and Kramer

11. Nationalism: The “Eastern Question” • Opportunity!?!? Russia • If not the Ottomans to rule, then who?

12. Alliance system Central Powers (Triple Alliance) • Germany • Austria-Hungary • Italy? (had territorial grievances with A-H) • After 1870, Bismarck aligned with 3 of the 5 • After 1890,Kaiser Wilhelm II’s foreign policy • “Place in the sun” • Berlin-Baghdad Railway

13. Avoiding War (Great Britain)

14. Alliance system Entente Cordiale (not an alliance) • France (mutual defense alliance with Russia) • Russia (industrial assistance and investment from France to counter Germany) • Britain? (distrusted Russian ambitions in Mediterranean, but left with no alternative?)

15. Alliance system Entente Cordiale (not an alliance) • German poor foreign policy • Britain abandoning “splendid isolation” • Russia’s needs

16. Alliance system

17. The alliances, 1914

18. Imperialism • German Threat • Germany failed interventions + “gun boat diplomacy” to gain territorial concessions in the Congo from France.

19. Imperial rivalries • Russia & “sick man of Europe” • Austria-Hungary in survival mode

20. Imperial rivalries • German plan for financing Berlin to Baghdad railway, a counter to the British scheme of the Cape to Cairo line. • German idea for control of the Dardenelles

21. Imperial rivalries • Britain and France were competitors for Africa from the start • Britain and Russia also had conflicting imperialist aims in the Middle East (Dardanelles, Iran), but France mediated between the two, wanting to create strong allies against Germany. • Too many countries with too many goals – One area of land 0.75 – 3 miles wide

22. Militarism • Compulsory military service (millions of trained reservists) • “Gun Boat Diplomacy” • Does this mean countries were prepare for war???

23. Militarism & Arms Race Total Defense Expenditures for the Great Powers [Ger., A-H, It., Fr., Br., Rus.] in millions of £s.

24. Militarism • Anglo-German Naval Arms Race • The army was more vital to its survival, and the build up of battleships too expensive. • The Anglo-German arms race a significant cause of the war? Country Personnel Large Dreadnoughts Tonnage Russia 4 328,000 France 10 731,000 Britain 29 2,205,000 TOTAL 43 3,264,000 Germany 17 1,019,000 Austria-Hungary 4 249,000 TOTAL 21 1,268,00

25. Militarism • Speedy mobilization readiness • Germany wanting largest army in the world • Germany’s Russian worry

26. Militarism • The Schlieffen Plan • Two important consequences: • Schlieffen required Germany to break the 1839 Treaty of London guaranteeing Belgium’s neutrality. France’s northern borders were undefended. • The plan necessitated Germany to involve France in a continental war in any conflict involving Russia, thus making a wider war more likely in a local conflict involving the Balkans.

27. Ideas if War were to start • Alfred Graf von Schliefen and his plan

29. France’s Plan XVII

30. The “long fuse” (Causes) • Historians generally recognize that some long-term developments played a role in the outbreak of war in 1914: • Franco-Prussian War (1870-1914); “the German Question” • Collapse of Ottoman Empire & Balkan independence movements; “the Eastern Question” • Russo-Japanese War and 1905 Revolution • Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia (1908) • Balkan Wars (1912-13)

31. The “long fuse” The German Blame: Moroccan Crises (1905, 1911) Naval arms race and military build up Seeking “a place in the sun” – empire building in Asia and Africa Ambitions in the Middle East was a threat to Suez (i.e. Berlin-Baghdad railway) Provided Krupp artillery guns to Boers and Afrikaners in Boer War; Kaiser’s public support for Britain’s enemies in the war “..it must be granted that [Germany’s] policies had for some years been rather peremptory, arrogant, devious and obstinate.” - Palmer, Colton, Kramer, A History of the Modern World

32. Internal causes • Problems are home – potentially wanting war: • Germany: • Rise in socialists in Reichstag • Unify the people behind the Reich • Austria-Hungary: • Dominate the Balkans and end nationalist disturbances • Russia: • 1905 Revolution • “Russify” minorities • Gain support of Tsar

33. Internal causes • France: • Military scandals, strikes and labour unrest • Industrial growth and population growth were stagnant and faced a bleak future • Britain: • Support for socialist Labour Party growing amidst declining economic growth. • “Troubles” in Ireland – terrorism, violence, revolt, and threat of civil war • Losing prestige

34. Internal causes • Why the gamble of war? • Without exception, every state’s population rallied to the call of war and supported it when it came. • There was little danger of revolution anywhere except for Russia, and that circumstance was made worse after the war had begun. • Franz Ferdinand – The Spark

35. June 28, 1914 • Archduke Ferdinand and wife assassinated by young Bosnians with connections thought to be with Serbia. • Assassins were a part of the Black Hand and Narodna Odbrana as well as a part of Serbian intelligence.

37. The July Crisis • June 28, Sarajevo, Bosnia – Franz Ferdinand and his wife assassinated • Gavrillo Princip - a Serb nationalist • Franz Ferdinand - nationalist autonomy • Never proven

40. Insignia of the Black Hand

41. GavriloPrincip

43. Why the July Crisis resulted in escalation? Austria-Hungary could not let Serbia go unpunished and retain prestige as a “great power” Russia had backed down in previous Balkan crises and felt it could not back down in this one.

44. The Ultimatum • July 23 – Vienna sends an ultimatum to Serbia. • 5. July 25 – Serbia carefully worded a reply that accepted all the demands except Austrian supervision, and then mobilized her army. • Kaiser Wilhelm II “was delighted” upon hearing acceptance of the Serbians and falsely assumed, briefly, that “every cause for war has vanished” • – Historian David Fromkin alleges that the Bethmann-Hollweg and the German high command kept true intentions from the Kaiser

45. Diplomatic failure • 7. July 28 – instigated by German Chancellor Bethman-Hollweg, and Austrian Chancellor Berchtold, Austria-Hungary declares war. • 8. July 25-28 – British foreign minister, Sir Edward Grey, tried to mediate a solution. The German government rejected Britain’s interference. • July 29 – Austrian artillery bombards Belgrade. • July 30 - Bethman-Hollweg resists calls for mobilization and encourages Austria to localized the war through dialogue with Moscow. (This results in the Willy-Nicky Telegrams.) • Russia now under pressure by military leaders, and France (worried Russia is unprepared) to mobilize. France ensured Russia of support somewhere between July 20-23)

46. Mobilization 11. July 31 – Russia began full mobilization after having started “partial mobilization” on July 29; this however, was technically impossible. French military leaders (Joffre) demand France mobilizes. 12. By July 30, German high command (von Moltke) panicked that mobilization must begin and France must be defeated before Russia could complete mobilization. August 1 – Germany declared war on Russia. Britain still refused to declare position to France. August 3 – Germany declared war on France and invaded Belgium. August 4 – Britain declared war on Germany, supposedly in defense of Belgian neutrality – “the slip of paper”

47. Who is to blame?

48. Taking a Closer look

49. Austria • Berchtold met Conrad’s demand for mobilization against Serbia. It was time, “to solve the Serbia situation.” Two papers sent to Germany; memorandum outlining Austria’s diplomatic plans for the Balkans, as well as a personal letter to Wilhelm II from Franz Josef

50. Letters to Germany • The letter blamed Russian and Serbian Pan-Slavism for the assassination. • The term war was never used. • Everyone was waiting for German reaction