Theory of Change

1. Theory of change In an ideal world, social problems could be solved with neat, simple solutions. Reality, however, is often quite a different story. Debbi D. Brock, Wingate University Kudos to Georgetown Social Enterprise Initiative, Ben Simmons-Telep & Araba Sapara-Grant, Theory of Change Carol Weiss, TheoryofChange.org, Aspen Institute, ACT Knowledge, Kellogg Foundation and many others.

2. Background of theory of Change • Popularized in 1990s to capture complex initiatives • Outcomes-based • Causal model (links short-term, intermediate, and LT outcomes).  • Articulate underlying assumptions • Link outcomes-and-activities to explain HOW andWHYthe desired change is expected • Organisations intended path to impactare mapped visually in an outcomes pathway • Takes a lot of time © 2020 SCI

3. TOC: Backwards thinking model THEORY OF CHANGE: Creates a fluid strategy between the intended change(s) and the measured outcomes the organization achieves. The Theory of Change model was inspired by Carol Weiss (1972) when she researched small steps lead to long term goal attainment. For more information on the theory of change, go to www.theoryofchange.org © 2020 SCI

4. Theory of change: 3 key elements Rogers, P. (2014). Theory of Change, Methodological Briefs: Impact Evaluation 2, UNICEF Office of Research, Florence © 2020 SCI

5. THEORY OF CHANGE OVERVIEW

6. Start with the end Social impact • Human Capital • Financial • Informational • Technological • Natural Resources • Vision/Mission • Social Business Model • Processes, Tools, Events, Technology • Product of Programme Activities • Evidence of Achievement • Changes to: • Behavior • Knowledge • Skills • Intended Impact The Theory of Change model was inspired by Carol Weiss (1972) when she researched small steps lead to long term goal attainment. For more information on the theory of change, go to www.theoryofchange.org © 2020 SCI

7. Social impact Long Term Outcome: What you hope to achieve through the programme or intervention. Starting Point: Start by conducting a situational analysis, problem identification, strengths & opportunities. Additional Sources: Needs assessment, documented objectives, previous research and evaluation, and stakeholder feedback. Offer clarity on how the intervention will address the intended outcomes and the unintended impacts. @2016. UNICEF Impact Evaluation webinar series, Patricia Rogers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRptX_DNL2Q © 2020 SCI

8. Social impact Discussion What does your organization want to achieve? Source: Based on Church, Cheyanne, & Rogers, (2007). Designing for Results: Integrating Monitoring and Evaluation in Conflict Transformation Programs. Search for Common Ground, Washington, D.C. 14-15.Retrireved from http://www.sfcg.org/programmes/ilt/ilt_manualpage.html © 2020 SCI

9. How TOC can trigger change Source: Based on Church, Cheyanne, & Rogers, (2007). Designing for Results: Integrating Monitoring and Evaluation in Conflict Transformation Programs. Search for Common Ground, Washington, D.C. 14-15.Retrireved from http://www.sfcg.org/programmes/ilt/ilt_manualpage.html © 2020 SCI

10. Theory of Change Model • Human Capital • Financial • Informational • Technological • Natural Resources • Vision/Mission • Social Business Model • Processes, Tools, Events, Technology • Product of Programmes Activities • Evidence of Achievement • Changes to: • Behavior • Knowledge • Skills • Intended Impact The Theory of Change model was inspired by Carol Weiss (1972) when she researched small steps lead to long term goal attainment. For more information on the theory of change, go to www.theoryofchange.org © 2020 SCI

11. Social value (i.e. outcomes) Outcomes that your organization will achieve to create social value. • What are the ultimate goals of the programme or initiative? • How will you define success in this programme? • What are your funders or programme participantsexpecting to get from their investment in the programme? • Given what you know today, what will be different in your community in the long term (changes in behaviour, knowledge or skills), as a result of successfully reaching your goal? Anderson, A. A. (n.d.). The Community Builder’s Approach to Theory of Change: Practical Guide to theory Development. The Aspen Institute. Retrieved from http://www.theoryofchange.org/pdf/TOC_fac_guide.pdf © 2020 SCI

12. Social Value Operationalize Outcomes Outcomes Achieved • What indicator(s) will we use to measure success on this outcome? • In what population will we look for change in these indicators? • What is the current status of our target population on the indicator(s)? • How much does our target population have to change on these indicators in order for us to feel that we have successfully achieved the outcome? • How long will it take the target population to reach our threshold of change on the indicator(s)? Anderson, A. A. (n.d.). The Community Builder’s Approach to Theory of Change: Practical Guide to theory Development. The Aspen Institute. Retrieved from http://www.theoryofchange.org/pdf/TOC_fac_guide.pdf © 2020 SCI

13. Good toc: Answers 6 W questions To start, a good theory of change should answer six big questions: • 1. Who are you seeking to influence or benefit (target population)? • 2. Whatbenefits are you seeking to achieve (results)? • 3. Whenwill you achieve them (time period)? • 4. Howwill you and others make this happen (activities, strategies, resources, etc.)? • 5. Whereand under what circumstances will you do your work (context)? • 6. Whydo you believe your theory will bear out (assumptions)? Forti, M. (2012). Six Theory of Change Pitfalls to Avoid. Stanford Social Innovation Review. Retrieved from https://ssir.org/articles/entry/six_theory_of_change_pitfalls_to_avoid

14. Theory of Change Model • Financial ____ • Human Capital ____________ • Informational ___________ • Technological ____________ • Natural _____ • Activities • ________________ • ________________ • ________________ • ________________ • Evidence of Results • _______________ • _______________ • _______________ • _______________ • _______________ • _______________ • Outcome: • _______________ • _______________ • _______________ • _______________ Fill out the TOC Handout • Impact: • _______________ • _______________ • _______________ • _______________ The Theory of Change model was inspired by Carol Weiss (1972) when she researched small steps lead to long term goal attainment. For more information on the theory of change, go to www.theoryofchange.org © 2020 SCI

15. Theory of Change Model • Human Capital • Financial • Informational • Technological • Natural Resources • Vision/Mission • Social Business Model • Processes, Tools, Events, Technology • Product of Programme Activities • Evidence of Achievement • Changes to: • Behavior • Knowledge • Skills • Intended Impact The Theory of Change model was inspired by Carol Weiss (1972) when she researched small steps lead to long term goal attainment. For more information on the theory of change, go to www.theoryofchange.org © 2020 SCI

16. Outputs Outputs you document are the expected results of your organizations activities. • Product of Programme Activities • Outputs must be measurable • Evidence of Achievement Examples: number of children educated, # of youth taken off the streets, the # of people employed, children vaccinated, etc. © 2020 SCI

17. Theory of Change Model • Human Capital • Financial • Informational • Technological • Natural Resources • Vision/Mission • Social Business Model • Processes, Tools, Events, Technology • Product of Programme Activities • Evidence of Achievement • Changes to: • Behavior • Knowledge • Skills • Intended Impact Fill out the TOC Handout The Theory of Change model was inspired by Carol Weiss (1972) when she researched small steps lead to long term goal attainment. For more information on the theory of change, go to www.theoryofchange.org © 2020 SCI

18. Activities Assumptions: Document assumptions, causal links or risks that need to be validated List Activities to Accomplish • Vision / Mission – Ensure focus on vision and mission • Social Business Model – Connects inputs to impact • Programme Activities – • Tools – investment capital, financial capital, line of credit, etc. • Events – Knowledge capital • Technology – Computers, machines, applications, etc. © 2020 SCI

19. resources © 2020 SCI

20. Theory of Change Model • Human Capital • Financial • Informational • Technological • Natural Resources • Vision/Mission • Social Business Model • Processes, Tools, Events, Technology • Product of Programme Activities • Evidence of Achievement • Changes to: • Behavior • Knowledge • Skills • Intended Impact Fill out the TOC Handout The Theory of Change model was inspired by Carol Weiss (1972) when she researched small steps lead to long term goal attainment. For more information on the theory of change, go to www.theoryofchange.org © 2020 SCI

21. Components of theory of change • An Outcomes Framework – The set of necessary and sufficient preconditions—known as early and intermediate outcomes—that precede attainment of the long-term outcome. • A Set of Assumptions – That explain the connection between the outcomes in the change pathway; delineates the set of outcomes as the necessary and sufficient preconditions for goal attainment; justifies the choice of interventions planned to bring about the outcomes in the path; and articulates constraints in the environment that may hinder or promote the achievement of the long-term goal. • A Set of Interventions – Designed to bring about outcomes in the pathway. • A Set of Indicators – Designed to reflect the amount of change that must occur over a specified time period and for a specified target population in order for a successful outcome to be declared. • Shows Cause and Effect

22. Justifications • Require justifications at each step • Articulate the hypothesis about why something will cause something else (it’s a causal model, remember!) • Theories of Change require identifying indicators © 2020 Heléne Clark, ActKnowledge and Andrea Anderson, Aspen Institute Presentation on Theories of Change and Logic Models: Telling Them Apart

23. Theory of Change Process Social Impact: End goal that you want to achieve Social Value: Outcomes that your organization will achieve to create social value Outputs • Outputs you document are the expected results of your organizations activities. • Important to be able to measure the output (the number of children educated the # of youth taken off the streets, the # of people employed, children vaccinated, etc.). Activities • Activities are the things that your organization does to achieve the end outputs (e.g. activities can range from hosting a job fair for the unemployed, training youth on HIV/AIDS awareness, hosting a water sanitation workshop or others). Resources • Resources needed to accomplish the project can be natural resources (land, water, trees), technological resources (computers), human resources (people), financial resources (money) or informational resources (knowledge). © 2020 SCI

24. © 2020 Shelterbox. Retrieved from www.shelterboxusa.org/home-page/recovery-starts-with-shelter/theory-of-change/

25. Uses Systems Thinking

26. xx • Clear Testable Hypothesis – About the change that will occur, allows accountability and makes results credible • Visual representation of the change • Blueprint for measurement & evaluationindicators of success • Powerful communication tool to capture the complexity of initiatives • Address the intended impact and unintended impact. • Helps to build deep empathy with beneficiaries (Anderson, 2005) Reporting Mechanism Documents Lessons Learned Stay on Course Provides Transparency Accountability to Constituents Track Milestones

27. 6 Pitfalls of theory of change • 1. Confusing accountability with hope. A theory of change must clarify what results an organisationwill hold itself accountable for achieving; in other words, what results must it deliver to be successful. • 2. Creating a mirror instead of a target. A good TOC doesn’t simply reflect what an organisation is already doing; rather, it articulates what the organisation wants to be held accountable for, and works backward to identify necessary activities, strategies, resources, capabilities, culture, and so on. • 3. Failing to take the external context into account. The best theories of change explicitly integrate the anticipated actions of regulators, the work of peer organizations, expected changes in the economic climate, and other factors. A deep understanding of the external context will help you create a more realistic TOC. • 4. Not confirming the plausibility of your theory. While internal dialogue is a common starting point for theory of change development, the process should not conclude without a concerted effort to verify whether your “theory” is plausible. Though these efforts took time, they helped FIRST perfect their programme model and programme delivery practices in advance of implementing changes. • 5. Creating a theory that isn’t measurable. To be able to test, refine, and improve your TOC over time, you need to be able to measure its key elements. Articulate the input, output, and outcome indicators the TOC suggests you should track. • 6. Assuming you’ve figured it all out. To get the most out of your TOC, you need to recognize and explicitly account for the uncertainties that underlie your plan. Learning organizations carefully specify their assumptions, regularly reflect on whether those assumptions are bearing out, and consider what new assumptions they might test to further improve impact. Forti, M. (2012). Six Theory of Change Pitfalls to Avoid. Stanford Social Innovation Review. Retrieved from https://ssir.org/articles/entry/six_theory_of_change_pitfalls_to_avoid

28. Theory of change examples "It is only when your organisations has a "true north" compass point about the change you make that you will be able to credibly evaluate your organisations impact on the community you serve. - Mark Fulop

29. What defines the true social entrepreneurship is that he or she simply cannot come to rest in life until his or her vision become the new pattern in society. -Bill Drayton (CEO) VISION: For many generations, society was organized around a few people at the top telling everyone else to repeat their specialized skills faster and faster. Today, all of us have the means to lead and get big things done. This is causing social change to explode in every direction. Because we live in a changemaker world, everyone must be an effective and confident changemaker. • SOCIAL ENTREPREENUR: • Ashoka selects world-class social entrepreneurs who are leading the way to an everyone-a-changemaker world. Ashoka’s programs in more than 90 countries build networks that help people see and understand the new framework, and take action as changemakers. What is Ashoka? Who is Ashoka?

32. Measurement & theory of change

33. Measurement & theory of change Components of ToC: Outcome framework A set of assumptions A set of interventions A set of indicators (Source: “Logic Model Development Guide”.W.K. Kellogg Foundation)

34. Measuring toc: outcome & impact

35. Conclusion

36. A broken system FUNDING ORGANIZATIONS Small staff Limited Resources NGOS Focus on funder needs, not beneficiaries BENEFICIARIES Attempt to serve needs Influenced by “Questioning the business of Philanthropy”.Sphaera Inc.

37. New system: transformative change FUNDINGORGANIZATIONS Partnership with SV Understanding of needs SOCIAL VENTURES Focus on beneficiaries needs Collaborative groups, partnerships and networks BENEFICIARIES Needs are served Change the system Influenced by “Questioning the business of Philanthropy”.Sphaera Inc.

38. A good TOC should have: • Change-oriented: Makes explicit the intended/expected changes from effort. • Clear and complete: Links activities to the intended change by revealing the assumptions and change logic in simple, understandable terms. • Plausible: Demonstrates logic and/or reflects research results—and shows how the effort will lead to the desired results without leaps or gaps. • Testable: It is specific enough to be tested for validity over time. • Embedded in context: Takes into account the broader context in which the intervention occurs and reflects the reality of change processes in that setting. • Agreed: As far as possible, reflects agreement among relevant stakeholders. • Dynamic: Amended/updated whenever circumstances alter substantially and there is a need for the intervention to change course—or on the basis of a mid-course review or evaluation Roland Dittli and Stefan Bächtold at swisspeace for articulating some of these criteria. See also Vogel, I. (2012) Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development, Report to DFID, http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/pdf/outputs/mis_spc/dfid_toc_review_vogelv7.pdf

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40. exercise

41. Theory of change Your planned work Your intended results Resources / Inputs What resources are needed to operate your program? (Content should draw from Impact BMC Resources, Partners, Costs and Revenues.) Activities If you have access to needed resources, then you can use them to accomplish your planned activities. (Content should draw from Impact BMC Activities.) Outputs If you accomplish your planned activities, then you will hopefully deliver the product and/or service that you intended. Outcomes If you accomplish your planned activities to the extent you intended, then your users will benefit in certain ways. Impact If these benefits to users are achieved, then certain changes in organizations, communities, or systems might be expected to occur. (Content should draw from Impact BMC Intended Impact.) Assumptions and Risks