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Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty

Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty. USGS IPY 2007-2008 Kickoff Event March 30, 2007 Brenda Pierce, USGS Energy Resources Program. from L.P. White, R.S. Bishop and D.L. Gautier, 2005. GOALS FOR THE CIRCUM-ARCTIC RESOURCE APPRAISAL.

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Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty

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  1. Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty USGS IPY 2007-2008 Kickoff Event March 30, 2007 Brenda Pierce, USGS Energy Resources Program

  2. from L.P. White, R.S. Bishop and D.L. Gautier, 2005

  3. GOALS FOR THE CIRCUM-ARCTIC RESOURCE APPRAISAL • Comprehensive (portfolio effect) • Full range of uncertainty • Objective and unbiased • Transparent and reproducible • Compatible with our previous work • Results in a cost/supply context What is the potential for additions to petroleum reserves from the Arctic?

  4. ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES ARE LIMITED IN UNEXPLORED BASINS • Discovery History Analysis • Prospect counting • Reservoir modeling • Geologic synthesis • Analog modeling

  5. Science in Support of the CARA • New Map of Arctic Sedimentary Prisms • Classification of Arctic Petroleum Systems • Basin Evolution Chart • Analog Database • Analog Assessment Methodology • Full-cycle Resource Analysis Model

  6. Cooperating Organizations • Minerals Management Service • Geological Survey of Canada • Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland • Norwegian Petroleum Directorate • Individual Russian Scientists • Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe • Members of the World Energy Consortium

  7. INTEGRATED EVALUATION ALGORITHM DEFINE ASSESSMENT UNITS DEVELOP BACKGROUND INFORMATION GEOLOGIC ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT VOLUME & FLOW ASSESSMENT FULL CYCLE SIMULATION DEVELOP ANALOG APPROACH DEVELOP ANALOG MODELS FOR VOLUME & FLOW

  8. NE GREENLAND SIGNIFICANT: • Geologic uncertainty • Technical uncertainty • Economic uncertainty Category 3 sparse seismic, no wells

  9. North Danmarkshavn Salt Basin

  10. Thank you

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