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CHANGES IN BARRIER ISLAND ENVIRONMENTS DURING SEA-LEVEL RISE

James C. Gibeaut Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin Funding From: Galveston Bay Estuary Program, NOAA through the Texas Coastal Coordination Council, Texas General Land Office, Army Research Office, NASA

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CHANGES IN BARRIER ISLAND ENVIRONMENTS DURING SEA-LEVEL RISE

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  1. James C. Gibeaut Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin Funding From: Galveston Bay Estuary Program, NOAA through the Texas Coastal Coordination Council, Texas General Land Office, Army Research Office, NASA Texas A&M Sigma Xi Symposium, March 30, 2006 CHANGES IN BARRIER ISLAND ENVIRONMENTS DURING SEA-LEVEL RISE

  2. Texas Coast

  3. ( a ) B A Y B A R R I E R I S L G U L F O F M E X I C O B a y m a r g i n R i d g e a n d s w a l e F o r e - i s l a n d B e a c h o r d u n e s v e g e t a t e d b a r r i e r f l a t s B e r m B a c k - b e a c h S w a s h M a r s h a n d t i d a l f l a t C o p p i c e V e g e t a t e d Z o n e O f f s h o r e d u n e s d u n e s A q u a t i c b e d s b a r s F o r e b e a c h ( b ) B A Y P E N I N S U L A G U L F O F M E X I C O V e g e t a t e d b a r r i e r f l a t s I n c i p i e n t d u n e M a r s h a n d t i d a l f l a t B a c k - A q u a t i c b e d s F o r e b e a c h b e a c h Q A d 3 1 7 ( a ) c Regressive Barrier Island Transgressive Barrier Island

  4. Transgressive (Matagorda Peninsula)

  5. Regressive (Galveston Island)

  6. Color IR Mosaic Gulf of Mexico

  7. Barrier Island Environments

  8. University of Texas Airborne Topographic Lidar System(Optech model ALTM1225)

  9. 1 – Meter Lidar Digital Elevation Model

  10. Habitat Classification Map From Color IR Photography Data from White et al., 2002

  11. Average Heights and Standard Deviations of Barrier Island Habitats

  12. Change Induced by Rising Sea Level From Brinson, Christian, and Blum, 1995

  13. Pier 21 - Galveston 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 Average water level (cm) y = 0.652x - 1145.6 Global ocean-level rise 80.0 2 R = 0.9436 60.0 4.36 + 2.16 = 6.52 mm/yr 40.0 20.0 Local land subsidence 0.0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Relative Sea-Level Change

  14. Land Subsidence Relative to Pier 21, 1958 – 1978, mm/yr Pier 21 tide gauge

  15. Maximum rate = 0.0064 m/yr Vertical Accretion Function Evidence for decreasing rate and max rate from Callaway et al., 1997

  16. Shoreline Change

  17. Change Rate = 0.0064 m/yr 2.5 Tide Gauge Record Annual Averages of MHHW at Pier 21, Galveston 2 ) m ( l e v e l e d i t h g i H 1.5 H i s t o r i c a l l e v e l L i n e a r f i t P r o j e c t e d l e v e l 3 - y r m o v i n g a v e r a g e 1 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Y e a r

  18. Model Flow Future date reached? DEM (original) Classify elevation by environment types Environment grid Yes No Adjusted DEM Apply vertical accretion adjustment Output habitat grid 1-year loop Shoreline change data Retreat shoreline Apply sea level adjustment Compute statistics of habitat status Apply local subsidence adjustment Maps Statistics Graphs

  19. Eight Analysis Areas

  20. All Areas

  21. All Areas

  22. Eight Analysis Areas

  23. Follets

  24. Follets

  25. Eight Analysis Areas

  26. West Galveston

  27. West Galveston

  28. Eight Analysis Areas

  29. Bolivar

  30. Bolivar

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