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Predicting Sea Level Rise Impacts on Hawaii’s Anchialine Pool Ecosystems Lisa Marrack UC Berkeley Ala Kahakai National Historical Park. Sea Level Rise. Sea level is expected to rise between 0.5 to 1.6m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Vermeer&Rahmstorf 2009). Observed. Predicted Impacts.

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slide1

Predicting Sea Level Rise Impacts on Hawaii’s Anchialine Pool Ecosystems Lisa MarrackUC BerkeleyAla Kahakai National Historical Park

slide2

Sea Level Rise

Sea level is expected to rise between 0.5 to 1.6m by 2100

(IPCC 2007; Vermeer&Rahmstorf 2009)

Observed

slide3

Predicted Impacts

Water Withdrawal and Non-Point Source Pollution

  • Coastal inundation
  • Storm run up
  • Habitat shifts

http:/www.yfrog.com/gzt4wyrj

Ali’i Drive, Kona, HI

March 11, 2011

slide4

Anchialine Pools

Figureby: Jonathan D. Craft, Auburn University

Scott Santos

slide5

The Spirit of Kaloko-Honokohau

Cultural and Natural Resources

Megalagrion xanthomelas

Metabetaeus lohena & Halocaridina rubra

questions

Questions

Questions
  • What coastal features will be inundated by 2100 along the west coast of Hawaii due to a 1 meter sea level rise?
  • Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge within the arid coastline of west Hawaii?
slide7

DATA

Elevation Data

  • FEMA – Lidar 2006
  • Average point distance is 3 ft
  • 1074 tiles on Big Island
  • 500,000 bare earth pts /tile
  • ± 0.51 ft vertical accuracy (95% CI)
slide8

Kaloko Honokohau National Historical Park

Geospatial anchialine pool data -abiotic and biotic (Marrack & Beavers 2009)

slide14

Inundation of pools by 2100

Inundation of pools by 2100

81% of 194 current pools will be inundated by

1 m SLR at High Tide

(5.57 ft)

slide16

What next?

  • Include archaeological features, wetlands, fishponds
  • Expand analysis within Ala Kahakai NHP corridor
  • Make products available to researchers, managers, and planners
slide17
What are the distribution and dispersal patterns of invasive M. lar in anchialine pools in the State of Hawaii?

- population genetics of M. lar populations

- stream and anchialine pools Hawaii, Guam, French Polynesia

2) What are the relative and combined impacts of M lar, invasive fishes (poeciliids, Tilapia) and elevated nutrients on anchialine pool habitats?

- expand spatial coverage of surveys

- experimental manipulations

- nutrient flow through food web (isotopes)

Distribution, dispersal, and impacts of the introduced Macrobrachium lar within anchialine pool ecosystems

mahalos
Mahalos

Rick Gmirkin & Arik Arakaki - Ala Kahakai National Historical Park, Sallie Beavers-NPS, Delwyn Oki-USGS, Eric Grossman-USGS, Rebecca Most-UH Hilo, Scott Santos – Auburn University

slide19

Macrobrachium lar study

  • Samples
  • Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n
  • Samoa – NPS 20 n
  • Anchialine Pool
    • July 2010 & July 2011

25n, 6 sites

147n, 8 sites

47n, 4 sites

15n, 2 sites

52n, 6 sites

slide20

Macrobrachium lar study

  • Samples
  • Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n
  • Samoa – NPS 20 n
  • Anchialine Pool
    • July 2010 & July 2011
    • 65n, Ohiki
    • Makalawena
    • Mauna Lani
    • Halape
    • Kapoho
    • Puako (1)

Successful PCR with 1 COI primer set.

Several sequences produced

MORE NEEDED!

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DATA

Lidar Vertical Datum

Local Tidal Datum

Kawaihae/Hilo

5.57 ft (1.698m) Sea Level Rise + High Tide

3.28 ft 1 m Sea Level Rise

2.29 ft (0.698 m) Highest Observed Tide

0 Mean Sea Level