Commercial services A few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.no ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006 Head of Meteorology and Research Erik Hagemark Project meteorologist media Niklas B.Sondell
Presentation overview • Commercial services – who are we? • Innovative use of ECWMF-products: • Maritime operations planning tool ”MOP”, based on 10-day forecasts from EC-op and EC EPS • 3 week forecasts, based mainly on the Monthly Forecasting System.
Commercial services – who are we? • Leading service provider in Norway. • Strong position within the maritime, media, transportation and energy markets. • Specialists in product development/value add • Meteorologists, programmers and salesstaff. • ’Separated’ from the official duties of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. • Profitable, no subsidies.
Commercial services – who are we? • We pay the max price to ECMWF (EUR 140.000) • Currently 34 employees, and growing
Commercial services A Marine Operations Planning tool ”MOP” ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006
Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP” • An interactive web-based tool for combining operations criteria and weather data. • The program can be run in 2 modes • Hindcast mode using statistics • Forecast mode using ECMWF-data (op and EPS) Suitable for riggmoves, maintenance, supply logistics and survey and so on…
Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP” MARSIM GUI User defines operation Results: wait time/completion time Hindcast data EPS data Program Courtesy Dr.A.K Magnusson, marked.met.no
”MOP” - description • Highly advanced tool with an interactive interface in which the user can enter and alter: • weather dependent criteria • type and duration of operations • vessels involved • Output is given as • Average waiting time • Total completion time • Plot of cummulative probability
Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP” Main window (edit mode)
”MOP” – output examples • Average waiting time (hindcast mode)
”MOP” – output examples • Average waiting time (forecast mode)
Commercial services A 3-week forecast using the ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006
3-week forecasts • First issued late Nov 2005, operational from March 2006 • Derived from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System • The last week (week 4) is not included due to low skill • Updated weekly • Several languages available
3-week forecasts - description • Main focus on weather regimes, and when regimes are changing. • Hovmoeller Diagram and Weather Regime Clusterisation. • In many cases we adapt the anomalies to better fit the weather regime. • The anomalies derived directly from the model are not always accurate because of the coarse resolution in the model. • The forecast is also used by the forecaster as an input in our 10 day forecast issued daily.
3-week forecasts - verification • March 2006 to date, showing precipitation and temperature. • Proven skill in forecasting colder/warmer and drier/wetter than normal. • Low skill in forecasting the exact anomaly.
3-week forecasts and energy trading • Powerful tool when applied in connection with energy trading • Proven skill when compared to forward contracts at Nordpool • Max return on the 8th trading day Used: forwards for the middle-kWh-price, third quarter 2006
Thank you!! Visit us at: www.marked.met.no Correspondance: email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org