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David McNew/Getty Images

David McNew/Getty Images The downtown skyline is enveloped in smog shortly before sunset in Los Angeles, California. “Tier 3”: program to address air pollution from passenger cars and trucks. Changes: more stringent vehicle emissions standards reduce the sulfur content of gasoline by 2/3

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David McNew/Getty Images

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  1. David McNew/Getty Images The downtown skyline is enveloped in smog shortly before sunset in Los Angeles, California.

  2. “Tier 3”: program to address air pollution from passenger cars and trucks • Changes: • more stringent vehicle emissions standards • reduce the sulfur content of gasoline by 2/3 • help state and local agencies in their efforts to attain and maintain health-based National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). • Following tables/info: EPA Final Rulemaking, 3/3/14.

  3. Economics & politics EPA had similar proposal ready in December 2011. White House decided to wait until after the 2012 elections to submit it for review. (NYTimes, 3/3/14) Industry funded BCA

  4. Tier 3 is projected to lead to reductions in a host of air pollutants:

  5. Beneficial impacts on health • sulfur blocks pollution-control equipment in vehicle engines  increases tailpipe emissions linked to lung disease, asthma, emphysema, chronic bronchitis, aggravated heart disease and premature births and deaths (NYT, 3/3/14) • by 2030, annually prevent • 660-1,500 PM-related premature deaths, • 110-500 ozone-related premature deaths, • 81,000 work days lost, • approximately 1.1 million minor restricted-activity days. Maryland Dept. of the Env.

  6. One example of the new standards for light duty (LD) vehicles (v) and trucks (t) NMOG: Non-Methane Organic Gases, precursors to ozone Note: ratcheting.

  7. Evaporative Emission Standards • Gasoline in fuel lines and tank can slowly evaporate over time. • New standard: covered vehicles will be required to have essentially zero fuel vapor emissions in use (evaporativeemissions standards, test procedures, and fuel/evaporative system leak standard) • These new standards are harmonized with California’s zero evaporative emissions standards (Note: California as policy lab)

  8. Costs: vehicle tech & fuel

  9. Increasing standards, increasing MC • Sulfur in American gasoline: • Decade ago: 300 ppm (parts per million) • Subsequent rule changes required refiners to cut the sulfur content by 90 percent  currently 30 ppm. • New rule (2014)  reduce by 2/3. • Charles Drevna, president of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (lobbyist) • removing the first 90 percent of sulfur molecules from gasoline relatively easy. • last 10 percent is harder: “They’re tough little buggers that don’t want to come out. It’s like getting the last little bit of red wine stain out of a white blouse.” Upi.com NY Times, 3/3/ 2014

  10. VSL: valuing reductions in premature mortality • VSL = $6.3M, $8.3M, $10.2M ….what’s going on? • Should we be concerned that EPA didn’t allow VSL to continue to grow 2024-2030?

  11. Benefits: health • Sensitivity to discounting assumptions. (What’s being discounted?) • Should we be concerned that EPA didn’t quantify all of the benefits?

  12. Annual net benefits by 2030

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