Modeling at AFSC. Kerim Aydin, Sarah Gaichas, John Heifetz, Sarah Hinckley, James Ianelli, Pat Livingston, Bern Megrey, Jesus Jurado-Molina, Michael Dalton, Ivonne Ortiz, and Buck Stockhausen Subset shown in talk: see abstracts for full list.
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Feely et al. 2004. Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 in the oceans. Science 305: 362-366.Two major scales of modeling
“A conceptual model representing the minimum trophic structure and biological relationships between and among all the marine ecosystem components thought to be essential to describe ecosystem dynamics in the North Pacific” (An MRM for NPZ modeling?)
Shown is NEMURO.FISH extension Source: Megrey et al. 2007
NEMURO Model has been Applied
Prince William Sound
Sea of Okhotsk
West Coast Vancouver Island
East China Sea
Gulf of California
Western Alaskan Sockeye
British Columbia Sockeye
Pink salmon bioenergetics model, predicts daily pink salmon growth and numerical mortality based on input ration.
Pink salmon body weight and numbers used to set Ecosim biomass for predator and prey equations in next timestep.
Consumption and mortality rates for Pink salmon based on predator and prey biomass.
Ecosim (ecosystem biomass dynamics model), run on a daily timestep.
Daily biomass density of phytoplankton, microzooplankton, large zooplankton (copepods).
NEMURO (nutrient-phytoploankton-zooplankton-detritus): 1-dimensional water column model integrated on an hourly timestep.
(Aydin et al. 2005)
DisMELS: Dispersal Modeling for Early Life Stages (Stockhausen)Larvae have behavior!
preferred night time
+ Growth, Mortality
ROMS 3D Hydrodynamic Model Output (Stockhausen)
Early Life History
StagesDisMELS and ROMS(one of multiple efforts interfacing with ROMS)
PET Model CO2 Emissions
Capital & Labor
Consumption & Savings
K & L
C & I
Final Goods Producers
Exports & Imports
Intermediate goods producers
Everything Else (ETE)
E & M
Eastern Bering Sea
Gulf of Alaska
Both F and M
(Assessment Fig 9)
(Ianelli and Jurado-Molina)
MCMC integrated profile of M
Spawning stock biomass
Predation “off”: black dashes
Predation “on” Types I-VII functional responses: blue lines
(Extended fitting methods applied to multiple functional responses, extended equations, challenging the “primary production anomaly” methodology.) Gaichas and Aydin
Eastern Bering Sea
Gulf of Alaska
GOA Long term: MSE (Stockhausen)
Best fit functional responses (1970-present) dichotomous based on assumed forcing source (e.g. bottom-up vs. arrowtooth larval advection). Method: Test all hypotheses.
This continued low level of forage was (qualitative) reason for caution for pollock discussed by BSAI Plan TeamEBS additional concerns: Zooplankgon and forage fish biomass
(Assessment Fig. 3)
From North Pacific Fisheries Management Council’s Scientific and Statistical Committee minutes, December 2006:
Result from single-species assessment
Assessment + ecosystem indicators
A multispecies model
Change from multispecies models and indicators
Oil spill on rookery
low Impact of interaction high
Cod eat Atka
low Probability of interaction high
KEY IS FOLDING IN TO STOCK ASSESSMENT PROCESS. THIS SYSTEM WORKS WHEN IT IMPACTS A TARGET SPECIES, BUT THERE IS LIMITED MANAGEMENT MANDATE FOR INTERACTIONS.
Perhaps Fisheries Ecosystem Plans will create context, avoid crisis mode?