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Best Practices and Decision Support Services During a December 2010 Snow Squall

Ken Widelski – Senior Forecaster NWS Albuquerque, NM SAWS IV. Best Practices and Decision Support Services During a December 2010 Snow Squall. Local NWS Albuquerque Office. SAWS IV. ZAB CWSU Forecast Area. Event Background.

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Best Practices and Decision Support Services During a December 2010 Snow Squall

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  1. Ken Widelski – Senior Forecaster NWS Albuquerque, NM SAWS IV Best Practices and Decision Support Services During a December 2010 SnowSquall

  2. Local NWS Albuquerque Office SAWS IV

  3. ZAB CWSU Forecast Area

  4. Event Background • A high impact short duration snow squall impacted the ABQ Sunport on 12/30/2010. • Heavy Holiday Travel Period • 12z NAM-WRF and GFS initialized the feature well but showed a weakening trend as it approached ABQ with dissipation shortly after. • No hazards in effect. SAWS IV

  5. 300 mb Upper Level Analysis

  6. 500 mb Analysis

  7. TAF KABQ 300539Z 3006/3106 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN035 TEMPO 3006/3008 5SM -RASN SCT015 BKN025 FM301200 13015KT 1SM -SN SCT005 BKN015 FM301900 23018G28KT 3SM -SN BR SCT025 BKN035 FM302200 25015G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN060 FM310100 24011KT P6SM SCT005 BKN050 TAF Forecasts for ABQ • 06z TAF • KABQ 300539Z 3006/3106 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN035 • TEMPO 3006/3008 5SM -RASN SCT015 BKN025 • FM301200 13015KT 1SM -SN SCT005 BKN015 • FM301900 23018G28KT 3SM -SN BR SCT025 BKN035 • FM302200 25015G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN060 • FM310100 24011KT P6SM SCT005 BKN050T035 BKN060 FM310100 24011KT P6SM SCT005 BKN050

  8. TAF KABQ 300539Z 3006/3106 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN035 TEMPO 3006/3008 5SM -RASN SCT015 BKN025 FM301200 13015KT 1SM -SN SCT005 BKN015 FM301900 23018G28KT 3SM -SN BR SCT025 BKN035 FM302200 25015G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN060 FM310100 24011KT P6SM SCT005 BKN050 Shift Change at 8 am: • 12z TAF (At shift relief) • KABQ 301137Z 3012/3112 18011KT P6SM SCT040 BKN070 • FM301600 20015G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN050 • TEMPO 3018/3022 23025G35KT 2SM -SN BR BKN025 • FM302200 25015G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN060 • FM310100 24011KT P6SM SCT005 BKN050

  9. 8:40 am SWA Brief • Received call from Brian at SWA on 4 hour Tempo group. • 2 mile VSBY over a 4 hour period would close down a particular runway at the terminal… Did we need a 4 hour tempo group? (** know your customer/know your airport**)

  10. 8:47 am AWW Issued (narrow time) • ...STRONG FRONT TO BRING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE SUNPORT...  A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRINGACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 11 AND 1 PM WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON THE RUNWAY COMPLEX. WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO EXCEED 35 MPH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

  11. Decision Support Briefs • 848 AM- BRIEF to ABQ Tower • 855 AM- BRIEF to AFSS on AWW • 856 AM- BRIEF to CWSU on AWW Ongoing CWSU partnership/training/outreach initiative. Relationships built.

  12. Intense snow band approaching the ABQ Sunport. Radar image at 1600 UTC/9 am MST 900 AM- REPORT @ Cubero, NM 2” Snow in 30 min, 40 mph winds, vsby 50-100 ft ABQ

  13. Critical TAF Collaboration • 903 AM- Briefed ABQ Tower on snow band • 908 AM- Collaborated with CWSU on TAFABQ (Best practice recommendation) • Discussed critical TAF period, SWA phone call and nailed down timing and VSBY restrictions. TAF AMD coming soon. • Traffic Management Unit briefed at ARTCC

  14. New TAF after collaboration • TAF AMD • KABQ 301618Z 3016/3112 16017G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN080 OVC150 • FM301700 23025G35KT 1SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC030 • FM301900 24025G35KT 4SM -SHSN BR BKN030 FM302200 25015G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN060 • FM310100 25011KT P6SM SCT015 BKN050 TEMPO group removed and replaced with prevailing group for Higher confidence impact. Time pushed up.

  15. SPC Issues Meso Discussion 2 hour window For moderate to Heavy snow confirmed Thinking between The CWSU/WFO.

  16. 1630 UTC /930 MST No sign of weakening ABQ

  17. To Further Get the Word Out (utilize other partners) • 912 AM- BRIEF Sal Baragiola ABQ EM • 915 AM- BRIEF Roger Tannen Bernalillo EM • 920 AM- BRIEF Bernalillo County Sheriff Dispatch • 921 AM- BRIEF ABQ Police Dept Dispatch • 924 AM- BRIEF Rio Rancho Police Dept Dispatch • 929 AM- SPS

  18. SPS • Albuquerque Impacts between 10 am and 1 pm (entire metro) • Visibilities will fall dramatically in snow and blowing snow • Road conditions may rapidly deteriorate • I-25 and I-40 (main interstates) impacted • Potential for brief period of blizzard like conditions.

  19. Final Briefings • 932 AM- Briefed Roger Tannen Bernalillo EM again on snow band (update). • 935 AM- BRIEF KOB 770 AM (Recommendation from EM) on snow band approaching ABQ. 2” snow, 40 mph winds, visibilities less than 500 feet between 10am and 11am, hazardous travel. • Aired at least 3 times between 950am and 10am • 944 AM- BRIEF. Call from TJ Wilhem Public Relations Officer ABQ EM Office issuing statement discouraging travel between 10am and noon.

  20. 1700 UTC/10 am MST ABQ

  21. How did our TAF do? • SPECI KABQ 301717Z 24025G38KT 1/4SM +SN VV010 02/M01 A2934 RMK AO2 PKWND 21038/1713 RAB09E16SNB16 PRESRR MTNS OBSC NE-SE P0000�  • SPECI KABQ 301723Z 26020G36KT 1/4SM +SN FG SCT002 OVC015 01/M01A2935 RMK AO2 PK WND 21038/1713 WSHFT 1707 RAB09E16SNB16 MTNS OBSCNE-SE P0001  • SPECI KABQ 301729Z 28020G30KT 1/4SM +SN FG BKN002 OVC011 01/M01 A2935RMK AO2 PK WND 21038/1713 WSHFT 1707 RAB09E16SNB16 MTNS OBSCNE-SE P0002�  • SPECI KABQ 301740Z 29016G23KT 1SM -SN BR BKN002 00/M01 A2936 RMK AO2PK WND 21038/1713 WSHFT 1707 RAB09E16SNB16 MTNS OBSC NE-SE P0002

  22. TAF • Timing worked out well (Collaboration efforts) • CIG and VSBY came in lower and required an immediate amendment • Winds…just shy on gusts. ** If conditions are unrepresentative, issue an amendment ASAP. This has been the ongoing feedback from our airline customers **

  23. Actual Impacts • VSBY’s fell to below 500 feet. • Squall did weaken some but not to the extent of the Models. • Dusting to one inch On grassy and elevated Surfaces. • Little accumulation noted on runway complex. ABQ

  24. Best Practices/Suggestions • Important to develop relationships with your CWSU, Airport Ops, Tower, FAA, Major Airlines. • Write TAFS with criteria and minimums in mind. • Call your CWSU to coordinate a TAF impact time which will provide a better service to people that need it most. (consistency)

  25. Best Practices/Suggestions • Call the Tower and keep them informed of radar trends and TAF thinking. • Utilize other core partners… EM’s and Media to get the word out across the board. • Focus on the critical TAF period (First 6 hours or less) only. Immediate impacts are most important. • Keep TAFS short.

  26. Suggestions for building relationships • Conduct a WFO/CWSU training exchange program • Conduct aviation outreach visits between the CWSU and WFO staff. Go out together and get to know airport managers and how they run operations. • Train your staff with the feedback. • Hold daily weather briefings between your WFO and the CWSU via phone or teleconferencing.

  27. Can anyone tell me what this cone is?

  28. Any Questions? • Acknowledgements Jim Reynolds: CWSU MIC Roger Smith: CWSU Forecaster Deirdre Kann: WFO ABQ SOO Brian Guyer: WFO Forecaster Brian: SWA ABQ Emergency Management Staff ABQ Tower

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