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Past and Current Weather

A few tips on writing a good forecast discussion: Monday, January 24 NWS Discussion as an example Atmo 456 Conlee/Seroka. Past and Current Weather. Explain recent past weather and current weather through: Observations Satellite imagery Radar imagery Synoptic set up.

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Past and Current Weather

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  1. A few tips on writing a good forecast discussion:Monday, January 24 NWS Discussion as an exampleAtmo 456Conlee/Seroka

  2. Past and Current Weather • Explain recent past weather and current weather through: • Observations • Satellite imagery • Radar imagery • Synoptic set up

  3. 1. Past and Current Weather • What NWS had: • Surface high over S. Texas early morning  dry cool conditions

  4. 1. Past and Current Weather • What NWS had: • Surface high over S. Texas early morning  dry cool conditions • Water vapor imagery shows upper level trough axis east of area

  5. 1. Past and Current Weather • What NWS had: • Surface high over S. Texas early morning  dry cool conditions • Water vapor imagery shows upper level trough axis east of area • No shortwaves as in Sunday with “surprise convection”

  6. Sunday

  7. Monday

  8. 2. Future Weather • Provide details of day-by-day forecast-- not just weather but weather systems • e.g. NWS had: • Mostly clear skies through Tuesday • Min temps close to normal, max temps slightly above normal • Few high clouds over area tonight • **Upper low to reach northern Baja early Wednesday, then trek east reaching West Texas Thursday

  9. 2. Future Weather • Connect weather to weather systems • i.e. provide cause and effect • e.g. NWS had: • Onshore surface winds return Tuesday afternoon as high moves east • Low level jet reestablished Tuesday night, strengthen to 50 kts Thursday • Stratus fill in Tuesday night • Min temps in evening before clouds move in • PWAT values to an inch Wednesday

  10. 2. Future Weather • Connect weather to weather systems • i.e. provide cause and effect • e.g. NWS had: • Onshore surface winds return Tuesday afternoon as high moves east • Low level jet reestablished Tuesday night, strengthen to 50 kts Thursday • Stratus fill in Tuesday night • Min temps in evening before clouds move in • PWAT values to an inch Wednesday • Warm advection  mostly cloudy, few light showers Wednesday • Upper flow diffluent Thursday as trough and associated 120 kt jet max at 300 mb approach from west

  11. 2. Future Weather • Provide model trends and comparisons • GFS vs. NAM/WRF vs. ECMWF • 12Z run vs. 06Z run • E.g. NWS had: • “have followed 06Z GFS for timing of front which is a few hours slower than the 00Z run” • Models trending colder in wake of front as huge chunk of cold air pulled into system • 850 mb temps to -6C midday Friday

  12. Some common errors • lower temperatures (not colder temperatures) • low pressure, high pressure (not low-pressure, high-pressure) • winds from the northwest (not Northwest)

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