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Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment

Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment. Integrating Renewables & The Smart Grid Gary Goldstein Senior Manager, International Resources Group November 11-12, 2009.

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Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment

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  1. Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment Integrating Renewables & The Smart Grid Gary Goldstein Senior Manager, International Resources Group November 11-12, 2009

  2. USAID/Hellenic Aid Cooperative Energy Program - SYNENERGY Strategic Planning in Southeast Europe and the Black Sea Region Presented by Gary Goldstein, IRG on behalf of the SSP National Planning Teams Regional Transmission Network Development Workshop Istanbul, Turkey November 11-12, 2009

  3. Strategic Planning in Support of Policy Formulation - Overview • Purpose: Build capacity within the Energy Community to support strategic energy planning and inform the policy formulation process by establishing national teams, lead by Ministry Coordinators. • Implementation: Develop integrated national energy system models using IEA-ETSAP MARKAL/TIMES, conduct data and assumptions review, and perform preliminary analyses. • Coordination: USAID/IRG and Hellenic Aid/CRES in coordination with the Ministries and Energy Community Secretariat. • Anticipated Outcome: An analysis performed by the National Planning Teams of energy efficiency and renewables opportunities, as well as other key national priorities identified, and the institutional framework for sustaining this capability.

  4. SSP Participating Countries • Contracting Parties • Albania, BiH, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia • Observer Countries • Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine • EU Countries (voluntary participants) • Bulgaria, Romania Ministries for Energy, Economy and Environment USAID Hellenic Aid Planning Team Ministry Coordinator(s) Host Institution(s) IRG/CRES Consultant Team

  5. SSP Project Activities Activity1: Establish the Planning Teams Activity 2: Obtain and develop the necessary data 2009 Activity 3: Describe the current energy system Activity 4: Data and model assumptions review Activity 5: Prepare Reference (BAU) scenario Activity 6: Identify key policy issues for analysis Activity 7: Transfer capacity to Host Institution(s) Activity 8: Conduct EE&RE and selective analyses 2010 Activity 9: Disseminate data, Reference scenario and analysis results Activity 10: Establish means for sustaining the Planning Teams 5

  6. SSP Activity Status • Most Planning Teams solidly in place and making good progress. • CP teams: Albania, BiH, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and EU teams: Bulgaria, Romania • Models calibrated, draft Reference scenarios in place, and teams preparing for data vetting and analysis data development. • Several looking to integrate the modeling with upcoming planning activities, in NEEAPs • OC teams: Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine • Ukraine and Georgia models calibrated • Moldova mostly calibrated • Preparations for data and model assumption review underway

  7. SSP / SECI Synergies • SSP national MARKAL/TIMES models will indicate levels of electricity consumption and power plant investment out over time for various strategic scenarios • SECI can provide more accurate cost estimates for the expanding regional transmission network, and examine the system stability and other issues related to possible introduction of much higher levels of renewable electricity generation

  8. ETSAP Partner Countries MARKAL/TIMES Users MARKAL/TIMES User Community • Widely used (over 70 countries, 200 institutions), proven and continually evolving modeling platform for assessing a wide range of energy, economic and environmental planning and policy issues • Flexible, verifiable and adaptable methodology for supporting global, regional, national and local decision-making

  9. Reference Energy System and an Integrated Planning Model

  10. Depicting Electricity Load Review Seasons/time of day

  11. Depicting Electricity Load Adjust Season/Time-of-day Splits Adjust Cells in dark blue. Pink cells are calculated, orange cells are linked to Sector templates

  12. Policy Indicators Arising From Model Results • Total cost of the energy system • Investment and operating costs for power plants and demand devices • Expenditure on fuels • Other annual expenditures • Total primary energy • Domestic production and imports by fuel • Fuel consumption levels • Electricity generation fuel mix • Fuel choice and levels for each service demand • Electricity timing and level (peak) by season/time-of-day • Investments requirements for new supply and demand technologies • Nature and timing of power plant builds, and refurbishment • Device (and fuel) choice • Energy (marginal) prices • Fuel to each demand sector (with/without subsidies) • Electricity by time-of-use • Emission • Sources and levels • (Marginal) cost of carbon

  13. Regional Energy Demand Planning (REDP)Evolution of Final Energy Consumption • Electricity and natural gas consumption grow from 51% to 60% of the total • But the mix is quite different, as are the changes, in each of the countries

  14. Regional Energy Demand Planning (REDP)Evolution of Electricity Generation Mix • From 2003-2027 electricity demand grows by 51% (about 3% higher in 2020 than the new WB Generation Investment Study) • Coal/lignite remains the dominant fuel • Nuclear has the biggest increase • Hydro and gas-fired plants decrease in percentage terms • Renewables grow to 5%

  15. Regional Energy Demand Planning (REDP)Install Capacity by Country (GW) • New GIS has about 47GW in 2020 • Adding a peak time-slice to the models to improve representation of capacity build requirements, and operation of peaking-only plants

  16. Regional Energy Demand Planning (REDP) Evolution of Primary Energy Supply • Primary energy use in the region increases by over 50 percent by 2027 • Almost two-thirds of this increase is supplied by coal, with increasing contributions from natural gas and oil • Gas consumption, while 2nd to coal, is lower than the new WB Regional Gas Study in 2020 (owing to cheaper fuels being available)

  17. REDP Penetration of Improved Lighting Devices in Commercial Sector in Croatia Given access to higher efficiency lights a 10.8% reduction in electricity for lighting can be realized in 2015 and a 22.1% reduction by 2027.

  18. REDP Penetration of Improved Cooling Devices (and Insulation) in Croatia Residential Sector Given access to higher efficiency air conditioners an 11.2% reduction in electricity for cooling can be realized in 2015 and a 30.5% reduction by 2027. {As demand for A/C grows in the region we see peak shift to summer in some countries.}

  19. REDP EE Measures Lead to Energy Savings & Improved Energy Security Energy savings by sector for varying levels of EE Reduction in imports share of total primary energy (2027) by Country for varying levels of EE

  20. Key Energy Sector Issues Identified by Ministries • Analysis of measures in support of the preparation of NEEAPs and NREAPs. • Evaluation of energy and investment requirements to meet more rapid economic growth. • Means for improving energy security by reducing imports and promoting domestic resources. • Analytic support for drafting of the national energy strategies. • EU 20/20/20 analysis (e.g., what does it take/cost to meet energy intensity, renewables and emission targets). • Implications of nuclear builds and/or increased access to natural gas. • Actions necessary to achieve various CO2 mitigation targets. • Implications of regional integration.

  21. NEEAP/MARKAL Analysis Illustrative Residential Sector Measures

  22. Results of NEEAP/MARKAL AnalysisResidential Sector Change in Energy Consumption for Measures

  23. Results of NEEAP/MARKAL AnalysisResidential Sector Electricity Savings from Measures* * next step, combined measures assessment

  24. NREAP/MARKAL Analysis Planned for 2011 • Energy Community RE Task Force and ECS are supporting development of national RES targets for Contracting Parties (CPs) • If adopted, CPs will need to develop a NREAP in accordance with EU Directive 2009/28/EC • Technical Assistance will consist of two components • Support to NREAP team for the identification and development of policies, programs, support mechanisms and other measures that could contribute to meeting the NREAP targets • Support to the MARKAL modelers to analyze these measures using the Strategic Planning Model to assess their cost and contribution to meeting the NREAP targets • Technical assistance will be organized as follows • Regional NREAP Process Workshop • Support to NREAP Teams • NREAP Results Workshop

  25. Milestones Going Forward

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