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Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment

Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment. Results of the Analysis of the 2015 and 2020 Forecast Periods for the Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning Project Predrag Mikša

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Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment

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  1. Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment Results of the Analysis of the 2015 and 2020 Forecast Periods for the Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning Project Predrag Mikša Project Team Leader, Electricity Coordination Center of Belgrade (EKC) November 11-12, 2009

  2. Black SeaRegional Transmission Planning Project By Predrag Mikša EKC - Electricity Coordinating Center Istanbul, November 2009

  3. Regional model – modeled systems • Transmission networks of all power systems in the region Russia Romania Georgia Ukraine Bulgaria Armenia Moldova Turkey • Equivalent of western and south-eastern UCTE grid (ENTSO-E)

  4. Regional model – Existing Interconnectors

  5. Regional model - characteristics • High voltage network-transmission network • 750kV,500kV,400kV,330kV,220kV,150kV,110kV network • Generator units at their nominal voltage level • Step-up transformers for main generation capacities • All new substations and lines that are expected to be operational till 2020 (according to the long term development plans) • Development of Regional model Guidelines

  6. BSTP – Regimes modeled • Load flow Model development • 2010 Winter peak, • 2010 Summer off-peak • 2010 Summer peak • 2015 Winter peak • 2015 Summer peak • 2015 Summer off-peak • 2020 Winter peak • 2020 Summer peak • 2020 Summer off-peak

  7. Studies – Regional model analyses • Promoting regional cooperation in transmission planning among Black Sea region TSOs • Collect national inputs and the development plans that will be used for power transmission system analysis • Load flow analyses • loading of the network • feasibility of base case exchanges • voltage profile analyses • contingency analyses (n-1 security check) • Border capacity overview • “bottle neck” evaluation (congestions) • Regional transmission planning rules • Identify potential transmission investment projects

  8. Studies – Dynamic model development Governor part Hydro turbine part • Dynamic stability major concern in region • system stability is major limiting factor for system operation and high electricity exchange level - necessity to analyze dynamic system behavior • check the maximum exchanges scenarios for stability • Russian built excitation systems to be modeled (non standard models) • New units (confirmation and verification) • HVDC devices • Dynamic model characteristics • 395GW protduction modeled (156GW in equivalents of UCTE and part of Russia, 239GW real power plants, of which 7.1GW in wind power) in 1183 generators

  9. Studies – network capacities evaluation • Evaluation of network transfer capabilities • ETSO methodology used • Identify the existing potential for electric power trade in the region • Verify values through dynamic analyses • Critical regimes (exchange) • Select outage to investigate • Monitor machines

  10. Regional model-balances and exchanges WINTER • All countries in the region have surplus of power • Very limited transfer capacities

  11. Regional model-balances and exchanges SUMMER

  12. Studies – results • Border capacities present

  13. Studies – results • Border capacities 2015

  14. Studies – results • Georgia-Turkey border • 220 kV line Batumi-Hopa (300MVA) • 400kV HVDC Akhalchike-Borcka (600MW) • Total capacity 900MVA • Static capacity 750MW • Dynamic capacity 750MW

  15. Studies – results • Georgia-Armenia border • 220 kV line Gardabani-Alaverdi (270MVA) • 2X400kV line Qsani-Hrazdan (1330MVA) • Total capacity 2930MVA • Static capacity 1200MW • Dynamic capacity 750MW • Limiting factor short circuit on Sipan line in duration 0.55s (critical clearing time)

  16. Studies – results • Georgia-Turkey border • 220 kV line Batumi-Hopa (300MVA) • 400kV HVDC Akhalchike-Borcka (600MW) • Total capacity 900MVA • Static capacity 1200MW • Dynamic capacity 750MW

  17. Studies – results • Composite capacities

  18. Next logical steps • Generation surplus projections in Black Sea region and electricity market scenarios in the period 2009 - 2020 • analyses of present and future generation expansion plans and electricity prices (according to production costs and fuel costs) • evaluation of surplus/deficit country by country in the region and external parties (ENTSO-E, Belorussia etc...) • evaluation of transfer capacities (ENTSO-E methodology) • analyses of interconnected operation of the whole region and ENTSO-E vs DC connections (export capacities) • two market based scenarios (north corridor over Ukraine and Russia, and South Corridor over Georgia, Armenia, Turkey) • comparison of necessary investments to achieve certain level of exchange (based on conclusions of generation surplus study)

  19. Thank You!

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