Conceptual Models Operational and Instructional Considerations

1. Conceptual ModelsOperational and Instructional Considerations Phil Chadwick

2. What is a Conceptual Model? • Unique representation of atmospheric structure • Explains the genesis, evolution and decay of the structure • Incorporates all of the best science about the atmospheric structure • Allows quick and accurate analysis and diagnosis of the atmospheric structure • Facilitates anticipation and prediction Warm Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model Mature Stage and confidence

3. Cold CB Conceptual Models as Building Blocks • Conceptual Models (atmospheric structures) only fit together in selected ways in the atmosphere Upper Ridge Conceptual Model Upper Trough Conceptual Model Upper Ridge Conceptual Model Upper Trough Conceptual Model Dry CB • Most effective operational meteorologists have an extensive library of conceptual models

4. Conceptual Model Conceptual Model Conceptual Model Conceptual Model Components Comprised of meteorological signatures of processes and dynamic features Warm Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model Mature Stage Large Scale Analysis and Diagnosis Medium Scale Analysis and Diagnosis Signature Small Scale Analysis and Diagnosis Signature = simplest representation of a dynamic feature Signature Signature Something a meteorologist can see … analyze … Local Scale Analysis and Diagnosis Gradients of Relative Temperature, Relative wind, etc

5. Cold CB View Warm Conveyor Belt – and Friends • Warm, moist southerly flow rising along isentropic surface • Relative gradients in WV imagery • Size • Shape • Shadow • Tone • texture 24 hours later … The Importance of the WCB Conceptual Model = Travel Nightmare Dry CB Warm CB X N ACYC CYC Warm CB Large Scale Analysis and Diagnosis Cold CB

6. Cold CB Warm Conveyor Belt (WCB) WCB Components • Deformation Zones • On all edges • Think 3D flows… Warm CB Dry CB Medium Scale Analysis and Diagnosis

7. Inflow Inflow Deformation Zone Components Comprised of: • Col • Confluent Asymptotes and • Vorticity Centres Companion N X Axis of Contraction Axis of Dilatation Paired Vorticity Centres C Paired Vorticity Centres X N Companion

8. Warm Deformation Zone - Shape Cold X N N X A Refinement to the Deformation Zone Conceptual Model

9. Deformation Zone Components DZ Components: • Col • Confluent Asymptotes - Edge • Vorticity Maximum- Whorl • Vorticity Minimum - Whorl • Simple Dynamic Features • Simple Signatures N X C Small Scale Analysis and Diagnosis … but one can go much further … … much, much further …

10. Ear Drill Down – Confirm the Meteorological Structure by finding a few Conceptual Model Components Make a quick best guess at the identification of the meteorological structure and associated conceptual model through meteorological situational awareness You know you are in Africa. A meteorologist familiar with the “Elephant Conceptual Model” will see this and quickly drill down to identify the tusk, toes… all of the signatures of an elephant. Theses pieces only go together one way to create the meteorological elephant.

11. Percolate Up – Analyze the Conceptual Model Components to Identify the Meteorological Structure Analyze the apparent signatures and deduce the associated conceptual model and meteorological structure independent of meteorological situational awareness Etc… You aren’t sure where you are... But it’s not Kansas. A meteorologist familiar with the “Elephant Conceptual Model” will see this and percolate up to identify the tusk, toes, eye … and eventually all of the signatures of an elephant. Theses pieces only go together one way to create the meteorological elephant.

12. Percolate Up – Analyze the Conceptual Model Components to Identify the Meteorological Structure Of course… a more thorough meteorologist might have looked for the elephant ears… and more signatures before going to warning … And invented the rhinoceros conceptual model… Different Day… Different Beast… A meteorologist familiar with the “Elephant Conceptual Model” will see this and percolate up to identify the tusk, toes, eye … and issue an elephant forecast for what is really a rhinoceros… although he might think it is an elephant. The forecast will be beastly bad…

13. Operational Drill Down Conceptual Model approach fast, effective analysis and diagnosis Summary of current state of the art science Employs human strengths and situational awareness – gets the job done Instructional Percolate Up Conceptual Model Approach thorough, effective way to train and develop science Summary of current state of the art science Encourages curiosity and investigation of the real atmosphere Conceptual ModelsOperational and Instructional Considerations

14. Conceptual Models Operational and Instructional Considerations • Humans have unique skill set to interpret shapes and patterns out of apparent chaos • Hundreds of important Conceptual Models • Remote sensing data has spatial and temporal resolution commensurate with any atmospheric process Humans + Remote Sensing Data + Conceptual Models = Productive Human-Machine Symbiotic Relationship Thank You! CMOS This is the “Take-Home” Message Questions?

15. Conceptual Models Operational and Instructional Considerations ‘s” So What? No more “ Conceptual models are the building blocks to construct a meteorological mental image of the atmosphere Make better use of remote sensing data Produce better products & services Questions? Better meteorologists Nowcasting focus 0-24 hours Consistent with MSC policy