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Are better educated migrants returning? Evidence from multi‐dimensional education data

NORCACE seminar 11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand. Are better educated migrants returning? Evidence from multi‐dimensional education data. Tiit Tammaru , Enel Pungas, Ott Toomet University of Tarty Department of Geography. This study was financially supported by

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Are better educated migrants returning? Evidence from multi‐dimensional education data

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  1. NORCACE seminar 11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand Are better educated migrants returning? Evidence from multi‐dimensional education data Tiit Tammaru, Enel Pungas, Ott Toomet University of Tarty Department of Geography This study was financially supported by European Social Fund Estonian Science Foundation

  2. Motivation Increased East-West migration in Europe Issues related to „brain-drain“ and „brain gain“ in the focus of debates Studies mainly based on level of education

  3. Presentation outline • Literature review on education and return migration • Background of the research population • Main trends of Estonian-Finland migration • Characteristics of Estonian migrants in Finland • Intentions of return migration by education • Discussion

  4. Literature review: Education and return migration

  5. Relationship between the level of education and return migration Less educated return (DaVanzo and Morrison 1981; Reyes 1997; Massey & Espinoza 1997; Curran & Rivero-Fuentes 2003) Interpretation: Return migration is a correction of a failed move to a foreign country

  6. Relationship between the level of education and return migration Better educated return (Reicher 2001; Constant & Massey 2003; King and Newbold 2008; Bijwaard2010) Interpretations: Better educated are spatially more mobile They are valued also at country of origin especially when studyed abroad Correction of the failed move to a foreign country

  7. Other education dimensions highlighted in literature Studies abroad (Borjas and Bratsberg 1996; Bijwaard 2010; Dustmann and Glitz 2011) Over-education (Dustmann et al 2007; Kahanec 2009; Drinkwater et al 2009; Trevena 2011)

  8. Aim of the study To study the associations between intentions of return migration and education Dimensions of education to be studied: level of education (3 levels) type of education (general/vocational) education country (origin/destination) perceived over-education (yes/no)

  9. Background: Estonia-Finland migration

  10. Case study countries Estonia (EE) and Finland (FI) Neighbouring countries EE part of the Soviet Union 1944–1991 EE part of European Union since 2004 and eurozone since 2011 Similar languages but differences in wealth No EE diaspora in FI up until 1991

  11. Estonian migration with Finland, 1991-2010 Source: Statistics Finland

  12. Estonian migration with Finland, 1991–2010 Immigration mainly implies return migration Immigration ca ¼ of emigration Source: Statistics Finland

  13. Size of Estonian of Estonian diaspora in Finland, 1991–2010 Before 1991, almost no EE diaspora in FI In 2011, largest EE diaspora in FI In 2011, EE larges immigrant group in FI Source: Statistics Finland

  14. Research data

  15. Survey among EE migrants in FI • Spring 2009 • 1000 immigrant of EE origin living in FI • Sample drawn from the FI Population • Register • Telephone interviews (30 min) conducted • from EE • Survey company Turu-uuringute AS

  16. Results

  17. Emigration motive

  18. Education ofEE migrants in FI

  19. Studied in FI by age at migration

  20. Changes in the labour market position of EE migrants in FI

  21. Intends to return from FI to EE Frequency Percent Yes 237 24 Otherwise 763 76

  22. Intention to return EE by • age at migration

  23. Intention to return EE by years lived in FI

  24. Results of the logistic regression, odds ratios • (intends to return=1, otherwise=0)

  25. Regression continued …

  26. Robustness checks • Comparability problems with odds ratios • across models, groups and samples • (Mood 2010) • Linear Probability Models were estimated • Similar results were obtained

  27. Discussion of theresults

  28. Discussion of the results • Return migration intentions by education • no differences by level of education • people with vocational education wish somewhat • more likely to return – education too specific? • FI education relates tohigher return intention up • untilwe control for age at migration • Over-education elevates intentions to return – but • U-shape change in the labour market position

  29. Discussion of the results • Other important differences in return intentions • EE ethnic minorities want to stay in FI, although • Estonians are better integrated in FI • Migrants for better income have elevated return • migration intentions • People out of labour force wish to stay in FI

  30. NORCACE seminar 11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand Thank you! Tiit.Tammaru@ut.ee This study was financially supported by European Social Fund Estonian Science Foundation

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