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Long term trends and some implications of decreasing global interdependence

Long term trends and some implications of decreasing global interdependence. Jonathan D. Moyer, Ph.D. Research Assistant Professor Director Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures Josef Korbel School of International Studies pardee.du.edu.

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Long term trends and some implications of decreasing global interdependence

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  1. Long term trends and some implications of decreasing global interdependence Jonathan D. Moyer, Ph.D. Research Assistant Professor Director Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures Josef Korbel School of International Studies pardee.du.edu

  2. Background: The Pardee Center at the University of Denver • Home of the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform – originally developed by Barry B. Hughes • Long-term, integrated scenario analysis, for 186 countries to 2100 • Free to download from pardee.du.edu

  3. Previous and Ongoing Research: • International Organizations: New Partnership for African Development (African Union), United Nations Environment Programme, United Nations Human Development Reports, World Bank • Governments: European Union Commission, Kosovo, Peru, Slovenia, United States, Western Cape Provincial Government of South Africa • Non-governmental Organizations: Action Against Hunger, SENS Foundation, Population Services International • Private: Arrow Electronics, Google Public Data Explorer, AMG Bank, Vertex

  4. This Presentation: • Explore global trends across issue area • Introduce the International Futures (IFs) tool • Is Global Interdependence in Decline?

  5. International Futures (IFs) Governance Government Finance International Politics Education Economics Health Infrastructure Demographics Energy Agriculture Technology Environment

  6. International Futures (IFs) Governance Government Finance International Politics Education Economics Health Infrastructure Demographics Energy Agriculture Technology Environment

  7. Information Communication Technology

  8. International Futures (IFs) Governance Government Finance International Politics Education Economics Health Infrastructure Demographics Energy Agriculture Technology Environment

  9. The past 25 years have been characterized by strengthened governance capacity, security, and inclusion. Internationally, the world has seen a massive rise in interconnections.

  10. International Futures (IFs) Governance Government Finance International Politics Education Economics Health Infrastructure Demographics Energy Agriculture Technology Environment

  11. Kantian Tripod: Peace through Interdependence

  12. 1975

  13. 1985

  14. 1995

  15. Threats to Kantian Interdependence: • Economic Interdependence: • Tightening borders to capital and labor • Distribution of GDP gains • Renewable energy growth • Robotics and artificial intelligence • Institutional Interdependence • Recently Ineffective: European Union, Arab League • Technology and capital flows increase complexity of collective action problems • IOs have been used to project power and influence, undermining credibility • China is creating alternative IO framework • Normative Interdependence • No demonstrated relationship between democracies and growth • “Premature” democratization can be destablizing • Recent democratization efforts unsuccessful

  16. Changing Distribution of Material and Institutional Capabilities Percent of Global Capabilities

  17. Structure of International System

  18. Probability of Conflict between China and US

  19. Connect with us! facebook.com/PardeeCenter facebook.com/AfricaFuturesProject @PardeeCenterIFs @AfricanFutures @buzz_churn pardee.center@du.edu ifs.du.edu Thank You!

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