2013 Census : Greater Christchurch and its communities – some results and future directions

1. 2013 Census : Greater Christchurch and its communities – some results and future directions James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) December 5th, 2013 Seminar

2. Updating monitoring Christchurch recovery post earthquakes .. ? • A dash board summary • updated indicators from official and administrative data, estimates … (eg. building permits, jobs, external migration … ) • Analysis of recent statistics • Eg. School enrolments • Discussion / analysis of implications for the recovery scenarios ….

3. This seminar .. 2013 census focus • Some quick summary results • Some initial modelling / analysis of what it implies demographically • Where we go from here • Timetable for 2013 outputs census release … • What we use the census for – • Applications of the census • Some key applications in population and land use planning • Working together to bring the appropriate results to different user groups and uses

4. Common Indicators … • Leeds / Business Demographic data • Building permits • External Migration • Vitals – births and deaths • School rolls • PHA enrolments • Health statistics

5. Recovery Momentum : Number of Residential Building Consents – by Month to August 2013

6. Recovery Momentum : Number of Residential Building Consents – 12mths moving average by Month to August 2013

7. Greater Christchurch - Long Term International Migration – 12 mth moving average

8. Effect of the Chch EQ on international long term migration flows – to date • Comparing relative rates of international long term migration – Chchvs North Island … • Differential migration arrivals / departures for Chch • Decreased departures effect peaked in December 2012 – April 2013 • Increase in arrivals has been peaked over Feb 2013 to July 2013 (Sept 2013 effect small…)

9. Estimate change in population of Greater Christchurch from Long Term International Migration effect of the EQ

10. Effects of the EQ on population change at different scales … • At Greater Christchurch level • Moderate population loss and subsequent recovery • At TLA level • More dramatic effects – especially intense increased development pressure and growth Selwyn District, some population loss for Christchurch City … • At suburb / community level • Very large rapid changes – increase and decreases within each TLA – community rebuilding / adaptation

11. Greater Christchurch – Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)

12. Waimakariri & Selwyn Wards– Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)

13. Christchurch City 2013 Wards– Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)

14. Maori Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward

15. Pasifika Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward

16. Asian Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward

17. 2013 Census results …?

18. SNZ Estimated % change in usually resident population – June Yrs – 2007-2013

19. Comparing Census and SNZ Pop Estimates … % change per annum

20. 2006-2013 Chge Pop Density (Census)

21. 2006-2013 Chge Pop Density (Census)

22. Comparing GtrChchPopn Estimates, Adjusted Census Counts and Projections – SNZ over estimate?

23. Comparing Chch City Popn Estimates, Adjusted Census Counts and Projections – SNZ over estimate

24. Comparing WaimakaririPopn Estimates, Adjusted Census Counts and Projections - SNZ under estimate

25. Comparing Selwyn Popn Estimates, Adjusted Census Counts and Projections Projections - SNZ under estimate

26. Changing age structures … Greater Christchurch

27. Changing age structures … Christchurch City

28. Changing age structures … Waimakariri

29. Changing age structures … Selwyn

30. Focus on the Population Census, its uses, role and future product roll out

31. The census … • Is the most important part of the official statistics system? • It sustains the quality of other official and administrative statistics – because … • It provides a robust reference frame that links a wide range of attributes at a high level of detail, variety and comprehensiveness (96+% coverage…?)

32. How does the census relate to other official and administrative statistics … • It sustains the quality of other official and administrative statistics – because … • It helps determine response bias in other less comprehensive sources • Improves the accuracy by which different sources of stats can be linked / integrated • Provides a level of detail able to be used for • the planning of local services and infrastructure – spatial planning • Supports analysis of needs and characteristics and dynamics of specific ethnic, age and other groups for future planning

33. What does the NZ Census of Population and Dwellings tell us towards this? • Population • Families and Households • Dwellings and land use • Demography / Language / culture / ethnicity • Disability / dependency (benefits & income support) / socioeconomic status • Economy/industries, jobs / occupations and salary income • Travel to work behaviour (mode, origin – destination) • Residential migration movement history between census (residential location 5 yrs ago, current residential and census night locations)

34. Greater Christchurch past and future • Population history, population drivers and future projection scenarios… • Household types – household formation behaviour • Households by Dwelling types - demand/supply (households by dwelling type type) and dwelling supply / suitability (zoning / land use controls) • Industrial / “economic” activities – jobs by industry and occupation, Workplace to residence travel patterns / modes / transport infrastructure • Infrastructure and amenities – roads, schools, communications, water supply, sewage and drainage, health services …

35. Applications of the census … • Population and land use forecasting • Transport planning • Education and health planning • Economic / industry / infrastructure / workforce planning • Resource / Environmental management • … service planning • Business operational planning and marketing • Social, economic and cultural (language) policies …

36. Population census and other sources – joining the dots • Population census (population, households, dwellings, jobs …) • External migration statistics • Vitals – births and deaths • Industrial and residential land use – land information system • Digital cadastral land parcels and property title system (Council rates, Quotable Value) • Physical / environmental attributes of land units - LINZ • Business demographic data – business units, positions) • Building consents

37. Economy, community and land use in Greater Christchurch past, present and futures • Residential land use ... • Population (usually resident, non-residents .. international / internal temporary residents) • Age, sex and family / household circumstances • Families, households, dwellings (existing land use, capability/suitability, zoning, nature of improvements), residential infrastructure and amenities • Industrial land use .. • Industrial activities (business units) (jobs) (existing land use, capabilities / suitability, zoning, nature of improvements), (turnover, payroll, assets) • Jobs (workplace by residence location , trvl mode) (industry, occupation, hours), (qualifications), (wage and salary income) • Non-Industrial land use .. • Nature of land use and nature of improvements

38. 2013 Census access – some key dates • December 3rd 2013 – Regional / TLA summaries Part 1 • February 4th 2014 – Regional / TLA summaries Part 2 • Feb 18th 2014 – Quickstats about Christchurch • March 11th 2014 – NZ.Stat – Part 1 some detailed tables down to area unit level • Feb/March 2014 – current custom tables time line • March 25th 2014 – meshblock dataset • April 8th – 2013 Census standard datalab dataset • May 2014 – more NZ.Stat (culture and identity)

39. 2013 Census – some key stats for future population, households / dwellings and employment / land use modelling • TLA by TLA 5 yrs ago by age (5 yr age, single yr of age) by sex • Years at usual residence by residence 5 yrs ago …. • Residence by workplace area unit by travel to work mode • Jobs by industry and workplace TLA / area unit • Jobs by industry and residence TLA / area unit • Employment participation status / types by age and sex and TLA / Area Unit • Household formation stats – housing formation propensities by age, sex and household type • Age single years and sex (TLA, Area Unit)

40. Migration drivers of population projections • Key assumption – driver – migration • Last census provides key evidence of recent migration behaviour • Project future migration assumptions • base on a long term view • accounting for cyclical and one off events (eg. Earthquake effects) • Different migration processes at different levels – GtrChch, TLA and within TLA • Include residential capacity / demand behaviour assumptions at suburb level .. • Translate population in numbers of households / dwellings

41. Problems – the 7 yr gap – challenges for estimating migration movements .. • Census uses the question – what was your residential address five years ago (assumed to be the time of the previous census) • Designed to sync with the five year period since the last census • But it is now 7 years since the last census • It will generate some headaches in preparing estimates of trends in migration flows and migration rates – as needed to do new population projections • Statistics NZ 2013 census based projections at TLA level will be in late 2014 and into 2015 for more localised suburb level projections

42. Census applied to modelling population futures …. • Analyse migration history from census and combine with other data to model migration • births, deaths, external migration flows … • Prepare future migration scenario assumptions … • with other inputs …. residential land use capacity, expected future change in jobs .. • Derive population projections