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Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region

Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region. ”FORESIGHT SESSIONS AND EXPECTED RESULTS” Helena Kyster-Hansen Tetraplan. Challenges. Societal Challenges (Climate Change, Peak Oil, Competitiveness, Sustainability ...)

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Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region

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  1. Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region • ”FORESIGHT SESSIONS AND EXPECTED RESULTS” • Helena Kyster-Hansen • Tetraplan

  2. Challenges • Societal Challenges (Climate Change, Peak Oil, Competitiveness, Sustainability ...) • Linking Transport Policy on different levels with other Policy (Research etc.) • Decision-making under deep uncertainty • Forecasts on what will happen in 40 years are very likely to be wrong

  3. Foresight processes • Foresight is a conceptual framework for a number of forward-looking approaches of informed decision-making that include long-term considerations (Miles 2008). • Answer to a lack of governance strategies dealing with complex and unpredictable transformation patterns. • They focus on the increasing need of both economy and policy for generating anticipatory strategies and future scenarios in the present for the present.

  4. Application of Foresight • Transparent structured process for decision-making • Forward-looking attitude– anticipative • Provoking, creative and motivating • Participative approach • Mutual learning and strategic dialogue • Reachingconsensus • Linking to wider socio-economic issues • Coordinated/coherent action

  5. Knowledge about the present Alternative futures What if What if What if Two basic elements of Foresight Exploratory approach:

  6. What to do „possible future” Present actions Alternative futures Normative approach:

  7. Three Facets of Foresight Thanks to Klaus Kubeczko & Doris Wilhelmer

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