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Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS). Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 25 February 2014. Outline. A short introduction to GIPPS Implementation of GIPPS WWRP Polar Prediction Project

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global integrated polar prediction system gipps

Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)

Thomas Jung

Alfred Wegener Institute,

Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

25 February 2014

outline
Outline
  • A short introduction to GIPPS
  • Implementation of GIPPS
    • WWRP Polar Prediction Project
    • WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative
      • Presentation by Vladimir Ryabinin
  • Coordination
gipps
GIPPS
  • Global Integrated Polar Prediction System
    • Global: International effort and poles have global influences
    • Integrated: Interconnection between systems and system will be integrated (research, observations and services)
    • Polar prediction will be central
  • Three time scales
    • Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal)
    • Medium-term predictability (seasonal to decadal)
    • Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries)
benefits
Benefits
  • Improved understand of key processes that drive polar weather and climate
  • Improved models
  • Improved data assimilation systems
  • Optimized observing system
  • Improved services (e.g. shipping and long-term planning)
opportunities and risks
OpportunitiesandRisks
  • Some statements from the report:
  • The Arctic is likely to attract substantial investment over the coming decade ($100 bn)
  • The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions
  • Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic need to be closed urgently
    • http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/reports/climate-change/arctic-report-2012
ppp mission statement
PPP Mission Statement

„Promote cooperative international researchenablingdevelopmentofimprovedweatherand environmental predictionservicesforthe polar regions, on time scalesfromhourlytoseasonal“

An importantaddition:

„This constitutesthehourlytoseasonalresearchcomponentofthe WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)“

the wwrp ppp steering group
The WWRP-PPP Steering Group
  • Thomas Jung (chair)
  • Peter Bauer
  • David Bromwich
  • Paco Doblas-Reyes
  • Chris Fairall
  • Marika Holland
  • TrondIversen
  • Brian Mills
  • Pertti Nurmi
  • Don Perovich
  • Phil Reid
  • Ian Renfrew
  • Gregory Smith
  • Gunilla Svensson
  • Mikhail Tolstykh

SG4, Boulder, 1-3 October 2013

  • Jonny Day (APECS liasion)
  • Neil Gordon (WMO consultant)
research areas
Research Areas

Source: PPP Implementation Plan

observational challenges
Observational Challenges

Synop, AIREP, DRIBU, TEMPandPILOT

Polar datacoverageofconventionalobservations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012

  • P. Bauer (ECMWF)
role of sea ice in weather prediction
RoleofSeaIce in WeatherPrediction

T2m Difference: Observed Minus PersistedSeaIce

  • P. Bauer (ECMWF)
sea ice prediction
Seaiceprediction

Mean September seaiceconcentrations (1979-2007)

MITgcm @ 4km resolution, Simulation desribed in Nguyen et al (2012) andRignot et al. (2012)

ppp flagship activities
PPP FlagshipActivities
  • Seaiceprediction
    • Explorepredictability
    • Developpredictionsystems
  • Linkagesbetween polar regionsandlower-latitudes
    • Determinemechanismsandstrengths
    • Implicationsforpredictions in themid-latitudes
  • Improvedavailabilityofobservationsfrom polar regions
  • The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
year of polar prediction yopp

Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017

  • YOPP mid- 2017 to mid-2019
  • Consolidation Phase mid-2019 to 2022
Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
  • Preparation Phase2013 to mid-2017
  • Consolidation Phasemid-2019 to 2022

Community engagement

Intensive observing periods

Data denial experiments

Align with otherplanned activities

Dedicated model experiments

Model developments

Develop imple- mentation plan

Research into use & value of forecasts

Dedicated reanalyses

Preparatory research

Intensive verification effort

Operational implementation

Summer schoolWorkshops

YOPP publications

Summer school

Liaise with funders

YOPP conference

yopp key elements
YOPPKey Elements
  • Comprehensiveobservationalsnapshot
    • In situ andsatellitedata
    • Observingsystem design (datadenialexperiments)
    • Supersites (modelgridboxesMOSAiC)
  • Model development (e.g. Transpose-CMIP)
  • Community datasets (reforecasts, specialarchiving etc.)
  • Frontierexperiments (e.g. high-resolution modelling)
  • See draft YOPP Implementation Plan – Inf. 12-1
immediate plans assw aos 2 helsinki
Immediate Plans – ASSW / AOS-2 Helsinki
  • 8 April 2014
    • One day YOPP Planning meeting – emphasis on observations and many partners invited (including IICWG)
  • 9 April 2014
    • Thomas Jung will take part in Stakeholders Panel as part of AOS-2 on 9 April
    • “Town Hall Meeting” with panel discussing PPP/YOPP in evening (panelists include Gilbert Brunet, Thomas Jung and Mark Drinkwater)
immediate plans wwosc linkages
Immediate PlansWWOSC & Linkages
  • 16-21 August 2014
    • PPP session at World Weather
    • Open Science Conference, Montréal
    • PPP-SG-5 meeting in association with this will “finalise” YOPP Plan
  • 10-12 December 2014
    • International Workshop on Polar-lower Latitudes Linkages and Their Role in Weather and Climate Prediction – being planned for Barcelona. Invitation only; collaboration between PPP and PCPI
ppp take home messges
PPP – Take homemessges
  • Polar predictionis a topicofincreasingimportance
    • Decisionmaking in the high-latitudes
    • Implicationsforthelower-latitudes
  • PPP promotesresearchin polar prediction
  • PPP also promotesresearchintotheuseandvalueof polar predictions in decisionmaking
  • PPP has a strong educationalcomponent
  • PPP flagshipthemes
    • Seaiceprediction
    • Linkagesbetween polar and non-polar regions
    • YOPP (seedraft YOPP Implementation Plan)
coordination
Coordination
  • EC-PORS
  • International Polar Partnership Initiative (IPPI)
  • PPP and PCPI
recommendations of ec pors to cg 17
Recommendationsof EC-PORS to Cg-17

Points Raised Earlier:

    • Regular feedback on progress
    • Coordination between PPP and PCPI, and role of ICO for Polar Prediction at AWI
    • Coordination with other organisations
    • Promote GIPPS with
      • Member states (Trust Fund)
      • Funding agencies
    • Consider GIPPS funding from regular WMO budget

Suggestion:

  • Draftproposaltobediscussedandpossiblyrevised in Research break out group
  • Discussionoftheoutcomewith all panelmembers