Personal Preparation. Read the wall policies DO Personal fitness under way again 72-hour kit? I am working on mine again. Choices about where and how to live <Are you willing to vote for taxes to pay for codes, better buildings, better public safety services?>
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Is that a confusing picture in a real world? <yes>
Make gradual transition from quakes and wavesto vulcanismWhich one is the real source of trouble for humans, magma/volcunism or quaking?
Reading the book is vital.
History Channel (Thursday) indicated a potential warning time of up to two minutesHowever, consider that the longer your warning time, the less you will need it. Those who need it the most will tend to have the shortest possible warning time.
no net movement of water
2004 – 9.1 Sumatran quake – largest on Earth in 40 years
Water wave as secondary factor? 305,000 dead
Direct quake deaths?
Alaskan quake of 1964 – about 100 dead
Chilean quake of 1960 – a few thousand dead
Fukushima, Japan quake of 2011 – 25,000 dead
How well correlated are similar magnitudes to casualties?
Sensors: sea floor – shaking/displacement
Surface bouys – compare change in oscillations
GPS between established points
450 mph (500?) slows to 40 mph
Wave length of 60-100 miles converts to a few miles or less
Amplitude increases from a few inches to many feet
How difficult might it be to create a “run-up” map and public safety procedures for alerts?A good ePort might look at phone apps and Web search for ‘run up’ map availability for coastal communities.How excited might the Chamber of Commerce be to advertise run-up maps? <Jaws Mayor – “Ok so we had someone eaten by a shark.”
Miles per second x 60 = miles per minute
Miles per minute x 60 = miles per hour
P wave: 3.7 mps = 3,600 x 3.7 = 13,320 mph
S wave: 1.9 mps = 60 x 60 x 1.9 = 6,840 mph
History Channel said P waves travel at 15,000 mph. It’s OK either way.
Questions: Is a P-wave based signal a type of “prediction”, even though the quake is already under way? <yes>Is it true that the more you might benefit from a P-wave warning, the less time you will get? <yes, why?>
Effective warning requires:1. Instrument detection2. Calculate Magnitude3. Determine type of movement4. Determine potential targets & local vulnerabilities5. Warning delivery: - from measuring station - to ‘street level’6. All done in time for people to react usefullyMuch has been automated, but gaps remain.
In the Fukushima area, a small town mayor was holding a meeting on emergency preparation and ended up on a flag pole
Rocky band along escape route -- stream flow backing up somewhere upstream
Narrow stairs -- crowded stairs. Where are your kids and your flip-flops?
Difficult ascent through terrain and vegetation
Warning time and method? <siren in the wind or during a party>
Tidal condition? Darkness?
Inland may actually be lower ground in some places
P 117 – some people evacuated to mountain tops thousands of feet above sea level – others went down to the beach to watch.
Allred’s rule for situational awareness
Volcano or high mountain
Slab pull downward re-melts to feed the volcano
Evaluate these three statements
2. More than 500,000 people live under active threat of vulcanism?
Volcanoes don’t kill people?
<Ring of Buildings>
3. About 75% of all volcanoes are on the Ring of Fire?
Hawaiian hotspot track shift.
New land area
New soil-forming & commercial minerals
New land area above sea level
What’s the difference between:
Geothermal energy - Milgro Nurseries; and,
Geo-exchange - Murray High School?
Vulcanism – magma reaching near the surface along major transitions between world-class tectonic plates, and at hot-spotsAt most locations, what substance creates the transition between magma and the surface? <12>How many are there in Utah? <1,500>
Average distance from hypocenter or focus to epicenter (surface)10 milesHow long will the shock wave (P) reaches the nearest possible seismograph?
SLCC Redwood campus
Notice the lack of magma chambers. What is the transition substance between magma and the surface?
How does that differ from geo-exchange?
How many of each are there in SL area?
Also, page 67 discusses the wise man who build his house upon the rock . . . or was it sand, or was it clay?What is the problem with clay?(Loma Prieta and Nimitz freeway, 1989)
Slow quakesCalculate how much inadequate creep would lead to a recurrence interval of 30 years for mega-quakes that release M8.0 or greater energy?<Hint: recent mega-quakes have shown earth movements of 10-60 feet, laterally and/or vertically>
Assume 10 feet of mega-movement every 30 years:1/3 foot (four inches) per year of inadequate ‘slow quake’ or creep per year.So, a one-to four inch annual creep along a major plate boundary perhaps ought to be more like four-eight inches per year to prevent mega-quake build-up.
As such, four or more inches of movement per year would, at the least, mean major quakes annually at many “Ring of Fire” locations.Perhaps we should stop trying so hard to predict quakes, and simply prepare for them.
Reverse the concept that modern life is turning hazards into disasters and disasters into catastrophes:instead, by making hard choices to fund better infrastructure and building practices, we turn catastrophes back into merely ‘cracks in the sidewalk.’
Notice pictures on page 102: Many areas remained inundated – water did not go back out because the land submerged or washed away.Otherwise, community ‘run-up’ maps are helpful. Few communities have them and fewer want to advertise them.
Futuresolution:New city hall with 1,000 person capacity, flow-through main floor, and emergency supply storage.
Problems:1. Emphasis on future (someday)2. Narrow staircases on two sides.3. Too many people in town.Better solution:1. Personal fitness2. Situational awareness – adapt to conditions to reach higher ground3. Promote and use alert systems.
Are we Prepared?10% ordinances up-to-date30% ordinances enforced15% buildings retrofitted or new80% implemented properly0.1 x 0.3 x 0.15 x 0.8 = ?<0.0036 or 1/3 of one percent>
Wasatch Front MountainsEast side Wasatch – igneous ‘fire rock’ mixed with old sedimentaryWest side Oquirrhs – sedimentary uplift infused with igneous intrusions
Geothermal heat on west side of Utah
old sediments (sandstone) with fossil fuels – oil, coal, gas, shale, tar sand
Lava beds in southern Utah
Wasatch Plateau – south toward St. George- sedimentary with fossil fuels- 12,000 foot tall volcanoes and small cinder conesfurther south
Lava beds at south and north ends of Utah(with Yellowstone ‘hot spot’ and caldera ‘scar’ running across Idaho)Old sediments dominate eastern Utah, with fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas, shale, tar sand)
Unzen, Japan built a flow channel for volcanic flows. It was severely over-topped in 1991. At least they tried.
Ring of Fire –
Ring of Buildings?
It is easy to wonder about people in Unzen, but truth is 500,000,000 people live near an active volcano – many living on the flanks or in debris flow pathways.Why?
Natural Service Functions- new soil minerals- nice views- crowding elsewhere- industrial minerals and metals- often a nice climate and/or near oceansLand prices are lower after each catastrophe!
2/3 of all volcanoes are located on the ‘Ring of Fire’magma = molten rockasthenosphere – melts and flows when close enough to crust to relieve pressure – otherwise solid metal
Rock samples – crust is lightweightmostly oxygen, silica, aluminumplutonic – granite, rhyolitemafic – low in silica – ‘flow’felsic – high in silica – ‘blow’
SummarizeEarth crust is made of dried, cooled and crystallized rock that was once molten.The more that magma contain silicates (sticky & viscous) and gases (expansive,popping), the more an eruption will be explosive.Heavier, less volative magma will tend to flow slowly over the ground (lava beds)or cool off deep under the earth and never reach the surface – plutonics(granite, rhyolite, etc.)
CompareStrato – steep, explosive ‘blow’Shield – shallow slope, slower flowDome – very explosiveCinder cones – small (popcorn)Lava beds, heavy, slowPlutonics – crystals that never made it to the surfaceHot spot - caldera
Why does Krakatoa look small right now?
Three Power plants