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NCAS Seasonal Climate Discussion, 2 April 2012

Review of Northern Winter 2011/12 Mike Blackburn National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading Seasonal Climate Discussion 2 April 2012. NCAS Seasonal Climate Discussion, 2 April 2012. Summary Drivers for global circulation - La Niña, MJO, sea-ice, (stratosphere)

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NCAS Seasonal Climate Discussion, 2 April 2012

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  1. Review of Northern Winter 2011/12 Mike Blackburn National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading Seasonal Climate Discussion 2 April 2012 NCAS Seasonal Climate Discussion, 2 April 2012

  2. Summary • Drivers for global circulation • - La Niña, MJO, sea-ice, (stratosphere) • Observed regional anomalies • - UK and European precipitation, windstorms • Large scale circulation • - Teleconnection patterns, Atlantic jet, global anomalies • - Winter onset in Europe • - Eurasian blocking / cold period Jan/Feb NCAS Seasonal Climate Discussion, 2 April 2012

  3. La Niña, 2011/12 SST anomaly DJF 11/12 OLR anomaly DJF 11/12 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

  4. La Niña, compare with 2010/11 SST anomaly DJF 10/11 SST anomaly DJF 11/12 OLR anomaly DJF 10/11 OLR anomaly DJF 11/12 NOAA ESRL

  5. Tropical variability - atmosphere Active MJO: strongest late Autumn and late Winter NOAA CPC (pentad averages)

  6. MJO activity Oct-Nov 11 (with EC monthly forecasts) Forecast: phase good but amplitude weak in Nov. NOAA CPC

  7. MJO activity JFM12 (with EC monthly forecasts) Last month: eastward propagation well forecast NOAA CPC

  8. Arctic sea-ice extent Maximum sea-ice extent, March 2012 NOAA CPC

  9. Arctic sea-ice: concentration anomalies NOAA CPC

  10. Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere Winter 2011/12 • Strong early vortex • Disturbed vortex late Jan / early Feb • 1991-2004 climatology and range Met Office stratospheric analyses, processed at Reading

  11. - Observed UK / European anomalies -

  12. UK temperature anomaly DJF 2011-12 DJF 11-12 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 UK Met Office

  13. UK precipitation anomaly (% normal) DJF 2011-12 DJF 11-12 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 UK Met Office

  14. UK precipitation anomaly (% normal) 2011 Annual 2011 DJF10-11 MAM 2011 JJA 2011 SON 2011 DJF 11-12 UK Met Office

  15. European precipitation anomalies (%) January 2012 DJF 2011/12 February 2012 NOAA ESRL

  16. Early Winter windstorms 3 January, 12 UTC 8 December, 18 UTC Cyclone “Friedhelm” DIAMET flight Extreme gusts, 165 kt, Cairngorm UK Met Office

  17. Early Winter windstorms 3 January, 12 UTC 8 December, 18 UTC Cyclone “Friedhelm” ECMWF analysis

  18. - Large scale circulation -

  19. Teleconnection patterns AO Pmsl NAO Z500 PNA Z500 NOAA CPC

  20. Jet streams – DJF 2011-12 Z250 anom DJF 2011-12 NOAA ESRL

  21. Jet streams – DJF 2011-12 Z250 anom DJF climate NOAA ESRL

  22. Jet streams – DJF 2011-12 December January February March NOAA ESRL

  23. Atlantic jet: U850 latitude-time Tim Woollings 1 Dec 2011 10 Mar 2012

  24. Atlantic jet: U850 latitude-time Tim Woollings 1 Dec 2010 10 Mar 2011

  25. Atlantic jet: U850 latitude-time Tim Woollings 1 Dec 2009 10 Mar 2010

  26. Winter onset - 250hPa height (approx) weekly averages: November - December 2011 Nov 04-11 Nov 11-16 Nov 18-23 Nov 25 - Dec 02 Dec 02-12 Dec 09-16 ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

  27. European Blocking : Winter 2011/12 Z250, 55°-70°N (weak throughout December) NOAA ESRL / CPC

  28. Jet streams – Eurasian blocking period 20 Jan to 10 Feb 2012 (Eurasian blocking) 15 Feb to 18 Mar 2012 (Atlantic ridge extends into Europe) NOAA ESRL

  29. 250hPa height – hemispheric planetary wave pattern : (approx) weekly averages: Jan – Feb 2012 Jan 06-11 Jan 13-20 Jan 20-27 Jan 27 – Feb 03 Feb 03-10 Feb 10-17 ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

  30. European anomalies – February 05-11 Temperature anomaly Precipitation total • Eurasian blocking, extensive severe cold, fatalities NOAA ESRL

  31. - END -

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