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Climate Outlook – April 2012 PowerPoint Presentation
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Climate Outlook – April 2012 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Outlook – April 2012

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  1. Climate Outlook – April 2012 La Nina Dissipated in Early April; Neutral Conditions Expected through June

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season JFM 2012 SST forecast From Dec Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.45 Trop 0.48 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.45 Trop 0.44 JFM 2012 SST obs anom (deg C)

  3. SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season JFM 2012 SST obs anom (deg C) warm cold JFM 2012 precip anom (mm/day) wet dry

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast JFM 2012 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.043 (0.010) T 0.074 (0.017) Rate of Return: G 0.040 (0.010) T 0.074 (0.018) Heidke skill: G 0.095 (0.047) T 0.158 (0.074) GROC: G 0.568 (0.543) T 0.599 (0.569) JFM 2012 precip probab forecast from mid-Dec

  5. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast JFM 2012 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G-0.019 (0.110) T -0.008 (0.166) Rate of Return: G-0.007 (0.106) T 0.023 (0.171) Heidke skill: G 0.026 (0.287) T 0.002 (0.384) GROC: G 0.605 (0.586) T 0.641(0.636) JFM 2012 temp probab forecast from mid-Nov

  6. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

  7. Stronger El Niño El Nino La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  8. * * * * * * * Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP La Nina signature in atmosphere

  9. Stronger La Niña *** ********* ******* Stronger El Niño

  10. mid-Feb

  11. mid-Mar

  12. mid-Apr

  13. Apr 2010 Apr 2011 Apr 2012 Anomalous westerly wind event Thermocline depth still below average in east, but above average central & west ENSO state: now only cool-neutral SST

  14. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid- April 2012 mid- Mar 2012 Moderate Moderate (+) MJO MJO + + Neutral(-) ENSO Weak(-) La Nina = = Neutral(-) ENSO Weak La Nina

  15. From mid-March

  16. From early April Official

  17. From mid-April

  18. April 2012 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  19. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsApril 2012 East Location Shift NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

  20. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  21. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr or ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

  22. Old one (but Indonesia may not be in right position)

  23. New one