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11.2 Theoretical and Experimental Probability. 9.4.3.2 Calculate experimental probabilities by performing simulations or experiments involving a probability model and using relative frequencies of outcomes.

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11 2 theoretical and experimental probability

11.2 Theoretical and Experimental Probability

9.4.3.2 Calculate experimental probabilities by performing simulations or experiments involving a probability model and using relative frequencies of outcomes.

guiding question what is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability
Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?
  • Lesson Objective: I will be able to find the theoretical and experimental probability of an event.
  • What is the most popular number when rolling 2 dice and adding them?
  • Which happens more when flipping a coin, heads or tails?
guiding question what is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability1
Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?
  • Terms to know
    • Probability
    • Event
    • Outcome
    • Sample Space
    • Complement
    • Theoretical & Experimental Probability
    • Geometric Probability
    • Experiment
  • Probability
    • Measure of how likely something will occur.
    • Always a fraction/decimal between 0 and 1
    • Written as P(event)=
    • Probability of 0 means it will never occur (Vikings winning a super bowl)
    • Probability of 1 means it will happen (I will sleep tonight).
guiding question what is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability2
Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?
  • Event – Something that happens
  • Outcome – result of event
  • Sample space – all possible outcomes
  • Example
    • Event: draw a card
    • Outcome: draw an ace
    • Sample Space: Ace – King
guiding question what is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability3
Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?

Theoretical Probability –

Complement – all outcomes that are not favorable

Ex. P(flipping heads) = ½

P(not flipping heads) = 1 – ½ = ½

  • What is the probability of drawing a king?
  • What is the probability of drawing the king of hearts?
  • What is the probability of drawing a face card?
  • What is the probability of not drawing a face card (complement)?
guiding question what is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability4
Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?

Geometric Probability: probability by using the ratio of area or volume.

Ex. If I throw a dart, what is the probability I land in the white area?

guiding question what is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability5
Guiding Question: What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?

Experimental Probability

Theoretical Probability

  • Actually performing trials
  • Ex. Rolling a die and counting how many times 4 comes up
  • Perform no trials
  • Ex. You would expect to roll a die and get 4 of the time.
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