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Chapter 20

Poverty, Population, and The Environment. Chapter 20. Introduction. 1930s-1950s, US: transition from small-scale, labor-intensive farming to highly mechanized, chemical-intensive, large-scale agriculture 1950-1990: farm residents drops from 23 million to 4.5 million.

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Chapter 20

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  1. Poverty, Population, and The Environment Chapter 20

  2. Introduction • 1930s-1950s, US: transition from small-scale, labor-intensive farming to highly mechanized, chemical-intensive, large-scale agriculture • 1950-1990: farm residents drops from 23 million to 4.5 million

  3. Transition and Development • Agrarian transition • Universal feature of market-driven economic development • Traditional economic development challenge: • Productively absorb millions of workers “freed up” from agriculture

  4. http://www.populationconnection.org/Communications/FactSheets/Demo%20Facts%202004.pdfhttp://www.populationconnection.org/Communications/FactSheets/Demo%20Facts%202004.pdf

  5. The Environment and Development • Solving the economic development problem is part of addressing local and global environmental concerns • Sustainability cannot be achieved unless poverty is directly addressed. What are the links?

  6. 1. Many environmental problems are problems of poverty • Unsafe drinking water • Inadequate sewage facilities • Indoor air pollution

  7. Safe Water and Sanitation by Income

  8. 2. Conserving Resources • Poor people often put an unsustainable burden on the natural capital in their immediate environment • Higher consumption in rich countries has a substantially larger global impact

  9. 3. “Demand” for Pollution Control • Richer people “demand” more pollution control • Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis • As economic growth proceeds, certain types of pollution problems first get worse and then get better

  10. Regulated & Unregulated Pollutants by Per Capita Income

  11. Explanations for the EKC • Rising Education • Political demand for pollution control • Shift in industrial composition • Relative risk considerations: is environmental quality a “luxury good”?

  12. 4. Population Growth • Population growth slows with increased income • As societies grow wealthier, families almost universally have fewer children

  13. World Population, 1900-2100

  14. The Population in Perspective • Population pressure • Major environmental threat in the medium and long-term • Currently, overwhelms the ability of poor country governments to provide educational, health and sanitary services • Rising incomes in poor countries could lead to a natural demographic transition to low population growth

  15. Drop in Population Growth Rates • Population predictions for 2050 have fallen by more than 2 billion people from predictions 20 years ago • 1985-1995: large, unexpected fertility declines in South Central Asia and Africa • Slowed population growth from the impact of AIDS • However: a vicious cycle of population growth and poverty still exists in many countries

  16. An Economic Approach to Family Size • Economic benefits of having children • Economic insurance • Income supplement • Economic costs • Parents child-rearing efforts • Monetary resources

  17. Family Size Strategies • High-investment strategy • Focus all available resources on one or two children • Low-investment strategy • Have many children to increase the chance of them contributing to family income

  18. Why does rising income encourage families to adopt the “quality strategy”? • Lowered infant and childhood mortality • Access to education • Women enter the paid labor force • Prohibitions of child labor

  19. Controlling Population Growth 1. Reduce Poverty • Widely shared gains from economic growth based on labor intensive manufacturing • Redistribution of wealth • Land reform • Debt-for-farmland swaps

  20. 2. Better social safety net • Reduce infant and child mortality • Risk associated with investing in a child’s health and education is reduced • Provide public health care, insurance, and education

  21. 3. Education • Access to education supports high-investment strategies • Lowers cost of such a strategy • Better educated parents produce better educated children • Increased opportunity cost of parents’ time • Educating women should be made a high priority: increases women’s power in household to make fertility decisions.

  22. 4. Family Planning • Large unsatisfied demand for birth control worldwide • Better-educated, wealthier, urban women are better able to actually achieve fertility control • $10 billion: current funding for population control in poor countries • Additional $7 billion a year might reduce long-run global population by 2.5 billion!

  23. Coercive Policies? • 1980, China: One-Child Policy • China: land size of US w/ pop 4X • Rise in sex selection--aborting female fetuses, and increase in female infanticide(?) • “Accepted” for two reasons • Authoritarian political control • Publicly Supported goal • India, 1970s: coercive birth control policy brought to a halt under public suspicion

  24. GOOD NEWS! • Population growth rates have been declining rapidly • “Small” investments in family planning have large impacts on global population • Probably the most cost-effective expenditure to insure global sustainability • Outside of China, coercive policies not needed and likely to fail

  25. Consumption and the Global Environment • Consumption-pollution link 1. Rich country consumption responsible for 2/3 of global pollution 2. High consumption in rich countries is responsible for environmental degradation in poor countries

  26. Natural Capital and Development • Demand for resources in rich countries has depleted the natural capital stock in poor countries, WITHOUT investment of resource rents: • Colonial governments • Falling relative prices for primary resources • Low taxes on resource based industries • Spending on military and imported consumption goods for elites • Debt repayment

  27. Debt • Latin American external debt • 1960: $7.2 billion • 1982: $315.3 billion

  28. Global Debt Relief • Watch the movie! http://www.live8live.com • 2005 G* Summit: Debt forgiveness for 18 poor countries, subject to “conditionality” • Still only 1/6 of global debt of low income countries

  29. Envisioning a Sustainable Future • Bruntland Commission Report (Our Common Future) • “Sustainable development” gains widespread currency • Brighter future will not come without hard and conscious work • Four key sustainability steps

  30. Sustainability Steps • Population and human resources • Food security • Improved technology • Resource conservation

  31. Guns vs Sustainable Butter

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