Trends and Performance 13 May 2006

1. TXWG Grp 4 PCT Flight Clinic Trends and Performance 13 May 2006 Capt David Ayre, CAP Lt Col E. Mooring, CAP

2. Purpose of Trend Analysis • We study history to try and avoid repeating past mistakes • CAPR 60-11 (4 March 2005) • …”Nationally provided safety material and CAPF 5 trend analysis data must be incorporated into the course…”

3. Aircraft Fleet 2005 Nall Report

4. General Aviation Fixed-WingAccident Statistics 2005 Nall Report

5. General Aviation Fixed-WingAccident Statistics Statistics Per100,000 Flight Hours 2005 Nall Report

6. Fixed-Wing AccidentsGA compared with CAP Statistics Per100,000 Flight Hours 2005 Nall Report

7. Sights on Safety

8. Sights on Safety

9. 2002 - Phases of Flight Maneuvering — Includes the following: aerobatics, low pass, buzzing, pull-up, aerial application maneuver, turn to reverse direction (box-canyon-type maneuver), or engine failure after takeoff and pilot tries to return to runway. 2005 Nall Report

10. 2004 - Weather • Weather related accidents continue at about the same rate each year • Account for only 4.5% of all pilot related accidents in 2004 (up from 3.6% in 2002) • Account for highest probability of fatality (93% of weather-related accidents are fatal- up from 71% in 2002)- Leading cause is VFR into IMC 2005 Nall Report

11. Accidents versus Experience Level 2005 Nall Report

12. Student Pilots • Student pilots comprise 14.2% (down from 15.3% in 2002) of all pilots • Student pilots had only 7.0% (7.7% in 2002) of accidents • Why? 2005 Nall Report

13. Mid-Air Collisions • 10 (9 in 2002) midair collisions • 6 (5 in 2002) fatal midair collisions • 10 (9 in 2002) fatalities • Midair collisions usually occur: • On good VFR days • At low altitudes • Near airport traffic patterns • Most at un-towered airports • (in 2002 and 2004, all occurred during daylight hours) 2005 Nall Report

14. Fuel Mismanagement • More than twice a week in 2002, pilots mismanaged fuel flow to the engine. 136 Accidents in 2004 – 16 fatal • Fuel exhaustion - depletion of all useable fuel • Exhaustion -70 accidents - 7 fatal - 12 fatalities 2004 -79 accidents - 4 fatal • Fuel starvation - fuel remains onboard but is prevented from reaching the engine • Starvation - 36 accidents - 4 fatal - 10 fatalities 2004 - 39 accidents - 7 fatal • Fuel Contamination - 18 accidents - 5 fatal 2005 Nall Report

15. 2005 Nall Summary • The accident rates per 100,000 hours for GA aircraft were • 6.22 total and 1.20 fatal. • Pilot-related causes were responsible for three-quarters of all accidents (75.5 percent) and nearly the same percentage of fatal accidents (78.6 percent). • Total pilot-related accidents in 2004 declined 7.0 percent (to 1,067 from 1,147); fatal pilot-related accidents dropped 3.4 percent (to 228 from 236) compared to 2003. • Weather accounted for 4.5 percent of all pilot-related accidents, but 19.7 percent of fatal accidents. The majority of fatal weather accidents in single-engine aircraft resulted from continuing VFR flight into IMC. Single-engine retractable and multiengine aircraft accidents were more likely to have thunderstorm encounters and icing as factors.

16. 2005 Nall Summary • Accidents during personal flying accounted for about seven out of 10 of all accidents (70.6 percent), and nearly three quarters (73.8 percent) of all fatal accidents. Personal flying accounted for about half of 2003 GA activity (50.1 percent). • Maneuvering flight was the category with the largest number of pilot-related fatal accidents (52). This category accounted for almost one out of four fatal crashes (22.8 percent) in 2004. Maneuvering flight was also the number one fatal accident category for single-engine fixed-gear aircraft responsible for almost one-third (29.2 percent) of all SEF fatal accidents. • Only 13.6 percent of daytime accidents resulted in fatalities, but at night, more than one in three (34.6 percent) were fatal.

17. Specific Examples Let’s look at some examples.

19. Big Bear City, CA • 21 Nov 03, Palm Springs SAREX • CFII Pilot (68) and Scanner (67) in a Member-furnished PA-28 • Reported bad winds and turbulence in the pass coming in • Wind forecast placed next day’s flying in question • Crew decides to go home that evening in spite of several warnings – hotel had been arranged. • Aircraft was found on a mountain side at 6,900’msl

21. St. George, UT • 18 Jan 04, Proficiency flight, C-182Q • Private Pilot (73) and Commercial Pilot (72) • Touch and Go Landings • Bounced landing then landed on nose wheel with a prop strike • Then performed a go-around • PIC had 4 hours in last 3 months and a total of 16 hours in this model • NTSB Probable Cause – Improper Flare

23. Las Cruces, NM • 9 Jun 04, Return from CD mission, C-172P • Private Pilot (74) and Observer (64) • Returning at night with a low voltage light • Turning final, another aircraft takes the runway • Pilot goes around and maneuvers to land • Aircraft impacts a mesquite brush mound, separating the nose wheel • Aircraft nosed over and slides into a fence • Minor injuries

25. Mitchellville, MD • 21 Jul 04, C-182 upgrade training and night currency sortie • CFII (43) and upgrade student (27) • Student had 9 hrs in C-182 with 25 takeoffs and landings • Night approach • Flared high and stalled • Hard landing, prop strike, gear bent • Substantial damage

26. Tragic Result

27. Iowa Wing • 22 Mar 03, C-182R, proficiency flight, Instructor and a Private Pilot • West wind favoring Runway 27 (turf, 2400’x70’) • Landed to the North on the turf taxiway (1077’x70) toward a hangar • Back-taxied to South end of taxiway and took off to the North • After takeoff, turned left to avoid hangar and tried to out-climb power lines • Aircraft banked 90° to the right • Right wing struck a fence – Left wing struck power line • Aircraft crashed on right side killing the IP • NTSB investigation continues.

29. NM Wing Aircraft Accident • 12 Jun 03, C-182R, Wing Glider Activity • Tow plane, Private Pilot with 356 flight hours, 147 in this model • SGS-2-33 with IP and student • Immediately after takeoff, tow plane and glider encountered substantial lift • At 300’ AGL, both encounter a severe downdraft • Pilot states – “established 20-degree climb to reduce airspeed to 50 knots IAS.” • Tow plane loses altitude – glider releases & lands • Tow plane impacts hangar in slight left bank • Tow pilot has laceration on left hand & temple – requires surgery

30. FL Wing Birdstrike

31. FL Wing Birdstrike • Mar 05, C-172P Hernando County Airport FL • Pilot was entering traffic pattern, when a large (yet unidentified) bird crashed into the aircraft windscreen. Pilot was uninjured and landed safely. With a small change in trajectory, this could have been a catastrophic accident! • March and April traditionally host the Spring migration and the birds are • known for keeping tight schedules. July and August are when many inexperienced young birds are present and the flying abilities of adults may • be impaired as they molt their flight feathers. August through October is the Fall migration with September being the most hazardous month for bird strikes. • What can you do as a pilot? • • Check airport documentation, NOTAMs & ATIS. • • Plan to fly as high as possible. Only 1% of general aviation bird strikes occur above 2,500’ • • Avoid flying along rivers or shore lines, especially at low altitude. Birds, as well as pilots, use these navigational features • • Slow down when bird activity is heavy. Birds have time to get out of the way up to 80-90 knots - higher speeds mean a greater strike chance. • • If you see a bird ahead of you, attempt to pass above them as birds usually break-away downward when threatened.

32. WA Wing Hard Landing Accident

33. WA Wing Hard Landing Accident • 13 Mar 05, at 1315 PST, a C-182Q, N96985 experienced a hard landing at Sanderson Field Airport, Shelton, Washington • The aircraft was substantially damaged. The 41-year old private pilot-in-command and the 68-year old CFII flight instructor (CAP check pilot) were not • injured. • Activity was a CAPF 5 check ride in VMC • Winds for runway 05 were 030/12G21 - a crosswind component of 7kts at • peak gust. • Aircraft touched down hard. Without realizing the damage to the aircraft, was • flown back to Bremerton, WA. • Maintenance personnel at Bremerton inspected the aircraft and found wrinkles in the skin forward of the right side door post, wrinkles to the firewall and lower • stringer.

34. SC Wing Landing Accident

35. SC Wing Landing Accident • C-182RG N2263T at Rock Hill/York County Airport • During the landing, the aircraft departed the side of the runway, traveled across • the grass median and then entered a taxiway intersection. • Transitioning from the grass back onto the hard surface, the nose gear fork and wheel sheared off of the strut. Subsequently, the prop struck the ground and the engine stopped. No injuries. • 78 year-old pilot has 4,200 hours of flight time and 159 hours in this model. • Winds were 50° off of runway heading at 8 kts. • The FAA and SC Wing are investigating this incident.

36. TX Wing Aircraft Buffeted

37. TX Wing Aircraft Buffeted • Shortly after midnight the C-182 was cleared to taxi to Runway 4 at El Paso International but, was not informed of engine runs from a Delta MD-88 parked at the gate. • As the aircraft taxied behind the MD-88 it was buffeted by jet wash, which caused a prop strike and the right wingtip to hit the taxiway.

38. WY Wing Fatality

39. WY Wing Fatality

40. WY Wing Fatality • 18 Nov 05 a C-182R apparently struck a river gauging wire in the Snake River Canyon, WY • SM Fletcher F. Anderson, 57, died on impact when the CAP aircraft he was flying hit the thick steel-braided cable, which is strung across the river at ~25ft to gauge river height. • The pilot was flying to Afton to pick up another CAP member for a training flight. • Anderson had been a member of the Teton Composite Squadron for over a year. • He was an experienced kayaker, having written a book about rivers in the Southwest and Colorado. He also wrote Flying the Mountains, a training and • safety guide about flying single-engine aircraft in mountainous regions. He was a flight instructor with over 4,000 flight hours and worked as a corporate and charter pilot. • The Wyoming Wing and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) are continuing the investigation.

41. Safety Program 21 December 2005 MEMORANDUM FOR WING AND REGION COMMANDERS SUBJECT: Consolidation of Safety Programs 1. Effective immediately, policy letters which reference the “Sights On Safety” program and the “12 Point Safety Initiative” are rescinded. Both of these were effective programs but, were very costly. 2. Safety campaigns must first be affordable and must stay fresh to remain effective. To that end, we will focus exclusively on “Operation CAPSAFE”, which was developed by my National Safety Officer, Col Lyle Letteer. A brief description of “Operation CAPSAFE” appeared in the October edition of The Sentinel. It can be found at: http://level2.cap.gov/documents/Oct_05_Sentinel.pdf. More details will be provided in an article that Col Letteer has written for the CAP Volunteer, our new magazine. 3. The safety of our people and other resources remains a top priority. This measure will allow full focus on our new safety campaign and provide more return on our dollars. It will also allow us to receive safety suggestions from every member.

42. Aircraft Repairs Cost Big Bucks (Mar 06 Sentinel) Last year, CAP aircraft that were damaged cost a whopping $293,000 to repair. This does not include the C-182 that was totally destroyed in Monroe, LA. More recently (during the last two weeks), a CAP C-172s taxied into a parked Gulfstream IV business jet and a personally-owned Piper Cherokee. How did this happen? CAPR 60-1 guidance for ground and taxi operations is – “Pilots will maintain adequate clearance from all obstacles during all ground operations. When taxiing within 10 feet of any obstacle, pilots shall bring the aircraft to a complete halt, and then proceed at a pace not to exceed a slow walk until clear of the obstacle.” When confronted with tight quarters during ground operations, remember you have options - slow down, use a marshaller, stop, shutdown, push it, tow it, taxi somewhere else, let the FBO move it – just don’t hit anything. Taxi clearance needs to be a continuing operations emphasis item. So far this year, 6 aircraft mishaps have involved ground handling or taxiing into obstructions. All of these are preventable mishaps. We are wasting limited maintenance dollars to repair these aircraft. WE NEED YOUR UNDIVIDED ATTENTION to fix this plaguing problem.

43. Safety “Safe is not the equivalent of risk free” - U.S. Supreme Court, 1972

44. Questions? Capt. David Ayre, CAP 281 367 0519 ayrefam@sbcglobal.net