GEO-POLITICS AND CHANGING POWER RELATIONS

1. GEO-POLITICS AND CHANGINGPOWER RELATIONS Society for International Development (NL) Amsterdam, 23 September 2013 Jan AartScholte Gothenburg University/University of Warwick

2. OUTLINE • Power: the capacity to affect • Power Shifts (1): Countries • Power Shifts (2): Scales • Power Shifts (3): Sectors • Power Shifts (4): Norms • Power Shifts (5): Structures • Coping: the incapacity to control • Creating: the pursuit of possibilities

3. POWER • Power as the capacity to affect: who or what has the capacity to shape outcomes in world politics • So what kinds and degrees of shifts have been taking place in capacities to alter events and conditions of world politics?

4. POWER • Power of actors • Power of institutions (rules and regulatory processes) • Power of deeper structures (underlying patterns of world order) • So looking for shifts in power of actors, norms and structures

5. POWER SHIFT (1a): COUNTRIES • states such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey more prominent in world politics • companies, civil society associations, media from those countries more involved in world politics

6. POWER SHIFT (1b): COUNTRIES • But countries are not monolithic; countries are not actors • Which sectors, regions, classes have ‘risen’ (and declined)? • Farmers of Hunan Province? Amazonian indigenous peoples? Undocumented migrants in Moscow?

7. POWER SHIFT (2): SCALES • power shifts from the country-nation-state • localisation and urbanisation • regionalisation • globalisation • nation-state-countries persist • transscalarity: power to those who can most adeptly navigate across the various scales

8. POWER SHIFT (3a): SECTORS • power shift from public/governmental actors • market actors and private regulatory mechanisms • civil society and multistakeholder initiatives

9. POWER SHIFT (3b): SECTORS • individuals: celebrities, bloggers, etc. • transsectorality: power to those who can adeptly navigate across the various sectors and form coalitions of actors from different sectors

10. POWER SHIFT (4a): NORMS • on the whole new state-country powers seeking better positions within existing regimes rather than new regimes • general persistence of established diplomatic codes, neoliberal discourses, etc.

11. POWER SHIFT (4b): NORMS • more space for ‘non-western’ political cultures in world politics? • different ideas of human livelihood and a good society gain strength in world politics? • more cultural diversity at the core of power in world politics?

12. POWER SHIFT (4c): NORMS • possible shifts in interpretations of, and relative priorities among, core values such as cultural vibrancy, democracy, distributive justice, ecological integrity, individual liberty, material welfare, moral propriety, peace, solidarity

13. POWER SHIFT (5a): STRUCTURE • structure as deeper patterns of world order • power shifts in countries → multipolarity, more decentred state power • less North-South hierarchy; or merely an enlarged core (e.g. from G8 to G20)?

14. POWER SHIFT (5b): STRUCTURE • less racial hierarchy? • greater class inequality and hierarchy • greater urban dominance and rural marginalisation • any effect on hierarchies of age, caste, (dis)ability, faith, gender, sexual orientation?

15. POWER SHIFT (5c): STRUCTURE • decentring of geography with localisation, regionalisation, globalisation? • decentring of governance with polycentrism • decentring of identities and solidarities with pluralism

16. POWER SHIFT (5d): STRUCTURE • sooner rise of hypercapitalism than decline of capitalism • shifts within capitalism with rising commodification of finance, communications and knowledge

17. POWER SHIFT (5e): STRUCTURE • sooner rise of hyperrationalism than decline of modern rationality • i.e. secularist, anthropocentrist, techno-scientist, instrumentalist life-worlds • perhaps more diversity within modernity and more reflexive rationalism • but an even more extractivist ecology?

18. HANDLING THE POWER SHIFTS How can people (policymakers as well as citizens) cope with these multiple continuities and changes of power in world politics?

19. HANDLING THE POWER SHIFTS Navigating Polycentric Governance (1) • map the complex of relevant governance sites • ‘forum shop’ to find most conducive sites • pursue diverse tactics with different institutions and see what brings results

20. HANDLING THE POWER SHIFTS Navigating Polycentric Governance (2) • maximise coherence and coordination in multi-pronged strategy • obtain resources for complex engagement • secure compliance when many escape routes • stay democratically participatory and accountable

21. HANDLING THE POWER SHIFTS Reinventing Democracy (1) • inadequacies of liberal-national democracy in the face of polycentrism • targets of democracy beyond the state: transscalar and transsectoral • constructions of ‘the people’ beyond the nation

22. HANDLING THE POWER SHIFTS Reinventing Democracy (2) • agents of democracy beyond parties and parliaments: civil society and social movements • principles of democracy beyond citizenship and human rights: economic redistribution, eco-ship and cultural diversity

23. HANDLING THE POWER SHIFTSLiving with Uncertainty (1) • face lack of control with equanimity and grace • embrace opportunities to pursue possibilities • prepare publics to expect and accept policy shortfalls

24. HANDLING THE POWER SHIFTSLiving with Uncertainty (2) • fail in the least damaging ways • learn from shortcomings to limit them • deliberate democratically on how to move forward