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Regional Carbon Fluxes in WI:. Cheas IX, June 2006. Moving towards synthesis. Ankur R. Desai Pennsylvania State University, Dept. of Meteorology National Center for Atmospheric Research, Advanced Study Program University of Wisconsin, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Dept. Question.

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regional carbon fluxes in wi

Regional Carbon Fluxes in WI:

Cheas IX, June 2006

Moving towards synthesis

Ankur R. Desai

Pennsylvania State University, Dept. of Meteorology

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Advanced Study Program

University of Wisconsin, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Dept.

question
Question
  • One of several overarching ChEAS questions is:

What is the regional carbon flux?

Do we have to study its ursprache?

pardon
Pardon?
  • WHAT -> define? quantify? explain?
  • IS -> present? past? future?
  • THE -> only one answer?
  • REGIONAL -> scale?
  • CARBON -> CO2, CH4, VOC?
  • FLUX? -> Vertical, horizontal, NBP?
approaches
Approaches
  • Biometric / FIA
  • Ecophysiological
  • Tall tower + footprint models
  • Stand scale eddy covariance towers
  • Tall tower ABL budgets
  • Multi-tower mesoscale inversion
  • Remote sensing (MODIS, LiDAR)
  • Modeling (ED, SiB, Biome-BGC)
a bit about ed
A Bit About ED
  • Ensemble-average canopy gap model (Moorcroft et al., 2001; Albani et al., in press; Desai et al, submitted)
    • Conditioned on stand age and plant height (modifies light environment)
    • Multiple competing plants
    • Disturbance, mortality, harvest, reproduction control dynamics
    • Traditional soil/leaf biogeochemistry
a bit about ed1
A Bit About ED
  • For ChEAS: 40 km radius of WLEF
  • Forcing:
    • Pre-European settlement vegetation
    • Ecophysiological and allometric growth/respiration parameters
    • Long-term climate data
    • Forest harvest statistics
    • FIA to tune forest structure and params.
  • 3 “grid cells” / subregions
what have we learned
What Have We Learned
  • When you’re up you’re up
  • When you’re down you’re down
  • And when you’re only halfway up, you’re neither up nor down
    • Puzzling results when comparing up-scaled estimates from one approach to another at a larger scale
    • You’re asking for trouble if you try to measure something more than once or in more than one way
what have we learned1
What Have We Learned
  • Stand age and species matter
    • Within site IAV < Across-site variability
what have we learned2
What Have We Learned
  • Climate explains much of interannual variability of CO2 flux
    • We’re doing a better job at modeling it
what have we learned3
What Have We Learned
  • But it’s harder to model indiv. stands
what have we learned4
What Have We Learned
  • Over the long term, forest dynamics matter
what have we learned6
What Have We Learned
  • Tree biophysics matter
what have we learned7
What Have We Learned
  • Animals and pests matter
what have we learned9
What Have We Learned
  • There’s a lot of things to worry about when answering “What is the regional carbon flux?”
  • We’re making good progress in spite of that
  • Starting to put together some of our top-down and bottom-up flux estimates
    • Need your help
some numbers
Some Numbers
  • NEE, several methods (gC m-2 yr-1)
    • better in Jun-Aug than all year
some numbers1
Some Numbers
  • NPP (gC m-2 yr-1):
    • FIA 553 (1996-2004 biomass increment) – litter (~100)
    • MODIS NPP (MOD17) 2002: ~600
    • Ahl et al, RSOE, 05 (ATLAS 15 m): 403
    • ED model: 423
moving toward synthesis
Moving Toward Synthesis?
  • Maybe
  • More observations, more models, more processes
    • Will it help?
    • When is it enough?
    • What’s the next step?
  • Working on paper this summer at PSU on regional synthesis