AWRP In-Flight Icing Status - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AWRP In-Flight Icing Status

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  1. AWRP In-Flight Icing Status Marcia K. Politovich, NCAR AWRP In-Flight Icing PDT Lead 2 December 2010

  2. In-Flight Icing Product Development Team • Sponsored by FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program • Agenda • Algorithm development • Severity • NWP model improvements • Outyear Plans • Alaska • MRMS • NextGen

  3. Current/Forecast Icing Product

  4. Algorithm Status • CIP-Severity is operational • FIP-Severity is experimental: will be operational 18 Jan’11 • CIP/FIP-RR debut in July – only upgrades will be bug fixes and minor logic changes • Initial CIP/FIP-IOC (V1.0) by end of FY11 • Developmental work on CIP/FIP-HRRR may begin in FY10

  5. Algorithm Development for NextGen Initial Operating Capability, Segment 1, etc. • CIP/FIP-IOC • Major code rewrite (by Mar’11) • Waaaaay overdue • Streamline! Must do for the HRRR….. • Data-driven: provides basis for higher update rates • Science improvements • Better use of model microphysics • Incorporate ASAP (NASA LaRC satellite) products • Other fuzzy logic improvements

  6. CIP/FIP-IOC

  7. Severity • We’re meteorologists, not aerodynamicists • Aero community’s job is to develop accretion and performance models to simulate flight degradation in icing conditions • Our job is to produce temperature, liquid water content, drop size fields in CIP and FIP • Where NWP guidance produces these fields, use them • Where CIP/FIP says icing and NWP models say no, use other means • First attempts during FY11 • Initial! Preliminary! Not for human consumption!!! • Will work with FAA to coordinate activities with aero folks

  8. Supplied by CIP/FIP Supplied by NWP, obs Supplied by DSS

  9. NWP Model Development • Long-term goal is accurate forecasts of liquid water content and drop size • “fill the field” • begin with drop size metric such as median volume diameter – eventually predict full drop size distribution! • Initial work in FY11 to produce improved microphysics output fields • Evaluate which new input data sets will have most value

  10. Outyear Plans: R&D • Model microphysics for HRRR, develop drop size output • Determine how MRMS/dual-pol can help • Analyze and incorporate regional differences in icing physics • Requirements for Alaska products must be clarified – we have versions of CIP/FIP-AK under development

  11. Outyear Plans: NextGen • CIP/FIP-IOC meet the JPDO Environmental Impacts (EI) definitions for IOC products (hourly updates, 13-km/1000-ft resolution) • FY10 and FY11 tasking moves us toward FOC requirements – particularly, increased temporal and spatial resolution • R&D to incorporate MRMS • Model microphysics progress • Begin CIP/FIP-HRRR • Improved satellite analyses • Severity