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Modeling the Earth System at INPE

Domingos Urbano & Paulo Nobre National Institute for Space Research – INPE Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies – CPTEC Center for Earth System Sciences – CCST SAMOC-3 Rio de Janeiro/Niterói, 11-13 May 2010. Modeling the Earth System at INPE. outline.

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Modeling the Earth System at INPE

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  1. Domingos Urbano & Paulo Nobre National Institute for Space Research – INPE Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies – CPTEC Center for Earth System Sciences – CCST SAMOC-3 Rio de Janeiro/Niterói, 11-13 May 2010 Modeling theEarth System at INPE

  2. outline • Climate Change research programs in Brazil • Global climate model development • Near future enhancements on seasonal to interannual climate predictions at INPE

  3. ClimateChangeResearchPrograms in Brazil • Rede CLIMA: Brazilian network on Climate Change Research (CCR) • 50 research groups on 10 Focal points • Grant: US$ 15 million over 5 years • INCT-MC: National Institute on Science and Technology for CC • 26 research projects covering the science of climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors • 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved • Grant: US$ 3.7 M for 3 years • FAPESP program on CCR • New 15 TF supercomputer facility at INPE • Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System (ESM) • Grant of US$ 5 M per year during the next 10 years

  4. “Rede CLIMA” Focal Points Biodiversity and Ecossistems MPEG, Belém Water Resources UFPE, Recife Regional Development UnB, Brasília Cities and Industry Unicamp, Campinas Renewable Energy COPPE / UFRJ, RJ Agriculture EMBRAPA, Campinas Human Health Fiocruz, RJ Economy of Climate Change USP, São Paulo Climate Modeling INPE CST Coastal Zones FURG, Rio Grande

  5. INCT - MC GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

  6. INPE’s Supercomputer for Climate Change Research ... and will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 20 km !

  7. Development of a Global Climate System Model • A single proposal will be selected • Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo State institution (but engaging institutions from all over Brazil and from abroad) • Build-up of existing experience and models developed in Brazil • Applied to climate change research • No “black-box” solution accepted • Aims to developing capacity in all components of Global Climate System Modelling • Strongly associated to PhD training • Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M

  8. Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Around 2000 Mid 2000s Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Ocean & Sea-Ice Ocean & Sea-Ice Ocean & Sea-Ice The Climate System Sulphate Sulphate Sulphate Aerosol Aerosol Aerosol Non-sulphate Non-sulphate Aerosol Aerosol Carbon Cycle Carbon Cycle Dynamic Vegetation Atmospheric Chemistry Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System

  9. CPTEC.2.0 T213L64 GFDL's FMS SSiB + NCAR’s IBIS MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50

  10. Hydrology Model Health Model AGCM Crop Model Regional Model Atmos OBS 6 hourly Wave Model T-S SST OGCM 3 hourly IC INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite Goal Data Assimilation Coupled Forecast AGCM Atmos FCST daily/hourly OGCM SFC fluxes

  11. INPE’s CGCM FMS implementation Coupler Init Coupled Loop Flux Ocean to Ice Update Ice Model up Atmos Loop Update Atmos Model Fast Atmos Loop End Update Ice Model down Flux Ice to Land Slow Loop Land Loop Fast Update Land Model Land Loop End Update Ice Model down Flux Ice to Ocean Ocean Loop Fast Update Ocean Model Ocean Loop End Coupled Loop Coupler End

  12. Component models… • Atmos GCM: • CPTEC.2.0 mpi/open_mp, • Semi-Lagrangian, • Resolution T62L64; T126L64; T213L64 • Increased PBL and Stratosphere vertical resolution • RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection • Improved stratus parameterization scheme • atmospheric chemistry & aerosols • Land Surface Model: IBIS/INLAND‏ • Dynamic vegetation • Carbon Cycle • Fire Model • Improved hires land surface hidrology

  13. Component models… • OGCM: • MOM4, • Global, 1/4 x 1/4 deep tropics, • L50, 10m spacing upper 250 m, • Philander and Pakanowski vertical mixing • free surface, • fresh water flux, • river inflow; • Dynamical ice model (SIS)‏ • Biogeochemistry model (Topaz, Bling) • GFDLs FSM coupler • Up to 3-hourly coupling interval (lim. atmos radiation)

  14. INPE developments on the atmospheric chemistry modeling CATT Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the RAMS

  15. Including plume rise mechanism trough ”super-parameterization” concept plume top upper bound Injection layer plume top lower bound 1D plume-rise model for vegetation fires Biome: ForestTime duration: 50 mnFire size: 20 haHeat flux: 80 kWm-2 / 30 kWm-2

  16. INPE developments on the surface modeling INLAND

  17. Riverflowandfloodedareas HAND • Aplications over: • Amazônia • Pantanal • Araguaia • Implications: • Flux exchanges between sfc and atmos • Hydrology • Carbon cycle Costa et al., in press

  18. LANDSAT, terra firme apears as flat uniformland Bacia ASU NW of Manaus, 18.000 km2

  19. HAND TerrainMap 3 Classes HAND

  20. Processes Resolved:River inflow effects on salinity MOM3 w/o river discharge MOM4 with river discharge

  21. Ocean biogeochemistry • MOM4p1: OCMIP-2 (diagnostic) + 3 functional groups prognostic • Challenges: • Dynamic Green Ocean Models (Le Quéré & al. 2005): 10 functiona groups • Emergent Biogeography (Follows & al. 2007): emerging functional groups

  22. Ice Cover SimulationINPE COUPLED O-A GCM

  23. OGCM Grid

  24. INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling30 days avrg spinup SST

  25. INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling30 days avrg spinup Precip

  26. Few results from INPE’s CGCM V.1.0 Nobre et al., 2009 Journal of Climate, vol. 22

  27. Vegetation Scenarios Nobre et al. (2009)‏

  28. 1st jEOF SST-Wind Stress200 yrs ctrl run ENSO like mode of variability reproduced by CGCM and amplified by AM deforestation Defor3 CTRL Nobre et al. (2009)‏

  29. Long term departures average (experiment – control) 20 yrs & 10 member • Local rainfall reduction & temperature increase over AM (> CGCM) • Precipitation and temperature increase over eastern OP (is a coupled response -- def.)

  30. Amazon Deforestation Experiment: Increased El Niño Conditions TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION Statistically significant departures are shaded Nobre et al. (2009)

  31. Zonal Velocities over the PacificCtrl (contours);Deforest – Ctrl (shades)‏ Nobre et al. (2009)‏

  32. Pacific Thermocline DepthDeforest – Ctrl (shades)‏ Nobre et al. (2009)‏

  33. mensage • Amazon deforestation induces global rainfall, atmospheric, and oceanic circulation pattern changes which resemble ENSO-like states; • There seems to exist a positive feedback between Amazon rainfall reduction associated with tropical rainforest clearing and ENSO conditions in the coupled model results; • Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling is central to produce the global-scale rainfall and circulation pattern changes due to tropical deforestation.

  34. Planned enhancements of Seasonal and Interannual climate predictions at CPTEC • Enhance AGCM resolution to T213L64 op • Enhance CGCM resolution to global • AGCM T213L64 • OGCM 1/8 degree lat-lon, 50 levels • Increase FCST time to 12 months • Increase ensemble size to 30 per model • Multi-model: RAS, Grell, Kain-Fritsch, Kuo

  35. Thank you pnobre@cptec.inpe.br domingos.urbano@cptec.inpe.br

  36. PART 2 PIRATA PBR-XI e SWE-IV CNPq 38/2009: 48 XCP (1200m) 2 LADCP (bottom) 2 PCD+Tide Gauge

  37. UCTD

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