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Communications Unusual: Heteromorphic Communications. Jeff Pulver, President, pulver.com jeffp@pulver.com September 23, 2003. Good Morning!. Its Great to be in Boston Again! 1997 was the last VON in Boston Back then we discovered Selius which is now better known as Cisco’s Call Manager
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Communications Unusual: Heteromorphic Communications Jeff Pulver, President, pulver.com jeffp@pulver.com September 23, 2003
Good Morning! • Its Great to be in Boston Again! • 1997 was the last VON in Boston • Back then we discovered Selius which is now better known as Cisco’s Call Manager • Right before VON the team gave me a demo of their IP Phone with its ethernet connection right at my home. It was the first time I saw a phone with a RJ-45 connection. • Sonus was funded the day after Fall VON 97 closed as were others. • I know there are entrepreneurs in our collective residence that will leave here with the next big idea!
A Quick Biology Lesson Homomorphic Telephony vs. Heteromorphic Communications
Homomorphic Telephony vs.Heteromorphic Communications • Homomorphic and Heteromorphic Defined and Described: • Homomorphic - Similarity of external form or appearance but not of structure or origin. • Example: Babies to Adults in Humans! • Heteromorphic – Occurs when the organism changes in form and function at various stages. • Example: Larva to Caterpillars to Chrysalis to Butterflies!
Homomorphic Telephony • Homomorphic life forms mature but they do not morph into something else. • The PSTN has matured but after all these years is more or less the same. • Stepper, Electronic, and Digital Switches were more of the same. • Softswitches without an open interface will just be one more version of our past. • Many ITSPs and Broadband IP Voice Service Providers fall into the Homomorphic Telephony Definitions. • (Similar telephony services, just competing on price.)
Heteromorphic Communications • Ultimately IP Communications will evolve as if the PSTN never existed. • Moore’s Law is driving this, not the Telecom Industry • Fiber effected the network core • Silicon effects the edge • I believe we are in the 3rd stage of the Internet’s multi stage process.
Homomorphic Music • If every one uses the same beat and the same melody the lyrics are tiring. • Many bands do covers to start, but as they grow they make their own music. (An artist’s transition from Homomorphic to Heteromorphic helps define musical style.) • And not everyone likes the same music so the more variety the better for everyone. • The goal is to enable variety and to be different!
Some Good News • Incrementally more VoIP minutes are happening around the world. • Xbox Live, Skype, Wireless push-to-talk, Free World Dialup, Yahoo! BB, MSN, AOL, SIPPhone, etc. • More people are communicating with better network ubiquity and they are starting to engage in multimodal communications. • Wireline traffic continues to shifting onto other networks. PSTN not going away but look for a 40% shift in the next 5-7 years. • IP usage continues to grow and will for the foreseeable future.
Current IP Communication Trends • Look for more ILECS to convert pay phones to WiFi hot spots. This is a game of real estate: • BT just following what Verizon and Bell Canada are already doing. More will follow. • It is a logical enhancement to bolster the DSL based services. Look for Hotspots numbers to grow fast. • Wireless ISPs [WISP]s are expanding including FreeNets. • Rural WISPs have started servicing communities via Mountain tops and provide services better than their rural service providers.
Current IP Communication Trends • “Universal Service” can be better served using and leveraging IP Communication Technologies. • As an Industry we need to stop using the term “Internet Telephony.” Use: IP Communications instead. • Turns out that some people are even more literal than myself and this is starting to become a problem on a regulatory level. • ITSPs should now be called IPCSPs. • IP Communication Service Providers.
Sometimes we just don’t see the things that are hiding in plain sight!
Like the First Snow of Winter… • In 1997 VoIP was a lot like the first snow fall. • It caused havoc, • but it did not stick. • Its not that the snow was not cold enough, but the environment was not right yet. • The earth was still too warm • The storm doesn’t drop fast enough to make the change last.
The Second Snow Storm of a Season… • The environment is generally right for the snow to accumulate. • The air and the ground are cold enough • No dramatic changes. • The snow can be disruptive for some but creates immediate opportunities for others.
Today…VoIP is Sticking! • Driven by the critical mass adoption of the Broadband by both Consumers and Enterprises. • Provides an end - to - end environment. • Smart devices have been designed for data networks. • VoIP is moving to the edge from the core. • IP Phones are on the rise with over 2M phones sold. • IP Communication Providers are growing (Hosted, Managed, iCentrex or iPBX). • And VoIP is being integrated in data applications in a way that is not being tracked as telecom nor should it be.
Video is Sticking, too! • Science Project of 1939 • World’s Fair AT&T’s Promise of 1964 • I’m part of the Jetsons’ Generation • Intel’s ISDN solution of 1990s • Video is now in the mix • IM • “End to End” • Conference - based solutions • Apple is helping to make this happen for consumers
Then: 1997 the first snow Hype about threat to carriers Dial-up High Settlements Cost H.323 Internet Telephony Service Providers Two Stage Dialing Arbitrage: Termination Bypass Third World Regulations Now: 2003 the second snow Hype about threat to Universal Service Broadband Accounting rate parity SIP IP Communication Service Providers IP Direct Inward Dialing New Arbitrage: Origination Bypass Stateside Regulations How Has VoIP Changed?
We suffer from too much hype AGAIN! • First in 1996 with ACTA and “threat to the LD Companies” , • IP Telephony was banned in some countries around the world. • ACTA asked the FCC US to ban sale and use of IP phone software and regulate software companies as telecom service providers. • 100,000 Voice over broadband subscribers vs. 150 Million Access Lines • REALITY? At best we are 1 tenth of 1 percent of the market. And that’s making some strong assumptions.
déjà vu at the FCC • How I spent my summer vacation • Meetings @ DOJ/FBI, FCC, NARUC, NTIA & the Whitehouse • Recognizing the pattern I tried to preempt the “ban Internet Telephony” petition • Free World Dialup 03-45 • Pure end to end IP Communication is not telecommunications • Free has helped on the service side but has allowed some regulators to punt • ATT 02-346 • Interconnection to the PSTN is a given • This is about the future of services using the Internet and not direct links
US State Regulators may have a point • If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck maybe you are a duck. • “If all we do is emulate what is, why shouldn’t we have the same regulatory requirements,” one would ask. • However regulation based on form factors makes no sense. • Confusing the “Dial Tone” played on the computer as “network generated” is equally bizarre. • We could be an ugly duckling or a beautiful swan • The Communications network of the future is not about PSTN interconnection. • 2003 State Hot List includes: AL, CO, FL, IL, OH, MI, MN, NC, PA, WA, WI + ????
Change the LandscapeThink outside the Box!Live outside the Box!Deliver Services outside the Box!Being Different is OK.
Replication = Regulation • If all you do is telephony like services, the odds are likely you are going to have to play by telephony rules by both the regulators and the marketplace. • Telephony is a term that will be like the telegraph two generations from now. Forget about “Internet Telephony” • Think Sessions, not Minutes • Think Heteromorphic Communications. Do the kind of things never before possible or practical. Be different!
But it is an uphill battle • In the US there are 100 years of legacy regulations in place that assume a monopoly is in control. • How can you be held responsible to provide 9-1-1 if the Access and Service is not provided by the same company? • Bottom line: We need Telecom Policy Reform that takes into account IP Communications. • Hopefully this will translate into less regulations for everyone. • This may have to become a political platform issue in order to see real change. So we need to deal with these issues today before it is too late.
Help Us Invent the Future • We don’t know what the future wants • But we can make an open enough interface and allow the kids to experiment and explore. • They will make mistakes but the will create new things as well. …Regulation should not get in the way of innovation!
Advise to Startup Voice over Broadband Service Providers: • Start to move from Homomorphic to Heteromorphic much like music artists do. • Create a gray area for yourself. • Bundle IP Communications services with Mobile IP Devices. • Add soft clients support on PDAs and PCs. • Disrupt everyone!
So what is this all about? • It’s about all OUR kids • My kids are 9 1/2 now and in the 4th Grade. • They expect a visual display and navigation buttons like a Gameboy • They navigate intuitively on a GameBoy and on the web. There is nothing intuitive about a keypad • Start building the Heteromorphic Communication Solutions that the kids of tomorrow will be demanding when they become consumers.
What Does this mean? 20% 30% 25% 33.3% 50% Percentageof life using Commerical Internet Note: Someof us have been on theInternet before it wascommercial Radio TV Internet Think Young! You are serving the always on generation!
Don’t Trust Product Managers over 30! • The Internet became commercial in 1993 so we have lots of teenagers who grew up as netizens. Their perspective of the Internet and communication is ‘free and clear’ of a dialtone and a phone form factor. • No offense, but you are no longer to be trusted in your innovative abilities. • Too many years on the PSTN • You are not connected to the future requirements • Your best effort should be on giving kids your interface and so they can design features.
Don’t Build for anyone over 30! • The younger the customer,the longer the product life cycle. • My kids are use to having a screen not a dial pad to work with. And they intuitively “get it.” • Lose the old thinking. Gather data from children playing with your stuff. • Remember it was kids that turned chat into Instant Messaging.
Remember the Killer Application is…Voice • We need to build communication companies, not Telephone Companies. Think Heteromorphic. • Using Presence, Text, Video, with other Internet enabled tools like vXML and SOAP are cool,but usually voice is the best direct real–time communication method. • I suffer from too much asynchronous communication today and I think we all do, or will, in some ways. And the answer is real time multi-modal heteromorphic communications.
What can we do? • Drop the term “Internet Telephony” from our vocabulary. • Time for the ask the US States for a 5 Year Moratorium. Leave the Internet Tax free. • It would be nice if the FCC could preempt the States from making mistakes. States should petition the FCC for action.
What can we do? • We need to worry about International Impact of Domestic US Policy. • Lets all agree to watch this evolution / revolution and work together. • Maybe self-regulation like Wireless might be the way to go. • Maybe this is an issue for Consumer Advocates…maybe something for the FTC rather than FCC to worry about.
The Future is Unwritten!(The Clash circa 1978) • Heteromorphic Communication is exciting. • Many of you are making this future possible. • Onward thru the Fog!
