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Biomass GEM assumptions

Biomass GEM assumptions. Erwan Hemery 12 May 2009. Existing assumptions. Total: 150 MW. Flow chart. How the maximum installed capacity has been derived from the estimated total biomass resource. MC simulation. The parameters that were randomly selected are the:

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Biomass GEM assumptions

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  1. Biomass GEM assumptions Erwan Hemery 12 May 2009

  2. Existing assumptions Total: 150 MW

  3. Flow chart How the maximum installed capacity has been derived from the estimated total biomass resource MC simulation • The parameters that were randomly selected are the: • biomass resource available in New Zealand; • share of the energy production used as direct heat; • efficiency of the plant; and • capacity factor of the plant.

  4. MC assumptions • New Zealand Biomass resource • 2008 biomass resources is in the order of 47 PJ; • 83 PJ per annum (pa) in 2030 and 90PJ pa in 2050 will be available (Scion); • Derating factor to account to the proportion which is technically and economically available leading to 67 and 72 PJ pa; • Biomass resource range between 67 and 90 PJ. • Share to direct heat • In 2007, around 23 % of the total biomass energy production was consumed by the electricity generation sector; • The share of energy used for electricity generation could be anywhere between 23 and 33 %. • Plant efficiency • In the energy data file biomass efficiency of 30 %; • In the future, the plants efficiency will improve as new technologies become available; • Efficiencies ranging from 30 to 40 %. • Capacity factor • The Kinleith power station over the last couple has averaged a capacity factor of 0.78; • Capacity factor ranging from 0.7 and 0.8.

  5. Installed capacity

  6. Delayed earliest commissioning year • There are still a number of barriers and issues (Scion, 2008) that would limit the use of wood resource in New Zealand over the shorter term such as: • forest harvest operational issues and integrating wood residues with the conventional harvest system; • the need for the development of standards. Wood residues represent a large proportion of the energy and a classification of the different type of wood residues (e.g. water content) will be required; and • the need to guaranty security of supply by having better information on the actual volume available and the impact of log harvest driven by overseas markets.

  7. Yearly installed capacity

  8. New assumptions • Total potential installed capacity 150 MW to 230 MW • FOF i.e. capacity factor for baseload – Kinleith 22 %; • 6th power plant in Nelson; • Heatrate was changed from 12000 GJ/GWh (~30%) to values ranging from 30 to 40 %. The heatrate has been decreased by 600 GJ/GWh every 4 years in order to reach 9000 GJ/GWh (~40%) by 2040; • Variable, fixed and capex from the EnergyScape.

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