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European Forward Looking Activities (FLA) . AUGUR stakeholder workshop Brussels, 17-18 November2011 Domenico ROSSETTI di VALDALBERO European Commission, DG Research and Innovation Modesty is a must. Financial and economic crises

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European Forward Looking Activities (FLA)

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    1. European Forward Looking Activities(FLA) AUGUR stakeholder workshop Brussels, 17-18 November2011 Domenico ROSSETTI di VALDALBERO European Commission, DG Research and Innovation

    2. Modesty is a must Financial and economic crises Technological developments Social habits Political movements …

    3. EU Forward Looking Activities Foresight, Forecast, Horizon scanning, Technology Assessment, Impact Assessment, Prospective A long tradition in the EU European Council: Gonzalez Report « Europe 2030 » EP: Scientific Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Council and Member States: Joint Programming (JPI) European Commission

    4. Gonzalez Report “Europe 2030” Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent” Source:

    5. China (1453) India (1431) EU-27 (517) USA (358) Indonesia (263) Pakistan (246) Brazil (214) Nigeria (210) Bangladesh (195) Russia (132) Mexico (123) Japan (120) Ethiopia (119) Philippines (117) Egypt (105) Not a single European country in this list Largest countries by 2025 (100 million or over) Il n’y a plus que des petits pays en Europe, mais certains ne le savent pas (Paul-Henri Spaak) Source: UN

    6. “Nobody cares” – Consumption share Source: European Commission, DG RTD (Global Europe 2030/2050), MIRAGE model, L. Fontagné

    7. EU energy imports Source: European Commission, DG Energy (TREN)

    8. Evolving regimes • 1840-1914 Imperial liberalism • 1914-1945 Mercantilism and war economy • 1945-1980 State interventionism and socialism • 1980-2008 Liberal capitalism • 2008-… State capitalism? Source: European Commission, DG RTD (POLINARES), R. Dannreuther

    9. European Commission Forward Looking Activities A long tradition: FAST and Cellule de Prospective / BEPA Multiannual Financial Perspectives Long-term planning (SF, FP,…) Europe 2020 Roadmap to a low carbon economy in 2050 Transports 2050, Energy Roadmap JRC (cf.IPTS) European Forum on Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA) FP7 – Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities with both qualitative and quantitative exercises

    10. Objectives of EU FLA To anticipate new societal challenges To advise on the main changes that the World and Europe will have to face in the next decades To inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughts To evaluate the economic and social impacts of EU proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment) To scan the weak signals and the wild cards including the potential technological and social breakthroughs To shape a more sustainable future

    11. Controversies on EU FLA Baseline / Reference scenario? Objectivity and bias among experts? Clarity and opacity of models? Conventional thinking and beyond it? …

    12. SSH Expert Groups Three Expert Groups led by DG Research and Innovation (Social Sciences and Humanities) in close cooperation with BEPA: The World in 2025 – report published in 2009 EuroMed-2030 – report published 2010 Global Europe 2050 – report tbp in 2011 and final conference on 28 November 2011

    13. SSH research projects • The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR) • European Foresight Platform (EFP) • The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER) • Science, Technology and Innovation (FARHORIZON, SESTI, CIVISTI, VERA) • Wild cards and weak signals, radical changes (IKNOW and INFU) • Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA, GLOBAL-IQ) • Security and defence (SANDERA) • The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO)

    14. Evolution of world R&D expenditure Note: (China excluding Hong-Kong) Source: European Commission, DG RTD

    15. EU population in 2060 (000 people) The number of people over 65 will double in 50 years (from 85 million in 2008 to 151 million in 2060) The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost triple The share of health expenditures in the EU is expected to increase from 8% of GDP today to 13% in 2060 Source: DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)

    16. Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities (SSH) New calls for proposals published on 20 July 2011: FP7-SSH-2012-2 (small-medium project < 2.5 M€) Forward looking tools and methods for answering major societal challenges (including emerging issues, weak signals and disruptive factors) Deadline: 2 February 2012 at 17:00 (Brussels time) 2012 Calls for Proposals

    17. More information on