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Crop Market Outlook for 2013

Crop Market Outlook for 2013. Fort Dodge, Iowa Jan. 23, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Prices. Projected Corn Yields.

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Crop Market Outlook for 2013

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  1. Crop Market Outlook for 2013 Fort Dodge, Iowa Jan. 23, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Prices

  5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  6. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. World Weather Source: USDC and USDA

  10. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  11. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  13. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  16. Ethanol Stocks

  17. Fuel Prices

  18. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  19. Current Corn Futures 6.71 5.56 5.35 Source: CME Group, 1/23/2013

  20. Current Soybean Futures 13.89 12.41 12.12 Source: CME Group, 1/23/2013

  21. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  22. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  23. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  24. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing • Risk management • Crop insurance • Price protection

  25. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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