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2013 Crop Market Outlook Report in Cedar County, Iowa

Analysis of U.S corn and soybean supply, global production, hog and cattle crush margins, meat production, ethanol trends, fuel prices, and futures projections. Key insights provided for risk management and price protection strategies.

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2013 Crop Market Outlook Report in Cedar County, Iowa

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  1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook Cedar County Coop Grower Meeting Tipton, Iowa Feb. 8, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Prices

  5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  6. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  10. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  15. Ethanol Stocks

  16. Fuel Prices

  17. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  18. Current Corn Futures 6.69 5.34 5.18 Source: CME Group, 2/7/2013

  19. Current Soybean Futures 14.13 12.59 12.23 Source: CME Group, 2/7/2013

  20. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  21. Soy Prices vs. Costs

  22. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  23. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  24. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing • Risk management • Crop insurance • Price protection

  25. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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