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Where is European Private Equity Heading? - 2006 European Private Equity Statistics

Where is European Private Equity Heading? - 2006 European Private Equity Statistics. Gemma Postlethwaite, Thomson Financial 14 March 2007. Private Equity asset class viewed as mainstream, and now a major driver of Capital Markets activity

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Where is European Private Equity Heading? - 2006 European Private Equity Statistics

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  1. Where is European Private Equity Heading?- 2006 European Private Equity Statistics Gemma Postlethwaite, Thomson Financial 14 March 2007

  2. Private Equity asset class viewed as mainstream, and now a major driver of Capital Markets activity Increased importance of reporting, analytics and education supporting continued growth in data contribution European activity and performance continues on a positive trajectory 2006 State of European Private Equity

  3. Thomson Financial’s global data collection efforts supplemented by data collected from GPs via survey questionnaires – preliminary response rate at 61% for PE firms Europe is defined as location of the PE fund Investment Activity Methodology Definitions • Fundraising: only formal closings included • Investments: based on completion date, only equity value • (debt only if provided by PE fund) • Divestments: at cost, and at time of divestment by PE firm

  4. Fundraising All-Time Record at €90bn European Private Equity Funds Raised • Funds of funds allocations double • Pension funds continue to invest massively – baby boomers with a pension shortfall • 79% of funds raised allocated to buyout in 2005 and 2006 Source: EVCA / Thomson Financial / PricewaterhouseCoopers

  5. Fundraising Highs also Mirrored in the Americas Global Private Equity Funds Raised € billions Sources: EVCA / Thomson Financial / PricewaterhouseCoopers for Europe Thomson Financial for other regions

  6. 5th Consecutive Year of Steady Investments Growth • Significant capital available for investment due to two consecutive record fundraising years • 77.5% of amount invested related to buyout deals, while 72.8% of number of deals related to venture Source: EVCA / Thomson Financial / PricewaterhouseCoopers

  7. Exit Conditions Continue to be Very Favourable Divestments – Breakdown by Type M&A Activity, Europe* IPOActivity, Europe* *Public and private deals Source: EVCA / Thomson Financial / PricewaterhouseCoopers Source: Thomson Financial

  8. PE Activity is Fuelling the Global M&A Market • Global M&A activity totalled $ 3.8 trillion in 2006 (including net debt of the targets), up 38% from the $ 2.8 trillion the previous year Source: Thomson Financial

  9. Perception vs. Reality of Leverage Levels European Buyout Transactions • Average leverage on buyout transactions is going up slightly to 5.3x • Average Net Debt / EBITDA in the European stock market stands at 3.4x Source: Thomson Financial NB: Based on calculated or reported ratios, for transactions were the data was available

  10. Is the Affordability of Public Companies Changing the Game? Evolution of P/E Ratios, European public equity marketsForward values based on aggregate mean broker estimates • P/E Ratios in the European stock market have been around 15 for the last 3 years • Brokers anticipate earnings to grow more rapidly that stock prices, leading to a target P/E of 11.3 in 3 years’ time Source: Thomson Financial

  11. All calculations are done at the fund level* by Thomson Financial based on cash flows and NAVs reported by participating LPs and GPs Cash flow database contains 1100+ European funds Performance Methodology Definitions • Pooled IRR: IRR of a group of funds where their cash flows have been aggregated together before IRR calculation • Investment • Horizon Return: IRR calculated with Net Asset Value as capital outflow at beginning of period, Net Asset Value at end of period, and actual cash flow in between * net of management fees and carried interest

  12. Thomson Financial’s Investment Benchmarks European Private Equity Sample

  13. Indicators Show Good Performance European Private Equity Funds Formed 1980-2006Investment Horizon Return for period ending 31-Dec-2006 Source: Thomson Financial on behalf of EVCA

  14. 3 and 5-Year Venture IRR Moves Into Positive Territory European Venture 3-,5-,10-Year Rolling IRRs +8.7% +5.5% +0.5% Source: Thomson Financial on behalf of EVCA

  15. All Horizon IRRs in Positive Territory for Buyouts and Increasing European Buyouts 3-,5-,10-Year Rolling IRRs +13.6% +13.2% +7.2% Source: Thomson Financial on behalf of EVCA

  16. Top Quarter Funds Average Close to 30% IRR European Private Equity Funds Formed 1980-2006, Measured as of 31-Dec-06 Net IRR Percentile 100 268.1% Avg Top quarter 29.1% 10.0% 75 2nd quarter 50 3rd quarter 25 4th quarter 0 Source: Thomson Financial on behalf of EVCA

  17. Private Equity and Public Market Comparators 10-Year Rolling IRR for 2000-2006 *Comparators are Internal Rates of Return (IRR). IRRs for public market indices are calculated by investing the equivalent cash flows that were invested in private equity into the public market index. Then an equivalent IRR is calculated for each index. Calculations based on methodology proposed by J Coller and published by A Long and C Nickles. Source: Thomson Financial

  18. Conclusion: Record Activity • Fundraising record at €89.8bn • Pension funds, funds of funds and banks - main investors with 65.5% • 2006 investments at €50.3bn • Buyouts represent 78% by amount invested • Venture represent 73% by number of investments • Divestments at cost down at €21.8bn • Trade sale continues to be the most popular exit route with 25.6% of the total amount divested • Sale to management registers most aggressive increase of 37% - proof that insiders are optimistic • Write-offs at low levels

  19. Conclusion: Improved Performance • Long-term performance • Stays constant at around 10% net IRR, with top quarter IRR of 29.1% with great returns generated by both venture funds (23.5%) and buyout funds (37.6%) • 5 and 10 year rolling averages are steadily increasing and both in positive territory • Shorter-term performance • Overall 3-year rolling IRR moves up to 11% IRR with both buyout and venture returns in positive territory and trending upward

  20. Want to Know More? Thomson ONE • Public and private company data • Benchmark funds by vintage, location, size, type, etc. • Fund raising activity • Broker research, deal multiples, rumoured and announced deals, news research • And much more!

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