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Workshop on IMTS Synthesis of Asymmetry Studies Budapest, 29-30/05/2013 Author: Nicola Veronese Position: Short-term expert. NOM Prénom Fonction. TABLE OF CONTENT. Chapter I: Introduction, Chapter II: Trade and asymmetries during MEDSTAT programmes
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Workshop on IMTS Synthesis of Asymmetry Studies Budapest, 29-30/05/2013 Author: Nicola Veronese Position: Short-term expert NOM Prénom Fonction
TABLE OF CONTENT • Chapter I: Introduction, • Chapter II: Trade and asymmetries during MEDSTAT programmes • Chapter III: Evaluation according to criteria • Chapter IV: Recommendations • Annex: Bilateral asymmetries during MEDSTAT III
Chapter I: Introduction • In the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP),the European Commission launched three phases of the Regional Programme of Statistics in the Mediterranean Region (MEDSTAT) • MEDSTAT I : 1996-2003 • MEDSTAT II : 2006-2009 • MEDSTAT III: 2010-2013
Foreign Trade Statisticswereincludedamong the prioritythematicsectors of MEDSTAT programmes. • The importance of disposing of accurate and comparable statistics lead to carry out mirrorasymmetrystudiesin order to : • Measurebilateralasymmetries; • Identifytheir causes; • Adoptmethodologicalimprovements for limitingthem in the future
Chapter II: Trade and asymmetries during MEDSTAT • Historical importance of trade in the Mediterraneanregion • Growth of international tradethanks to: • Transport capacity • Telecommunicationmeans • Lowtradebarriers • Consumer behaviour
Value and share of MPCs trade with EU, 2000-2010 (Mio Euro, %)
Value and share of MPCs trade with EU, 2000-2010 (Mio Euro, %)
Main EU imports from MPCs-9, in 2010 • EU imports from MPCs = 60 905 million Euro, of which:
Main MPCs partners in EU imports, 2010 • HS 27: DZ (68,5%), EG (11,7%) and SY (10,8%) • HS 85: TN (47,8%), MA (24,8%) and IL (22,1%) • HS 61-62 : TN (47,0%) and MA (42,3%) • HS 84: IL (65,0%) and TN ( 17,1%) • HS 71 : IL (82,2%), LB (4,5%) and JO (2,7%) • HS 30: IL (94,7%), PS (2,1%) • HS 07: MA (49,6%), IL (25,5%) and EG (19,9%)
Main EU exports to MPCs-9, in 2010 • EU exports to MPCs = 81 493 million Euro, of which:
Main MPCs partners in EU exports, 2010 • HS 84: EG (24,8%) and DZ (23,8%) • HS 85: TN (23,1%), MA (18,6%) and IL (18,5%) • HS 87 : DZ (24,5%) and IL (24,3%) • HS 27: MA (21,5%), TN (17,6%) and LB (16,4%) • HS 30: DZ (27,3%), IL (20,5%) and EG (16,2%) • HS 72: DZ (37,1%), EG (25,8%) • HS 39 : IL (21,7%), MA (19,1%), TN (17,3%) and EG (17,0%) • HS 71 : IL (81,4%), LB (4,9%) and JO (4,6%)
EU imp/exp from/to MPCs by main HS chapters, 2000-2010 The composition of the EU trade with MPCs remained almost stable during the period 2000-2010, with the exception of the trade in aircraft (HS 88). EU imports from: DZ, SY and EG -----> concentrated on HS 27 IL, LB and JO -----> linked with HS 71 MA, TN -----> mainly based on HS 61-62 and HS 85 PS -----> recently based on HS 30, EU exports to MPCs: Concentrated on HS 84, 85, 87, 27. (See table 19 of the report)
Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010 Northbound asymmetries: MEDSTAT I: High in value with DZ and EG High % with JO (82%), EG (69%) and LB (59%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with DZ and EG High % with PS (298%), JO (202%), EG (89%) and LB (59%) MEDSTAT III: High in value with EG High % with PS (367%), JO (45%), and LB (-43%) Main source of asymmetry: Trade in HS 27.
Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010 Southbound asymmetries: MEDSTAT I: High in value and in % with EG (-35%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with EG, DZ and SY High % with EG (-59%), SY (-42%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with EG High % with PS (248%) Main source of asymmetry: Increasing role of HS 27 + HS84, 85 and 87.
Trade among EJPAI countries, 2006-2009 • Overview: • The value of trade among EJPAI countries increased considerably between 2006 and 2009 with the only exception of trade declared by Jordan with Israel and Egyptian imports from Jordan. • Market integration: • PS imp from IL = 73,6%; PS exp to IL = 87,5% • JO imp from EG = 6,1%; PS exp to JO = 5,7%; • IL exp to PS = 4,4%; EG exp to JO =3,9%
Asymmetries among EJPAI countries, 2006-2009 • Eastbound trade: • The asymmetries increased significantly, with the exception of: • EG exp to JO and PS exp to JO. • Westbound trade: • The asymmetries generally reduced, with the exception of IL-PS trade.
Chapter III: Evaluation according to criteria • Relevance ------->Why mirror studies ? • Effectiveness --------> Results • Efficiency -------> Implementation and budget • Utility --------> Indirect benefit • Sustainability --------> Impact
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Effectiveness • Spread the importance of data quality; • Disseminate the methodology for comparing mirror exercises; • Verify the level of comparability between EU and MPCs data; • Verify the accuracy of the sets of MPCs data available in international databases; • Identify the main asymmetries in EU-MPCs data at total and detail level; • Obtain information on the methodology adopted by MPCs for the production of external trade data; • Provide advices for increasing the harmonization of national methodology towards international concepts; • Provide advices to MPCs for changing the system of trade, commodity or partner classifications; • Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries • Provide feedbacks to EU Member States and MPCs on the causes of permanent asymmetries and on asymmetries generated by particular transactions; • Reduce the asymmetries on published data thanks to the correction of data made by the competent administrations • Avoid repetition of asymmetries • Improve the quality of external trade statistics.
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Utility • Mirror exerciseswereuseful: • For improving the comparability and accuracy of EU-MPCstrade data; • As basis for developingfurtherpresentations on statistical data quality (ex. Seminar or asymmetries in MA-FR twinning); • As starting point for further discussions in the framework of othercooperationprojects (DZ-FR Customs); • Correct errors in international datasets • Enhancing national and south-southcooperaton
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Sustainability Mirror exercises produces sustainable results, as they improved: • MPCs human resources skills on mirror exercises methods; • The data published, when the correction of identified errors had been done immediately; • The post mirror exercise data, when the integration of missing statistical information and the elaboration of changes in statistical methodology realized in the medium-term.
Chapter IV: Recommendations • In EU-MPCs trade it might be worth to proceed to an additional round of mirror studies, especially to assess EU-JO, EU-LB and EU-PS northbound trade and to check if the negative discrepancies in southbound trade persist. • EJPAI mirror exercise should continue • The role of Free Zones and QIZ might increase the discrepancies • Permanent asymmetries should be monitored • Improve Customs Procedure/Stat. Procedures kowledge
Management recommendations • Long-term TA produce valuable results; • Launch mirror exercise every 3 years • Centralize/harmonize the studies • Concentrate the activity in a short period • Foreseen a sufficient number of days in line with objectives • Involve EU Member States • Informatics tools might be developed
Annex A • EU-DZ • Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 27, acceptable • Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 87 to be monitored • Note: EU-MPCs in 1 000 Euro
EU-EG • Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 27, to be monitored • Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 8411 (Gas turbines) to be monitored • EG to assess the coverage
EU-IL • Northbound/Southbound: Discrepancies in HS 71, to be monitored • IL to limit the use of « Areas N.E.S. » in the future if possible
EU-JO • Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8411 (Turbojets), to be monitored • Free zones in export of HS 28 (Inorganic chemicals) • Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 8802 (Powered aircraft)
EU-LB • Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8710 (Tanks), to be monitored • Southbound: HS 8802, 8411 and 8703 to be monitored.
EU-MA • Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8541 (Semiconductors), to be monitored • Southbound: Discrepancies HS 2710 to be monitored.
EU-TN • Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 89 and 64. • Southbound: Discrepancies HS 8542, 2710 to be monitored.
EG-IL • Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 271121 (Natural gas). • Westbound: Discrepancies in various chapters. Role of Free Zones to check.
EG-JO • Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 710812 (Gold in unwrought form). • Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 31, to be monitored
IL-JO • Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 7108 (Gold) and HS 7112. • Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 61 and HS 28. • IL to change valuation of goods after processing
EG-PS • Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 04, 07 and 2716. • Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 64 and HS 48.
PS-JO • Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 6802 (Building stones).
IL-PS • Eastbound/Westbound: The exercise was done according to a tentative method of using data by activity sector. • IL and PS need to cooperate on IMTS.