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Winter time T-PARC planning. Yucheng Song IMSG at EMC/NCEP /NOAA Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS /NOAA. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/T-PARC_IPY.html. Princeville, Kauai , Hawaii 4-6 December 2007. WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM. Dave Emmitt Simpson Weather Assoc.

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Winter time T-PARC planning

Yucheng Song IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NOAA

Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/T-PARC_IPY.html

Princeville, Kauai, Hawaii

4-6 December 2007


With contributions from
WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM

  • Dave Emmitt Simpson Weather Assoc.

  • Chris Doyle Meteorological Service of Canada

  • Alexander Kats Roshydromet, Russia

  • Gary Wick ESRL/NOAA, CO

  • Dehui Chen CMA

  • David Richardson ECMWF


With contributions from1
WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM

Yoshio Asuma Japan

Craig BishopNRL

Juan Caballero Mexico

Edmund Chang Stony Brook University

Chris Doyle Meteorological Service of Canada

Brian Etherton University of North Carolina, Charlotte

Jenni Evans The Pennsylvania State University

Pierre Gauthier Canada

Ron Gelaro NASA/GSFC

Gregory J. Hakim University of Washington

Steve Koch NOAA/ESRL

Rolf Langland NRL

Chungu Lu CIRES / NOAA

Sharanya Majumdar University of Miami

John Manobiunco ENSCO

Tim Marchok NOAA/GFDL

Lynn McMurdie University of Washington

Mitch Moncrieff NCAR

Robecca Morss NCAR

Dave Parsons NCAR

Simon Pellerin Meteorological Service of Canada

Mel Shapiro NOAA/OAR

Istvan Szunyogh University of Maryland

Chris Velden CIMSS / Univ. Wisconsin

Gary Wick NOAA/ESRL

Milija Zupanski CIRA/Colorado State University


Links between thorpex ipy
LINKS BETWEEN THORPEX & IPY

  • International Polar Year (IPY):

  • Multi- and interdisciplinary international research experiment 03/2007-02/2009

    • Study areas of strongest climate change impact

    • Comprehensive research in both polar regions

    • Strong links to the rest of the globe -

  • Theme 3 (of 6): “Advance our understanding of polar - global interactions by studying teleconnections on all scales.”

  • THORPEX– A World Weather Research Program (WWRP):

  • Accelerate improvements in skill/utility of 1-14 day weather forecasts

    • Long-term (10-yrs) global research program in areas of:

    • Observing system, data assimilation, numerical modeling/ensemble, socioec. appl.

    • Strong link with operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers

    • International program under WMO

    • Planning initiated with discussions about North Pacific experiment =>

  • Opportunities for IPY - THORPEX Collaboration

  • Joint THORPEX-IPY Observing period –

    • Major opportunity for accelerating observing system design work

    • Improved weather forecasts for polar regions & IPY activities

    • Scientific investigations:

  • Link between weather and climate processes

  • Mid-latitude – Polar interactions

  • THORPEX IS THE WEATHER COMPONENT OF IPY


  • H ypotheses
    HYPOTHESES

    • Rossby-wave propagation plays a major role in the development of high impact weather events over North America and the Arctic on the 3-5 days forecast time scale

    • Additional remotely sensed and in situ data can complement the standard observational network in capturing critical multi-scale processes in Rossby-wave initiation and propagation

    • Adaptive configuration of the observing network and data processing can significantly improve the quality of data assimilation and forecast products

      • Regime dependent planning/targeting

      • Case dependent targeting

    • New DA, modeling and ensemble methods can better capture and predict the initiation and propagation of Rossby-waves leading to high impact events

    • Forecast products, including those developed as part of the TPARC research, will have significant social and/or economic value


    CASE DEPENDENT, ETKF-BASED ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    March 04

    March 05

    March 06

    March 07

    Verification event

    Sharan Majumdar


    March 04 ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    March 05

    March 06

    March 07

    Atmospheric River seen from SSM/I water vapor channel

    Gary Wick


    Atmospheric River as seen on the PQPF figures ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    March 04

    March 05

    March 07

    March 06


    PROPOSED OBSERVING PLATFORMS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase

    allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations

    as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and US continents

    Day 3-4

    Radiosondes

    Russia

    Arctic

    VR

    Day 5-6

    Radiosondes

    Tibet

    CONUS

    VR

    D 2-3

    G-IV

    D 1-2

    C-130

    UAS

    D-1

    UAS

    P-3


    Concept of operations
    CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Identify potential high impact weather events over NA and Arctic

      • At 5-7 day lead time, to improve shorter lead time forecasts

      • Use NAEFS ensemble forecast products

      • Weather Service forecaster involvement from US, Canada, Mexico

    • Determine sensitive areas affecting verification events at different times

      • Use ETKF or ET or other techniques

      • Inter-compare results from NCEP, NRL, NASA/GSFC, ECMWF

      • Consensus decision

    • Observe conditions in sensitive areas

      • Use various observing platforms as sensitive areas move through their domain as lead time shortens


    Concept of operations 2
    CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS - 2 ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Assimilate all standard and adaptive observations

      • Use operational DA and forecast systems

      • Improved NAEFS forecasts

    • Generate new experimental products based on improved NAEFS system

      • These include sea ice, freezing spray, river flow forecast etc.

      • Solicit direct feedback from user community

      • Enhance products in post-TPARC developments

    • Evaluate impact of adaptive observations and other NWP methods

      • Use either operational or enhanced DA/Modeling/ensemble systems

      • Consider differences between DA/forecast system with/without adaptive data

      • Inter-compare operational and experimental NWP systems


    Platforms planned
    Platforms planned ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • G-IV Stationed in Japan

      (Japan contacts: YoshioAsuma and Tetsuo Nakazawa)

    • Can reach 45,000 feet high, centered on 00Z UTC

    • Maximum range:3800 nmi

    • Maximum duration: 8 hrs 45 mins

    • Contribution from NWS WSR program

    • Backbone of the whole program

    • Requested 120 flight hours 360 dropsondes

    • ISSUES:

    • Air traffic control

    • Yokota or Misawa AFB, Japan?

      (AOC contacts: Jack Parrish and Michele Finn)


    G-IV ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM Stationed in Japan


    C 130
    C-130 ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    C-130 out of Anchorage (USAF)

    • Can reach 35,000 feet high, centered on 00Z UTC

    • Maximum range: 1800nmi

    • Maximum duration: 10 hrs

    • Part of NCEP WSR program


    Russia roshydromet
    Russia Roshydromet ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Alexander Kats

    • Nina Zaitseva

    • Dr. Ivanov (Director of CAO)

    • Dr. Mikhail D. Tsyroulnikov

    ISSUES: Roshydromet could not pay for the extra sondes. 

    proposals for both the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP) funding

    (PROVED)


    Enhanced siberian network
    Enhanced Siberian network ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Additional 06 and 18 UTC observations from the subset of about 40 designated operational stations about 6 weeks

    • - Space and time distribution (and may be amount of additional observations on each station) will be uneven depending from the weather conditions. - They will be carried out during 10-15 24-h intensive observing periods (IOPs) with 6-hrs soundings in some sensitive areas to be determined during the campaign depending from the weather conditions - Depending on geographical location of sensitive area, during each IOP about 20 of the available 40 stations will be requested (in 18-24 hrs prior to the IOP beginning).


    Continued
    Continued ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Expected maximum total amount of additional soundings during the campaign is 15 (IOP) x 20 (sites) x 2 (extra soundings) ~ 600 soundings.

    • Taking into account possible uneven distribution of sounding it is necessary to have on each stations consumables for some 25 additional soundings to avoid running out of consumables at any of the stations before the end of the campaign.

    • This gives us maximum amount of additional consumables to be distributed for as many as 25 (soundings) x 40 (sites) ~ 1000 soundings. Remaining consumables will be used for the regular soundings after the end of the campaign.


    Additional stations that we suggested ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM


    Additional stations requested by winter T-PARC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM


    Expected stations by the end of 2009
    Expected stations by the end of 2009 ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM


    Global hawk
    Global Hawk ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    Contacts:

    NOAA

    • Gary Wick PSD/ESRL/NOAA

    • Todd Jacobs NOAA

      NASA

    • David Fratello DFRC Systems engineer

    • Chris Naftel DFRC Project Manager

    • Phillip Hall OMAO/NASA

      ISSUES:

    • Air traffic control

    • Lidar and dropsonde capability?


    NOAA THORPEX POTENTIAL OBSERVATION SYSTEM ENHANCEMENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    FOR WINTER T-PARC (JAN 09 – MAR 09)


    NASA Global HAWK dimensions and payload compartments ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM


    Potential for high altitude uas availability
    Potential for High Altitude UAS Availability ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • NOAA UAS program actively pursuing a joint demonstration in March 2009

      • Would utilize NASA Global Hawk with operations from NASA Dryden

      • Plans for completion of a dropsonde system by March 1

      • Potential for flights joint with studies of “atmospheric rivers”

    • Schedule is very challenging but not impossible

    • Primary hurdles

      • NOAA UAS program not yet funded

      • No formal commitment of aircraft availability from NASA

      • Potential FAA limitations on release of dropsondes from unmanned aircraft


    Global hawk endurance from nasa dryden
    Global Hawk Endurance ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORMFrom NASA Dryden

    20 hr

    15 hr

    25 hr


    Background slides
    Background Slides ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM


    11 ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORMth Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems, Nov 2007


    Chinese participation
    Chinese participation ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM


    Tibet observation network
    TIBET OBSERVATION NETWORK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • IMPORTANCE OF TIBET PLATEAU

      • Origin of many storm systems in the Northern Hemisphere

      • Well known important diabatic heating and dynamic forcing effects

      • Strong influence on East Asia jet stream and downstream weather

    • HOW THE DATA WILL CONTRIBUTE

      • Look for possible ways to take adaptive RAOB observations

        a. Fixed intensive observation periods (Jan 09 – Mar 09)

        b. Adaptive observing (ETKF or other methods)

      • Optimize Chinese observational network

      • Fill data gap in the network

      • Assimilate data into different DA systems

    • PROGRESS

      • GPS sondes, profilers and an array of surface mesoscale networks

      • Which are expected to leave in place after the field phase of T-PARC


    Network ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORMfor Tibetan E-Plateau observation


    PROPOSED OBSERVING PLATFORMS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • NOAA and NASA satellites

    • G-lV out of Japan, ~120 hrs in Jan-Feb period

      • G-IV 45,000 feet high, centering around 00z

    • C-130 – covering the mid Pacific over the same time period (USAF)

      • C-130 30,000 feet high, centering around 00z

    • P3 (or other asset)

      • East Pacific or western US (planned contribution by HMT/NOAA)

    • Enhanced Siberian network

      • Potential Roshydromet / NOAA and/or NRL contribution

    • Tibetan Plateau

      • Asian THORPEX community contribution

    • Other possible platforms (see T-PARC plan)

      • Global Hawk from Dryden

        • Contributions from NOAA UAV program


    Onr p 3
    ONR P-3 ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Use DWL on P3 to profile winds below & at flight level

    The ELDORA radar is provided by NCAR. The P3DWL is

    provided by ONR. The two possible locations for the P3DWL

    are noted as (1) or (2).


    P3 Platform ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM


    P3dwl
    P3DWL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    The MLX-16 coherent Doppler lidar built by LMCT

    for the US Army (ARL).


    Scanner

    Cylindrical scanner ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    Shown here is the scanner

    as mounted in the CIRPAS

    Twin Otter. The white fairing is

    used to reduce aerodynamic drag

    Scanner


    P3dwl data description
    P3DWL data Description ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Nominal vertical domain:0 – 6 km (assumes flight level ~ 6.5 km)Line-of-sight products

    • Nominal spacing between profiles: 2 km (500m with 90 deg sector processing)

    • Vertical resolution:~ 50 meters

    • Accuracy U and V components:.05 m/s (assuming homogeneous wind field)

    • Accuracy W component:.1 m/s

    • Additional data collection capabilities: All angles within ±30 degrees of nadir All angles within ±30 degrees of flight path

    • DWL wind profiles:Buffer format, real time processing, single profile file size about 10 KB


    Two types of noaa satellite programs
    Two Types of NOAA Satellite Programs ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites(POES)

    Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

    (GOES)

    Polar Orbiting Satellites

    Geostationary Satellites

    N

    Fairbanks,

    Data Acquisition Site

    Wallops, Virginia

    Wallops,

    Virginia

    Fairbanks,

    Alaska

    Wallops,

    Virginia

    N

    Data Acquisition Sites

    Subsatellite

    Point

    540 Mi

    Equator

    Equator

    22,240 Mi

    S

    Orbit Path

    S

    Continuously monitors the Western Hemisphere

    Each satellite covers the entire Earth twice per day

    • Same geographic image over time

    • Full image every 30 minutes

    • Northern Hemisphere imaged every 15 minutes

    • Usable images between 60°N and 60°S

    • Information is used for short-term weather forecasting and severe storm warning/tracking

    • Each orbit is 102 minutes

    • Global coverage every 12 hours with 1 satellite

    • Images are global and include the poles

    • Information is used for long-term weather forecasting and climate monitoring


    Decision making
    Decision Making ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    Communication setup (webpage and emails)

    • Identify High impact weather (HIW) events

      • Inputs from US field offices, research interest groups, Canada, Mexico in advance

    • Sensitive Area Calculations (SACs)

      • Run NCEP targeting software

      • DTS (ECMWF/UK MET OFFICE)

      • NRL targeting and others?

    • Select tracks and stations

      • Fixed tracks for easier air traffic control?

      • Flexible tracks (UAV)?

      • Siberia/Tibet Plateau stations

    • Decisions sent out

      • 18-36 hours ahead of time

      • Flexibility of change with 24 hours notification


    Canada and mexico
    Canada and Mexico ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    Contacts:


    Contribution from mexico
    Contribution from Mexico ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Extra-Rawinsondes (if expendable material is provided)

    • Ensemble evaluation for the Mexican region

    • At least one meteorologist volunteering in operational activities


    Plans for real time parallel at ncep
    Plans for real time parallel at NCEP ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    • Data denial experiment

      • T126 control and operational experiments

    • Impact:

      • Conventional metrological fields, differences display alongside the operational forecast and analysis

    • Verification:

      • Post field program period

      • Legacy programs (Fit to obs, fit to analysis, scores)

        KEY ISSUE: T-PARC identity BUFR headers


    Small uav
    Small ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORMUAV

    Contacts:

    • Gary Wick PSD/ESRL/NOAA

    • Todd Jacobs NOAA

    • John Porter U of Hawaii

      ISSUES:

    • Which UAV to choose?

    • Air traffic control

    • How to allocate the funds for UAV and P3?


    NOAA THORPEX POTENTIAL OBSERVATION SYSTEM ENHANCEMENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM

    FOR WINTER T-PARC (JAN 09 – MAR 09)


    MAHALO!! ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON A WINTER STORM


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