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Outline. Why Wind Power in China Development of Wind Power Worldwide and in China Wind Energy Potential Study for China Discussion on Wind Policy. 1. Why Wind Power in China. Global CO 2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel. CDIAC, 2007.

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  1. Outline • Why Wind Power in China • Development of Wind Power Worldwide and in China • Wind Energy Potential Study for China • Discussion on Wind Policy 1. Why Wind Power in China

  2. Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel CDIAC, 2007 The new-type “energy crisis” is not from the shortage of energy reserves but from the carbon emissions during fossil fuel burning and their implications with climate change.

  3. Carbon Emissions from Fossil-Fuel in China • Carbon emissions have increased by 79.2% since 2000 due to rapid growth of coal consumption. • Coal accounted for 99% of the emissions total in 1950 and 73% in 2006 • 2006 marks the first year China's per capita emission rate (1.27 metric tons of carbon) exceeded the global average (1.25 metric tons of carbon). global average CDIAC, 2007

  4. CO2 Emission from the USA and China • China surpassed the US and became the largest CO2 emitter in 2006 due to fossil-fuel use and cement production. • China and US take over 40% of the global CO2 emissions in 2007 CDIAC, 2007

  5. China Power Mix Source: Expert Interview; Literature research; McKinsey analysis 1 Tonnes CO2 associated with generation of 1 MWh electricity from coal 6000 TWh ~ 6,000,000,000 Tonnes CO2 per year

  6. Sea Level Rise

  7. Outline • Why Wind Power in China • Development of Wind Power Worldwide and in China • Wind Power Potential Study for China • Discussion on Wind Policy 2. Development of Wind Power Worldwide and in China

  8. Growth of Wind Power Installed Capacity Installed capacity is increasing EXPONENTIALLY! IEA in its 2007 alternative Policy Scenario projected the possibility of an 18-fold increase in wind electricity generation globally by 2030. (WWEA, 2007)

  9. Wind Power in China Capacity has been doubling every year in recent years- the market becomes No.1 in the world.

  10. Wind Power in China (cont.) • The total capacity of wind power in China reached 12.2 GW, realizing the target of 10 GW by 2010 two years earlier. • The target of 30 GW by 2020 (in 2007) will be adjusted to the 100 GW in the “Development Plan for New Energy ”. • Three offshore wind turbines have been installed near to Shanghai Dongdaqiao ; the entire wind farm will consist of 34 wind turbines (3MW) and is expected to supply electricity for Shanghai Expo in 2010.

  11. Turbine Manufacturing – From Foreign to Domestic Annual Market Cumulative Market

  12. Installed Wind Power Capacity, 2008 Data source: Pengfei Shi, 2008 China plans to build several10GW wind bases in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Jiangsu by 2020.

  13. Electricity Generation and Wind Electricity Ratio for Top 5 Wind Power Countries • China is the 2nd largest country of electricity consumption • Demand for electricity in China was growing at an annual rate of near to10% in the past decade. • Wind electricity only accounts for 0.4% national wide.

  14. Outline • Why Wind Power in China • Development of Wind Power Worldwide and in China • Wind Power Potential Study for China • Discussion on Wind Policy 3. Wind Energy Potential Study for China

  15. GEOS-5 Wind Fields • Combination of a wide range of observations and the simulation results from AGCM. • Global coverage with horizontal resolution: 2/3 ×1/2 degree and records of wind activity every 6 hours • A terrain-following coordinate system defined by 72 vertical layers; 3 lowest layers being used to interpolate the wind speed and air density at 80m • 5-year interval from 2004-2008 was adopted in present study to account for the inter-annual variability

  16. Wind Turbine Density Empirical Relation: AT=5D×9D=45D2 , where D=Rotor Diameter to ensure the power loss ≤ 10%. (Masters, 2004) Unit Area of Onshore Turbines: GE 1.5 MW turbine, D=82.5 m: AT = 0.31 km2 1km2 land area: 3~4 onshore turbines

  17. Land use Constraint and Slope Constraint Point Map Polygon Map Raster Map Land use Slope

  18. Onshore Wind Power Potential for China (Watts per Unit Land Area)

  19. Capacity Factor (CF) CF: the power yield expressed as a fraction of the rated power potential of the installed turbines over the course of a year. Typical Range: 20% to 45%

  20. Spatial distribution of capacity factors evaluated for deployment of the 1.5-MW turbines Only account the regions with CF ≥ 20%

  21. Onshore Wind Energy Potential and its Fraction of the Electricity Generation of Each Regional Grid for China Constraints : Suitable areas only and capacity factor ≥20%

  22. GIS Module

  23. Offshore Constraints Distance: 50 nautical miles (or 92.6 km) from the nearest coastline Water depth: 0 – 200m

  24. Onshore and Offshore Potentials for Wind Energy in China Constraints : Suitable areas only and capacity factor ≥20% • Onshore wind resources could provide potentially as much as 24.7 PWh of electricity annually, more than 7 times current national electricity consumption. • Offshore wind energy potential along the coastline of China mainland is also significant and comparable to current load demand in China

  25. Features of Wind Concession Policy in China: Competitive Tendering Tariff • Investors are selected through public tendering by the government. • The concession period is set at 25 years. • Power purchase agreement. • Price difference shared across the national grid. • Guaranteed price period of 30,000 equivalent full load hours; price in the subsequent period set by the power market. • 70% local-content requirement, since 2005

  26. Cash Flow Model under Wind Concession Policy , Pt: bus-bar price of wind electricity to be estimated (RMB/kWh) during the initial fixed price period; Pt = 0.4 RMB/kWh during the subsequent period; (1 US dollar ≈ 6.8 RMB; 1 EURO ≈ 8.8 RMB )

  27. Bus-Bar Price Estimated of Wind Electricity for China

  28. Sensitivity of bus-bar price to parameters in the Cash Flow model

  29. Cumulative Available Wind Electricity at Different Bus-bar Price Level for China Total Electricity Generation in China 2008: 3.4 PWh At 0.516 RMB/kWh (about 0.76 US Cents/kWh, or 5.9 EURO Cents/kWh), corresponding to the CF of 27.8%, total wind-generated electricity will be 7 PWh, comparable to total electricity demand projected for 2030.

  30. Concluding remarks • Meeting the increased demand for electricity anticipated for China in 2030 will require construction of the equivalent of 800 GW of coal-fired power plants. • If the additional electricity is supplied mainly by coal, emissions of CO2 in 2030 might increase by 3.5 gigatonnes per year. • If 30% additional electricity is supplied by wind in 2030, it will require installation of 640 GW of wind farms over the 20-year period. • Approximate cost is estimated 6 trillion RMB not formidably high compare to current China’s GDP of 26 trillion RMB).

  31. McElroy, M. B., Lu, X., Nielsen, C. P., & Wang, Y. (2009) Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China Science325, 1378-1380.

  32. Outline • Why wind power in China • Development of Wind Power Worldwide and in China • Wind Energy Potential Study for China • More Discussion 4. Discussion for Wind Policy

  33. Successful Biding Price in the previous Wind Concession Projects Weight of price point decreased Preference of average price Lowest price Won

  34. Feed-in Tariff (released on 27th July, 2009)

  35. Pros and Cons of Feeding-Tariff Policy Pros • Guarantee the interest of return for wind farms • Attract more private or international investors to develop wind energy • Simplify the government approval procedure for wind projects • Boost a healthier industry chain for wind power Cons • Still lack of incentive policy to improve the integration of transmission grid and to coordinate the grid for larger wind power penetration or other renewable energy development.

  36. Acknowledgement Thanks to the my advisor, Prof. Michael B. McElroy for his instruction during this study. The GEOS-5 data were provided by NASA-GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office). I am indebted to Yuanjian Li for research assistance and Chris Nielsen, Richard M. O’Connell, Sebastian Meyer, Junfeng Li, Jing Cao and Yuxuan Wang for their valuable advice. This research was supported by NSF grant ATM-0635548.

  37. Thanks!

  38. Seven Wind Farms in Ref 8 Capacity weighted average of CF: 25.8%

  39. Lessons from the Wind Concession • SOEs provide unreasonably low biding price to win the projects • Private or international bidders hesitate to bid. • Put pressure on wind turbine suppliers (60-70% of project cost) • No income tax contribution to local government

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